USC's Caleb Williams the No. 1 pick of NFL draft? Not so fast

USC quarterback Caleb Williams (13) react with the crowd after beating Colorado 48-40.

Staff Writer

Published Oct. 13, 2023 Updated Oct. 14, 2023 6:52 PM PT

USC quarterback Caleb Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, is the heavy favorite to go No. 1 overall in next spring’s NFL draft.

He hoisted his team out of a 17-0 hole against Arizona last Saturday and wound up running for three touchdowns in a thrilling, triple-overtime victory.

To take the current temperature on Williams, The Times this week spoke to evaluators from three NFL teams — two in the AFC, one in the NFC — who provided their candid observations on the condition of anonymity, as they typically do not publicly open their notebooks and share what they’ve compiled.

For the purposes of this story, they are identified as Scouts 1, 2 and 3.

Not surprisingly, each was effusive in his praise for Williams.

“Obviously he’s a unique talent,” Scout 1 said. “A lot of people will talk about [Kansas City quarterback Patrick] Mahomes and those kinds of things. I definitely see that kind of adaptability with Caleb’s arm talent. He can make those off-platform throws and those awkward-leaning throws, and make them accurately.

“It’s hard to compare anyone to Patrick because he’s probably the best player on the planet right now. The difference to me is Caleb is a much more talented and powerful runner. I saw him play live recently and I was trying to think of someone to compare him to. I’m a little bit older, and guy who came to mind for me was Steve Young, with his running ability and the fact he’s so hard to tackle.”

Scout 2 said the clutch performance in the Arizona game indicates further growth in Williams as a leader.

“I was TV scouting that,” said Scout 2, meaning he wasn’t at the Coliseum. “But you could see him pulling the guys together. You could see in their faces that he had everyone’s attention. They were all ready to run through a wall for the guy. When you go to the school and talk to the staff, and you see him at practice, I think that part of him has grown a great deal. Just the respect his teammates have for him.”

Said Scout 3: “The first thing that stands out is how dangerous he is on the move. He shows special improvisational ability. When the play breaks down, he’s accurate on three levels. He’s got excellent arm strength. He can launch the deep ball with ease. There’s not much to dislike about him.”

So does that mean Williams is a shoo-in for the top spot in the draft? The scouts were not in total agreement.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams scrambles out of the pocket against Arizona.

At the moment, the other candidate for that spot is North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, who last weekend scorched Syracuse for 497 total yards and four touchdowns.

“I know a lot of scouts who have done both players, most of them are scouting directors, and a handful of them have Drake Maye higher than Caleb,” Scout 2 said. “That will be the storyline whenever it’s talking-head season about the draft. That’s going to get pumped up a lot, especially if what a lot of people expect to happen to USC over the next couple of weeks, if they take a tumble now that they are going to play some really good teams.”

USC’s remaining schedule has the 10th-ranked Trojans at No. 21 Notre Dame, at home against No. 16 Utah, at Cal, home against No. 7 Washington, at No. 8 Oregon and home against No. 18 UCLA.

Scout 3 was unwavering about Williams being the No. 1 pick.

“It’s a no-brainer to me,” he said. “Drake Maye is a first-round pick. He’s a really good quarterback as well. But Caleb can just do so much. His arm talent is rare. His ability to throw on the move is rare.”

Despite his robust body of work, does Williams still have boxes to check?

Yes.

“What I’d love for him — they’ve lost to Utah the last couple of years,” Scout 1 said. “I’d love to see him really play one of his best games in one of those big moments. It’s not like he’s played poorly in those games. But [former Ohio State quarterback] C.J. Stroud had his best game against Georgia in that playoff game. That really stood out. He showed a lot of things in that game on that stage. So hopefully Caleb has an opportunity to play on a stage like that in a game that has a lot of energy and a lot at stake. To have one of his signature performances in an atmosphere like that would be outstanding.”

Said Scout 2: “There are a couple things I’d like to see him get better at. Just minimizing the hits that he’s taking. It’s an interesting balance because he’s so creative and that’s what makes him special. But sometimes it’s just like, take the easy play, take the check-down, take whatever the defense is giving you and minimize the hits you’re taking. I think he takes too many hits.

“Those over the course of a 17-game, 18-week season, plus hopefully postseason, they’ll take a toll. Especially when in the NFL the defensive players are bigger, faster, stronger. So you figure the force of impact of those car crashes is that much more. Let’s be smart and pick and choose when you’re extending plays and how you’re extending them.”

Scout 2 said he also would like to see Williams “speed up his clock.”

USC quarterback Caleb Williams (13) stands in the pocket against Arizona.

“He has timing,” he said. “He can drop back and get the ball out. Some of that’s due to the offense he runs, the Air Raid system, but I’d like to see him speed up his clock and be able to get back, get the ball out and then do that over and over again.

“There are times when he gets back in his drop on a particular play, and instead of taking the first option that opens up, he just sits back and waits for that second one. It’s like, hey, take that first option. Make your decision faster.

“The really, really good ones, the Aaron Rodgers, the Tom Bradys, they knew whether that second window was going to open up or not based off the coverage. So they knew whether or not to wait for that second window or just take the first one right away. They were always a step ahead, and I think Caleb can definitely develop that.

“Defenses and coverages are going to get more complicated for him in the NFL. That’s part of the development with these guys, just seeing more and more variety and coverages so it’s just not all French to them when they get to the NFL.”

What young quarterbacks tend to discover when they get to the NFL, Scout 2 said, is not only that passing windows are tighter but also they close more quickly than in college football.

“That’s the biggest adjustment for quarterbacks,” he said. “If a window is there, it’s going to be gone before you know it. That’s because of the recovery and transition of NFL defensive backs. That’s the biggest difference between college and the NFL. It’s how fast and athletic these guys are with their length, they’re able to close those windows.”

As for Williams’ window of opportunity? It’s propped wide open.