NFL Week 11 picks: Cowboys beat Chiefs; Chargers, Patriots win

Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season begins Thursday with the New England Patriots visiting the Falcons in Atlanta. The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups.

Farmer’s record last week: 8-5-1 (.615); season 93-56-1 (.624). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-8 (.429); season 72-76-2 (.487).

Teams on bye: Rams, Broncos.

Times Pacific. Lines according to FanDuel (O/U = over/under):

New England Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson runs against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday in Foxborough, Mass.

(Winslow Townson / Associated Press)

Thursday, 5:20 p.m.

TV: Channel 11, NFL Network, Amazon.

Line: Patriots by 7. O/U: 471/2.

Veteran coach with rookie quarterback versus rookie coach with veteran quarterback? In this case, go with coach Bill Belichick over Arthur Smith, especially on a short week. Old guys rule.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Falcons 20

Buffalo Bills free safety Jordan Poyer (21) reacts after making an interception against the New York Jets on Sunday in East Rutherford, N.J.

(Adam Hunger / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bills by 7. O/U: 50.

The Bills are suddenly hearing New England’s footsteps. Josh Allen faces a secondary missing three of its four starters, and the Colts can’t seem to win a game against a playoff-caliber team.

Prediction: Bills 30, Colts 20

Baltimore Ravens punter Sam Koch (4) and kicker Justin Tucker celebrate Tucker kicking a field goal against the Miami Dolphins on Nov. 11 in Miami Gardens, Fla.

(Doug Murray / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Ravens by 5. O/U: 45.

The Ravens are the better team, but have had their share of bad games this season. They are 3-6 against the spread, so even though they probably will beat the Bears, there’s a good chance it won’t be by much.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Bears 21

Miami Dolphins quarterback Jacoby Brissett gestures at the line of scrimmage during a game against the Baltimore Ravens on Nov. 11 in Miami Gardens, Fla.

(Doug Murray / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Dolphins by 31/2. O/U: 441/2.

The Dolphins’ defense is starting to resemble 2020 version, which finished sixth. Jets are starting Joe Flacco, who might be better against blitzes than rookie Zach Wilson, but does he have anything left?

Prediction: Dolphins 17, Jets 13

New Orleans Saints defensive end Marcus Davenport (92) and linebacker Pete Werner (20) pursue Tennessee Titans running back D’Onta Foreman during a game in Nashville, Tenn. on Sunday.

(Gary McCullough / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Titans by 10. O/U: 441/2.

The Titans don’t have Derrick Henry, but that hasn’t seemed to matter much. Tennessee still has weapons and appears to be playoff bound, and is facing a Houston franchise in deep disarray.

Prediction: Titans 28, Texans 13

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton looks to avoid the tackle of Arizona Cardinals linebacker Zaven Collins (25) on a touchdown run during the first half on Sunday in Glendale, Ariz.

(Ralph Freso / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Panthers by 31/2. O/U: 43.

Who knows how long it will last, but there is love in the air again between Carolina and Cam Newton. Christian McCaffrey is back to speed against a disappointing and banged-up Washington defense.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Washington 20

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield passes against the New England Patriots on Sunday in Foxborough, Mass.

(Winslow Townson / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Browns by 111/2. O/U: 431/2.

Lions are basking in afterglow of their tie with Pittsburgh — hey, it’s been that kind of season — and they have played some good teams close before losing. Cleveland tends not to blow out opponents.

Prediction: Browns 24, Lions 20

San Francisco 49ers free safety Jimmie Ward intercepts a pass in the first quarter against the Rams on Monday in Santa Clara.

(Scot Tucker / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: 49ers by 6. O/U: 45.

The 49ers have been up and down, with a humiliating loss to the short-handed Cardinals followed by a decisive win over the Rams. Jacksonville isn’t playing in London, so no home-field advantage here.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Jaguars 17

Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers runs during the first half against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in Green Bay, Wis.

(Matt Ludtke / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Packers by 21/2. O/U: 49.

Controversial as he is, Aaron Rodgers is on mend and figures to play better this week. Green Bay’s defense did a good job in consecutive weeks against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson.

Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 24

New Orleans Saints quarterback Trevor Siemian looks to hand off the ball during the second half against the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday.

(Gary McCullough / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Eagles by 11/2. O/U: 43.

Saints haven’t lost three in a row since 2016, and they have the best run defense in the NFL. That said, the Eagles ran all over them last season. Dropped passes, dumb penalties have killed New Orleans.

Prediction: Saints 23, Eagles 21

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow throws during the first half against the Cleveland Browns on Nov. 7 in Cincinnati.

(Aaron Doster / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Bengals by 1. O/U: 491/2.

The Bengals are terrible after a week off, losing their last five after the break. But this is a different team with a different quarterback, and the Raiders are in disarray. Give the edge to Joe Burrow.

Prediction: Bengals 23, Raiders 21

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes during the second half against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday in Las Vegas.

(Rick Scuteri / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Chiefs by 21/2. O/U: 551/2.

Is the resurgence of the Chiefs real or a mirage? The Cowboys can score like crazy, and they just throttled Atlanta, 43-3. Dak Prescott has a big game against a Kansas City defense he can pick apart.

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Chiefs 28

Seattle Seahawks’ Russell Wilson during the first half against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday in Green Bay, Wis.

(Matt Ludtke / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Cardinals by 21/2. O/U: 48.

After being shut out last Sunday for the first time in Russell Wilson’s 150 games, the Seahawks are likely to bounce back strong at home. Arizona is trying to hold it together until Kyler Murray returns.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 21

Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) looks to celebrate after scoring a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Chargers by 51/2. O/U: 47.

Mike Tomlin has a good record against young quarterbacks, and the Chargers have struggled to stop the run. But with no Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ben Roethlisberger’s status in question ...

Prediction: Chargers 27, Steelers 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady in action during the second half against the Washington Football Team on Sunday in Landover, Md.

(Nick Wass / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Buccaneers by 101/2. O/U: 491/2.

Tom Brady is going to bring the Buccaneers back with a vengeance after a humbling defeat. There’s no way he’s going to drop two in a row — and certainly not to the Giants.

Prediction: Buccaneers 35, Giants 17

Sports

For Subscribers

Ultimate SoCal NFL sports bar guide: Find out where to watch your team

Where do NFL fans gather to watch games in Southern California? From Packers to Bears and 49ers to Rams, use our guide to find your game-day spot.

Sept. 12, 2022