Essential Quality narrowly avoids dreaded one post, is 2-1 favorite in Kentucky Derby

LOUISVILLE, Ky. —  Horse racing trainers generally can rationalize any post position as being OK, except for one, and that’s the one. It’s a place where a horse can get boxed in by the rail or covered up by the 19 horses to his outside and trapped with nowhere to go.

So, as the random draw for the 147th Kentucky Derby was coming to a close Tuesday, there were three positions yet to be matched with a horse and the one post was in the mix. And the undefeated favorite, Essential Quality, did not have his spot yet.

Was trainer Brad Cox nervous?

“Yeah, a lot, a whole lot,” Cox said.

He even formulated a way to make things sound just fine if his horse drew the one.

“Churchill does have a new [starting] gate [that puts the one further away from the rail],” Cox said. “That’s going to give the one a little bit more opportunity at a clear run. That was the positive spin I was going to put on it if I got the one, but fortunately I don’t have to use that excuse.”

As it turned out, Known Agenda, one of four horses for Todd Pletcher, drew the one and Essential Quality got the 14 in the penultimate draw.

“I started weeping, open weeping,” Pletcher said about drawing the one. “Look, there were three numbers left and at that point, it was a one-in-three chance. I was hoping for 14 or 16, but it was one those situations that you have no control over so you go with it.”

Essential Quality was made the 2-1 morning-line favorite by Mike Battaglia, who has been making the Derby line since 1975, the same year the race was capped at 20 starters.

No horse has won from the one since Ferdinand in 1986, and before that you have to go back to 1963 when Chateaugay won the Derby in a nine-horse race.

Battaglia actually does the morning-line before the draw is held ... almost.

“It’s too tough to try on the fly, unless they draw the one,” Battaglia said in a 2019 interview with The Times about updating the line.

Battaglia only has three other horses with odds of less than 10-1. Rock Your World (post 15), trained by John Sadler, is 5-1, Known Agenda is 6-1 and Hot Rod Charlie (9), for Doug O’Neill is 8-1. There are three more horses with odds of less than 20-1: Highly Motivated (10-1), Mandaloun (15-1) and Medina Spirit (15-1), trained by Bob Baffert.

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Let’s check in on a few of the Kentucky Derby horses.

April 25, 2021

The usually staid but murmuring crowd was punctuated by loud hollering brought on by youthful exuberance when Hot Rod Charlie drew the nine. The horse is partly owned by five former Brown football players, all in their late 20s, who go by the name Boat Racing, after a college beer drinking game.

“We decided we were going to give it a pump no matter what post we drew,” O’Neill said. “But we’re delighted with the nine. It’s a real good post. And the way they load this field, it means we won’t be standing in the gate very long.”

Santa Anita-based Rock Your World is this week’s buzz horse after his upset win in the Santa Anita Derby in only his third race and first on dirt.

“I’m pleased,” Sadler said of the draw. “We like an outside post You’re not going to get in the kind of trouble you could if you were on the inside, so we’re happy with it.”

The Kentucky Derby field

The Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday at 3:57 p.m. PDT. Horses in post-position order with jockey and morningline odds:

1. Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 6-1
2. Like the King (Drayden Van Dyke), 50-1
3. Brooklyn Strong (Umberto Rispoli), 50-1
4. Keepmeinmind (David Cohen), 50-1
5. Sainthood (Corey Lanerie), 50-1
6. O Besos (Marcelino Pedroza), 20-1
7. Mandaloun (Florent Geroux), 15-1
8. Medina Spirit (John Velazquez), 15-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat), 8-1
10. Midnight Bourbon (Mike Smith), 20-1
11. Dynamic One (Jose Ortiz), 20-1
12. Helium (Julien Leparoux), 50-1
13. Hidden Stash (Rafael Bejarano), 50-1
14. Essential Quality (Luis Saez), 2-1
15. Rock Your World (Joel Rosario), 5-1
16. King Fury (Brian Hernandez Jr.), 20-1
17. Highly Motivated (Javier Castellano), 10-1
18. Super Stock (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 30-1
19. Soup and Sandwich (Tyler Gaffalione), 30-1
20. Bourbonic (Kendrick Carmouche), 30-1