NCAA championship best bets: Baylor vs. Gonzaga picks against the spread

VSiN’s experts reveal their best bets and most likely upsets for Baylor vs. Gonzaga in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament championship game Monday night.

Record so far: 54-37

Odds are consensus from VSiN’s March Madness Vegas Odds Page.

Baylor players celebrate after defeating Houston in the Final Four on Saturday.

(Michael Conroy / Associated Press)

Greg Peterson: This is the matchup college basketball fans have wanted all season long (and almost got in December if it the game hadn’t been canceled because of COVID-19 protocols).

These are the top two offenses in the country in points scored on a per possession basis, but they do it in different ways, as Gonzaga leads the country in two-point shooting percentage and Baylor three-point shooting percentage.

The biggest mismatch in this game, though, is going to be on the interior. Drew Timme has registered at least 22 points in each of Gonzaga’s last four games, and his 7.1 rebounds per game are more than any Baylor player.

Baylor ranks 289th in the country in defensive rebound rate, allows a second chance on 29.6% of opponents missed shots, and shoots just 65.5% at the free-throw line away from Waco, Texas. Gonzaga will win the game and cover this short number.

Pick: Gonzaga -4.5

Dave Tuley: This is the matchup that most of us have been expecting all season to wrap up the Big Dance (with the exception of the short flirtation with Illinois at the end of the regular season and conference tournaments). It couldn’t have worked out any better for those who took our advice in the Feb. 24 issue of Point Spread Weekly on taking “Gonzaga/Baylor vs. the field” at 120 and then repeating it in the March 17 issue when it was up to 145. With the teams facing off in the title game, we don’t even have to be tempted to hedge. But we still want to bet the national title game and the lean is to Baylor plus the points.

Even though Gonzaga has been the favorite since last summer, Baylor has been a strong 1A and my initial thought when the line first game out Saturday night was that Gonzaga -5 was a little high. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not way off as I wavered between making Gonzaga -3 or -3.5 and feel the oddsmakers went with -5 because they felt all the money would be on the Bulldogs if using anything in that range. Instead, early money has shown on Baylor to drop the line to -4.5 as of Sunday afternoon.

I think the total is off by a lot more. It opened at 160, and early money has also dropped the total to 159.5 — and I believe that money is also on the right side. In fact, in every way I handicapped this game, I had both teams scoring in the 70s, so the total should be closer to 155. Gonzaga plays at a faster tempo than Baylor and these are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in offensive efficiency according to kenpom.com, so that’s probably why the total was set so high. However, both teams are capable of stepping up on defense and I think we’ll see that with so much on the line.

Pick: Under 159.5 (and lean to Baylor +4.5)

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