Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 14

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 10-6 (.625); season 119-72-1 (.623). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the

spread last week would have been 9-6-1 (.600); season 100-88-4 (.532). Times are Pacific.

BAL (10-2) at BUF (9-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 24, Bills 20

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Ravens by 6. O/U: 44.

One of several great matchups this week. The Bills have won four of five and are answering doubters. Baltimore is the hottest team in the league, though, and should hang on for a road win.

CIN (1-11) at CLE (5-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Browns 27, Bengals 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Browns by 71/2. O/U: 411/2.

Bengals an enticing pick, even though Cleveland has more talent. Now that the Browns are essentially done, they might do some coasting but they’re home and Baker Mayfield is enough of a leader.

DEN (4-8) at HOU (8-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Texans 28, Broncos 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Texans by 9. O/U: 421/2.

Drew Lock gave Broncos some hope last week, and that could make this interesting. But like old boss, Bill Belichick, Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel takes away what opponents do best.

MIA (3-9) at NYJ (4-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 33, Dolphins 28

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Jets by 51/2. O/U: 451/2.

The Jets scored 34 three weeks in a row, then laid an egg against the Bengals. Sam Darnold plays a lot better when he’s at home, and gets the edge in what will probably be a high-scoring game.

IND (6-6) at TB (5-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Buccaneers 28, Colts 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Buccaneers by 3. O/U: 47.

The Colts are too banged up. In each of their last four games, they’ve failed to score more than 17 points. The Buccaneers smother the run, and should be able to throw on Indianapolis.

CAR (5-7) at ATL (3-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Falcons 24, Panthers 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 47.

Teams often get a boost after a coaching change. Will the Panthers get one by dumping the beloved Ron Rivera? Doubtful. Carolina has laid an egg a couple of weeks in a row.

WAS (3-9) at GB (9-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Packers 28, Redskins 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Packers by 12. O/U: 411/2.

Coming off back-to-back wins, the Redskins are playing better. But Lambeau Field in December is a really tough place for visitors, and the Aarons — Rodgers and Jones — should have a big day.

DET (3-8-1) at MIN (8-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 31, Lions 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Vikings by 121/2. O/U: 43.

The Lions are down to their third-string quarterback and the Vikings need to bounce back after a loss at Seattle. Minnesota will probably get receiver Adam Thielen back, which helps that offense.

SF (10-2) at NO (10-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

49ers 27, Saints 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Saints by 2. O/U: 441/2.

The Saints are going to struggle to throw on the 49ers, and haven’t been running it too well. But New Orleans can stop the run, and this will come down to Jimmy Garoppolo making a few key plays.

LAC (4-8) at JAC (4-8)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chargers 28, Jaguars 24

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 431/2.

The Chargers keep finding ways to lose, but Philip Rivers can’t keep going on like this. He busts out of his slump, Melvin Gordon runs the ball well, and the sputtering Jaguars lose their fifth straight.

PIT (7-5) at ARI (3-8-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Steelers 28, Cardinals 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Steelers by 21/2. O/U: 431/2.

We’ll see what kind of bounce-back pride the Cardinals have. Kyler Murray will have his hands full with this loaded Pittsburgh defense. Pittsburgh’s getting healthier on offense and that’s enough.

KC (8-4) at NE (10-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Chiefs 31, Patriots 27

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 481/2.

Really tough for visitors to win at Gillette Stadium, especially when the weather turns cold. But the Patriots were light on weapons in Houston, and Kansas City’s defense is looking better.

TEN (7-5) at OAK (6-6)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Titans 28, Raiders 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 717.

Line: Titans by 3. O/U: 471/2.

Oakland has had embarrassing flops two weeks in a row. One is bad, two is troubling. Ryan Tannehill has the Titans quietly rolling, and Derrick Henry can be scary with the way he runs over people.

SEA (10-2) at LAR (7-5)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

Rams 31, Seahawks 28

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Pick ’em. O/U: 48.

The Rams finally put a complete game together. Granted, it was vs. Arizona, but it was meaningful. Aaron Donald gives Russell Wilson problems, and the Rams come up big in a win-or-else situation.

NYG (2-10) at PHI (5-7)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Eagles 31, Giants 24

TV: ESPN.

Line: Eagles by 10. O/U: 46.

This could be a storybook game for Eli Manning, but he’s more likely to be a sitting duck for a team that has lost eight in a row. The Eagles are nothing special, although they’re good enough.