Sam Farmer's NFL Week 13 picks: Take Browns over Steelers

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Browns defensive end Myles Garrett gets ready to hit Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph with a helmet during the second half of a game Nov. 14. (Ron Schwane / Associated Press)

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Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) hits Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph (2) with a helmet during the second half of a game Nov. 14. (David Richard / Associated Press)

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Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, bottom, and, Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey (53) and offensive guard David DeCastro (66) fall to the turf during a brawl on Nov. 14. (Ron Schwane / Associated Press)

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Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) is punched by Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey (53) and tackled by offensive guard David DeCastro (66) during a brawl in a game Nov. 14. (Ron Schwane / Associated Press)

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Members of the Browns and Steelers mix it up during the second half of a game Nov. 14. (David Richard / Associated Press)

Nov. 27, 2019 5:58 PM PT

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-3 (.786); season 109-66-1 (.623). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 10-4 (.714); season 91-82-3 (.526). Times Pacific.

CHICAGO BEARS (5-6) at DETROIT LIONS (3-7-1)

Thursday, 9:30 a.m.
TV: Channel 11.
Line: Bears by 4. O/U: 37.

Both teams a disappointment, but Chicago still has a defense. Detroit’s offensive line has had a hard time protecting Jeff Driskel, who was sacked six times by mediocre Washington defense.

Bears 24, Lions 20

BUFFALO BILLS (8-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-5)

Thursday, 1:30 p.m.
TV: Channel 2.
Line: Cowboys by 6 1/2. O/U: 47.

With coach on the ropes, the Cowboys should bounce back after a lackluster outing at New England. Buffalo has a stout defense, and Josh Allen can make plays, but a long trip on a short week.

Cowboys 27, Bills 21

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-2) at ATLANTA FALCONS (3-8)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.
TV: Channel 4.
Line: Saints by 7. O/U: 48 1/2.

Drew Brees is heating up, and so is Michael Thomas. That’s got to concern the Falcons, who are nothing special against the pass. If Saints can keep Brees upright, they should even season series.

Saints 31, Falcons 21

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (2-9) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 705.
Line: Panthers by 10. O/U: 39.

In his first career victory last week, Redskins rookie Dwayne Haskins missed his final snap because he was taking a selfie with a fan. His focus needs to be a lot sharper against Carolina’s defense.

Panthers 33, Redskins 17

NEW YORK JETS (4-7) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 706.
Line: Jets by 3. O/U: 41.

The Jets have won three in a row, scoring 34 points in each of those games. Sam Darnold is inspiring a lot of hope and confidence. Somebody will derail that, but it won’t be the Bengals.

Jets 30, Bengals 24

TENNESSEE TITANS (6-5) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 707.
Line: Colts by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Titans have won four of five, including an upset of Kansas City. Tennessee is often ignored, then surfaces for a stretch run. The Colts have the pieces but tend to lose close games. Killer instinct?

Titans 27, Colts 23

CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-6) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 708.
Line: Browns by 2 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

Do these teams play each other every week? Steelers have an unknown quarterback and injuries at running back and receivers. Browns aren’t good, but they’re good enough to win this one.

Browns 24, Steelers 20

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (10-1) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 709.
Line: Ravens by 6. O/U: 47.

A smothering defense against a revolutionary offense? This possible Super Bowl preview should be fascinating. Russell Wilson beat the 49ers in overtime. Is Lamar Jackson next to do so?

Ravens 24, 49ers 20

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-7) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 710.
Line: Buccaneers by 1. O/U: 48.

The Jaguars are moonwalking through their division, moving backward by the week with three straight division losses by 20-plus. Tampa’s Ronald Jones could have a big day on the ground.

Buccaneers 28, Jaguars 24

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-6) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 711.
Line: Eagles by 10. O/U: 44 1/2.

Carson Wentz has fallen off, but Eagles are riddled with injuries all around him. He should rebound from a poor outing, and Philadelphia’s defense is starting to get healthy. Bounce back game.

Eagles 24, Dolphins 20

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 712.
Line: Packers by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

As lopsided losses to the Chargers and San Francisco showed, the Packers just aren’t that good. Giants have a host of problems and weaknesses too. Go with Aaron Rodgers over Daniel Jones.

Packers 23, Giants 21

LOS ANGELES RAMS (6-5) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-7-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m.
TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 713.
Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 47.

Rams are reeling and confidence is at an all-time low under Sean McVay. Lamar Jackson gave them all sorts of problems, but Kyler Murray isn’t Lamar Jackson — even though he’s plenty elusive.

Rams 30, Cardinals 20

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-7) at DENVER BRONCOS (3-8)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.
Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 38.

Philip Rivers has thrown a slew of interceptions in recent weeks, and there’s no guarantee he’ll snap that trend. But Chargers are getting healthier and are too good to be swept by these Broncos.

Chargers 28, Broncos 24

OAKLAND RAIDERS (6-5) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-4)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 715
Line: Chiefs by 10. O/U: 51.

The Raiders were humiliated by the Jets, and they often have problems in Kansas City. They should be able to run enough to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. Still, go with the Chiefs.

Chiefs 27, Raiders 23

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-1) at HOUSTON TEXANS (7-4)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.
TV: Channel 4.
Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 45.

You can throw it on the Texans, but Tom Brady isn’t playing like an elite passer anymore, and who’s he throwing it to? Plus, the Texans can shut down the run. Look for Houston in an upset.

Texans 28, Patriots 27

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (8-3) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9-2)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.
TV: ESPN.
Line: Seahawks by 3. O/U: 49.

Huge test for Kirk Cousins, who still needs to prove he can beat an elite team. The Seahawks are really tough when the weather turns cold, and their place remains awfully tough on visitors.

Seahawks 27, Vikings 23