Dodgers Dugout: Delving into the numbers during the 5-15 skid

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell, and it seems like the last time the Dodgers won a series, the word “World” appeared in front of it.

So, who needed extra Tums the night of the 14-11 victory? Yeah, me neither. Knew they had it all the way.

I’m looking for new ways to discuss what is going on with this team. It’s obvious the problems, and it’s obvious the only solution is to hope they play their way out of it. There aren’t a ton of magical arms waiting in the minors to resurrect the bullpen. There are no magic bats lurking somewhere to get hits in key situations. There are no mystical gloves laying about to help the shaky defense.

The team on the field is the team that will have to turn this around. Sure, they will get some reinforcements when people start coming off the IL, but what they really need is some sort of mental readjustment, because the team is not playing the smart, heads-up baseball we are used to seeing.

So, let’s look at some numbers. I know some of you hate stat-filled newsletters, but, we can’t intelligently discuss what’s wrong if we don’t look at the numbers occasionally. Are the Dodgers really bad with runners in scoring position? Is Max Muncy really doing poorly during this 5-15 stretch? Is Kenley Jansen a problem still, or is he actually the best reliever they have used recently? Or are thoughts clouded by confirmation bias? Let’s take a look.

The Dodgers began their game against the San Diego Padres on Sunday, April 18 riding an eight-game winning streak. They were 13-2. And then they lost that Sunday, the finale of a three-game set with the Padres. Then they split two with Seattle, lost three of four to the Padres, lost two of three to Cincinnati, lost three of four to Milwaukee, lost all three to the Cubs and lost two of three to the Angels. That makes them 5-15 in their last 20 games, which, over a full season would be 40-120. You know which team finished 40-120? The 1962 New York Mets, considered by many to be the worst team in baseball history.

They currently stand at 18-17. Last season they finished 43-17. Same number of losses, 25 fewer games.

Some numbers during this 5-15 slide:

Austin Barnes: .185/.371/.185

Matt Beaty: .367/.486/.500

Mookie Betts: .243/.264/.405

Gavin Lux: .200/.250/.222

Max Muncy: .127/.385/.255

Sheldon Neuse: .219/.219/.406

AJ Pollock: .269/.321/.558

Corey Seager: .247/.333/.390

Will Smith: .246/.303/.393

Chris Taylor: .300/.440/.500

Justin Turner: .231/.378/.354

Well, you can certainly see why you’d want to keep Matt Beaty on the bench as much as possible. And why you’d want to keep trotting Max Muncy out there as the cleanup hitter. It has looked to me the last few games that opponents are pitching around Justin Turner to get to Muncy, which would help explain Turner’s lower average but higher on-base percentage. Really, Beaty, AJ Pollock and Chris Taylor are the only ones hitting at or above what you would expect from them. And when the top two hitters in your lineup are slumping, you’ve got problems.

Now, let’s look at hitting with runners in scoring position this season, from best to worst, including players on the IL or at the alternate site.

Zach McKinstry: .429/.400/.500, 14 at-bats, 9 RBIs

Matt Beaty: .412/.474/.647, 17 AB, 15 RBIs

Max Muncy: .314/.538/.437, 35 AB, 11 RBIs

AJ Pollock: .308/419/.615, 26 AB, 13 RBIs

Chris Taylor: .300/.417/.533, 30 AB, 10 RBIs

Justin Turner: .293/.354/.439, 41 AB, 16 RBIs

Corey Seager, .290/.436/.548, 31 AB, 15 RBIs

Austin Barnes, .278/.458/.333, 18 AB, 6 RBIs

Gavin Lux, .238/.330/.283, 21 AB, 7 RBIs

Mookie Betts, .214/.371/.214, 28 AB, 7 RBIs

Will Smith, .176/.286/.324, 34 AB, 11 RBIs

Sheldon Neuse, .100/.100/.100, 10 AB, 1 RBI

Luke Raley, .083/.214/.083, 12 AB, 1 RBI

Edwin Rios, .000/.278/.000, 13 AB, 0 RBIs

DJ Peters, .000/.250/.000, 3 AB, 0 RBIs

Cody Bellinger, .000/.143/.000, 6 AB, 1 RBI

Keibert Ruiz, .000/.000/.000, 2 AB, 0 RyBIs

You may be surprised to see so many Dodgers doing so well with runners in scoring position. Keep in mind, for every game where they go 1 for 10 as a team, they have a game where they go 11 for 23. It’s feast or famine, The Dodgers have the sixth-highest batting average in the NL with runners in scoring position:

Cincinnati, .296
Miami, .266
Colorado, .264
San Francisco, .260
Atlanta, .249
Dodgers, .244
St. Louis, .241
Philadelphia, .240
San Diego, .233
Chicago, .228
Milwaukee, .218
New York, .216
Pittsburgh, .216
Washington, .215
Arizona, .201

And the Dodgers are the only team in the NL, through Sunday, with more than 300 at-bats with runners in scoring position. They have left 287 runners on base, 30 more than the next team on the list. Which brings us to the next point: The teams with the best offense usually leave the most runners on base, because they get more runners on base. If the Dodgers win a game 6-1, get eight hits and five walks and leave five on base, and their opponent gets one run on three hits and leaves two on base, which team has the best offense? Add that up over the course of a season, and you see what happens. People often point to LOB as a sign of a bad offense, when it is often a sign of a good offense.

Since 1950, the team with the record for most left on base in a season is the 1976 Cincinnati Reds, which left 1,328 runners on base, finished 102-60 and is considered one of the best offenses in baseball history. Of the top 20 teams in runners left on base since 1950, 18 finished with winning records, two won more than 100 games and nine won more than 90 games.

The L.A. Dodger record for LOB is held by the 2009 Dodgers, which left 1,224 runners on base and finished 95-67. The 2021 Dodgers are on pace to leave 1,328 on base, tying the 1976 Reds. We can only hope they end up with 102 wins.

Now let’s look at pitching during the 5-15 stretch.

Starters
Trevor Bauer, 2.37 ERA
Walker Buehler, 4.19 ERA
Clayton Kershaw, 3.15 ERA
Dustin May, 3.55 ERA
Julio Urías, 3.38 ERA

For relievers, we add Inherited Runners who Scored percentage. If you come in to a game with the bases loaded, and allow two of those runners to score, you have an IRS% of 67%. This allows us to see which relievers have deceptively low ERAs. Come in with the bases loaded and give up a triple, then your ERA is 0.00, but your IRS% is 100%. The league average for IRS% is 34%.

Relievers
Scott Alexander, 1.29 ERA, 33% IRS

Garrett Cleavinger, 6.23 ERA, 67% IRS

Victor Gonzalez, 1.17 ERA, 67% IRS

Brusdar Graterol, 20.25 ERA, 0% IRS

Kenley Jansen, 1.23 ERA, 0% IRS

Joe Kelly, 54.00 ERA, 0% IRS

Jimmy Nelson, 2.35 ERA, 0% IRS

David Price, 4.50 ERA, 0% IRS

Dennis Santana, 10.13 ERA, 50% IRS

Blake Treinen, 2.16 ERA, 33% IRS

Edwin Uceta, 4.15 ERA, 0% IRS

Alex Vesia, 9.00 ERA, 0% IRS

Mitch White, 1.35 ERA, 80% IRS

In short, with Corey Knebel, Price, Alexander and Graterol out, the Dodgers have had to rely on guys such as Cleavinger, Santana and White a lot more than they expected, and the results haven’t been pretty.

Will the Dodgers snap out of this skid? Eventually, yes. They certainly aren’t the 1962 Mets. And despite this horrendous slide, they are still only 2 1/2 games out of first. The Giants’ magic number over the Dodgers is all the way down to 126. There’s reason to be concerned of course, but if they can get some bullpen pieces back and break out of this slump on offense, things will get back to normal. I’d still bet on them to win the division.

Kershaw and Bauer speak up

The problem with looking at numbers, of course, is that they don’t play the games via computer, they play them on the field. And, with the team flailing about like a fish on a pier, two of their best pitchers spoke up.

Clayton Kershaw: “It doesn’t do anyone any good to think, ‘Oh, it’s a long season, it’s 162 games, and we’ll figure it out — we’re too good not to.’ In my opinion, you figure it out right now. Don’t wait. Don’t get complacent with it. Last season taught us that a little bit. For me, personally, every game matters, whether it’s May or September. All the wins count the same.”

Trevor Bauer: I don’t necessarily want to speak for the team. I’m pissed, personally. I frickin’ hate losing. I want to win, that’s why I came here, and we’re just not playing up to our capability right now. You can say it’s early and no need to panic, but we’re not going to sleepwalk our way to winning another division title and going to the World Series again. We have to go out and beat someone.”

And Dave Roberts had this to say, about the sense of urgency required for a 60-game season compared to a 162- game season: “I think you can try to play every game, in theory, like it’s Game 7, but in reality, it’s not. When you look out at a 162-game season, there are going to be times when you’re not getting hits and teams look lethargic. That’s every ballclub that’s not swinging the bats.

“I know we still have a lot of good players, and we’re gonna win baseball games. But to have our hair on fire for 162, I think that is hard. Our guys understand it is a marathon. I don’t like how we got to .500 the last couple of weeks, but we are where we’re at, and we have to get better.”

Ask Peter O’Malley

Former Dodgers owner Peter O’Malley has agreed to answer selected questions from Dodgers Dugout readers. So, send them to me at [email protected]. I will select the best and the ones most frequently asked and send them to him, and get his answers. Then those will be printed in a future newsletter. And please put “Ask Peter O’Malley” in the subject line of your email.

Book recommendation

This book doesn’t have anything to do with the Dodgers (other than brief appearances by a couple of former Dodgers), but it was so good I wanted to recommend it to any of you who are baseball fans.

“CLUBBIE: A Minor League Baseball Memoir” by Greg Larson is an emotional backstage look at what it’s like to be the clubhouse manager for a minor-league team. It’s written by Greg Larson, who spent two years with the Aberdeen IronBirds. It’s a great look at life in the minor leagues.

Up next

Tonight, Seattle (*Yusei Kikuchi, 1-2, 4.30 ERA) at Dodgers (Walker Buehler, 1-0, 3.13 ERA), 7 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570

Wednesday, Seattle (Justin Dunn, 1-0, 3.51 ERA) at Dodgers (*Julio Urías, 4-1, 3.59 ERA), 7 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570

*-left-handed

And finally

Vin Scully on getting Babe Ruth‘s autograph. Watch and listen here.