Are Nyquist and Exaggerator this year’s Affirmed and Alydar?
Reporting from Baltimore — Few things make sports more interesting than a good rivalry. Even if that rivalry might be nothing more than wishful thinking.
Horse racing was widely popular in 1978 when Affirmed and Alydar hooked up in the three Triple Crown races. Affirmed won them all by a total of less than two lengths.
Now, with a Triple Crown for the undefeated Nyquist listed as somewhere between possible and probable, the talk of a potential rivalry with Exaggerator is giving fans a classic story line.
The pair has met four times with Nyquist winning each time. In their two races this year — the San Vicente Stakes and the Kentucky Derby — Exaggerator finished second both times.
Shortly after betting opened for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown, both horses were at 7-5 odds. As advance betting settled into the night, Nyquist was near even money and Exaggerator was around 2 to 1. Nyquist will likely go off at lower odds when more money starts being bet.
But as much as people want this matchup to go down in horse lore, their trainers say it’s not there yet.
“The Affirmed-Alydar rivalry took on legendary status after it was complete,” said Keith Desormeaux, Exaggerator’s trainer. “I’ll bet they weren’t talking about a rivalry coming up to the Preakness.”
Affirmed and Alydar met 10 times, with Affirmed winning seven and Alydar three. Nine times they finished one-two. In their last race, at the Travers in New York, Affirmed crossed the finish line first but was disqualified to second for interfering with his rival.
“When Affirmed became a Triple Crown champion, and Alydar was on his ass every jump of the way, then it became a legendary rivalry,” Desormeaux said. “We don’t meet those qualifications yet.
“I’m going to try and turn the tables on him. But I don’t think it’s considered a real rivalry yet until I threaten him and until the Triple Crown is complete.”
Affirmed was a front-runner, like Nyquist. Alydar came from far back, like Exaggerator.
Doug O’Neill, Nyquist’s trainer, dodged the comparison amid his continual message of positivity.
“Exaggerator scares us because … he’s the kind of horse that can be laying back and just surge at just the right time,” O’Neill said. “We really respect him a lot but we’re super happy with how Nyquist is coming into this. We feel we’re going to be in a pretty good spot.”
If both horses come out of the Preakness in good shape the possibility for at least one more race is on the table — at least for Exaggerator.
“Absolutely, this is too much fun,” Desormeaux said of going to the Belmont in three weeks. “The horse is very sound and limber and happy and resilient so, absolutely, we’re on our way.”
Saturday’s race may very well be a testament to Southern California’s recent dominance in the Triple Crown. Three of the last four Preakness winners have been local exports. I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015) all were Kentucky Derby winners too.
Uncle Lino and Laoban are also based out of Southern California. Laoban, for trainer Eric Guillot, is a maiden.
There is a fair amount of early speed in the race and the horse expected to take the lead is Gary Sherlock-trained Uncle Lino, breaking from the two.
Nyquist, who will go from the three position, has strong gate speed and will likely be sitting at least second or third or wherever jockey Mario Gutierrez decides to place him early in the 1 3/16-mile race.
Awesome Speed (4), Laoban (8), Abiding Star (9) also have good early speed but not everyone can be on the lead.
Cherry Wine (1) and Exaggerator (5) have the best finishing kicks in the 11-horse field.
Only Nyquist, Exaggerator and Lani raced two weeks ago in the Kentucky Derby. The rest of the horses are coming into the race fresh.
“The thing you never know about is the two weeks,” O’Neill said. “Nyquist had five weeks to prepare from the Florida Derby to the Kentucky Derby. Now it’s a quick turnaround, but he’s showing all the signs that he’s as good as ever.”
Saturday’s race is expected to be contested over a very wet track, but that doesn’t bother Desormeaux or O’Neill.
“I don’t think Exaggerator needs an off track,” Desormeaux said of his colt, who won the Santa Anita Derby over the slop.
“I’d prefer it be a day like this,” Desormeaux said pointing to the picture-perfect Maryland day.
Nyquist won the Florida Derby over a wet track and the Kentucky Derby over a wet fast surface, but O’Neill would prefer sunshine.
“With a horse like Nyquist, we’re not overly concerned about the weather,” O’Neill said. “I would love to see it nice just to have a lot of people out.”
Of course he would. Since Nyquist debuted on June 5 of last year, everything has been sunny.
Follow John Cherwa on Twitter: @jcherwa
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