As he sees it, it’ll be Michigan State over Kansas for the NCAA title
East Lansing police, start preparing now.
This tournament has a going-green feel to it. Michigan State has one of the two best teams in the nation — Kansas is the other — and the top coach in Tom Izzo. So says me, a recovering baseball beat reporter, forced into action because college basketball reporter Zach Helfand couldn’t prod rapper Drake into sharing his expertise.
This is one man’s opinion, but be warned: The last time The Times published a prediction of mine it was that the Dodgers would sweep the New York Mets in last year’s National League division series.
SOUTH REGIONAL
Kansas is the class of the region and should blow by Austin Peay — apologies to Dodgers catcher and occasional Times contributor A.J. Ellis, an alumnus — and Connecticut. The Jayhawks’ first real challenge will come in the regional semifinal against California, which has a top defense and two potential NBA lottery picks in Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb.
On the other side of the bracket, look for Wichita State to shake things up if it can get by Vanderbilt in the play-in game. The aptly named Shockers are analytics darlings — they are 12th in the KenPom ranking — and first-round opponent Arizona is primed for an upset.
Wichita State then has to get by Villanova, if only to make the country aware of its mascot, WuShock, who looks like Hulked-out Gary Busey. The Shockers will have some momentum heading into the regional final but, as West Virginia learned in the Big 12 Conference championship game, Kansas has too much.
WEST REGIONAL
Yale had a 13-1 record in Ivy League games and at least one No. 12 seed has defeated a No. 5 seed in 13 of the last 15 tournaments. Won’t happen here. With 6-foot-8 seniors Rico Gathers and Taurean Prince on its front line, Baylor is one of the nation’s top offensive rebounding teams. Baylor’s win would set up a dandy of a second-round matchup with Duke and possible future Laker Brandon Ingram.
If Oklahoma senior guard Buddy Hield isn’t the best player in the tournament, he’s certainly the best player in this region, and he should lead his team to a regional final showdown with battle-tested Oregon. There’s a lot to like about the top-seeded Ducks, but Hield will be the difference and the Sooners will advance to the Final Four.
I had Texas in a regional final until someone accused me of trying to win the favor of Times Sports editor Angel Rodriguez, a Longhorn alum. If that person was trying to bait me into upsetting the boss, they succeeded. Down goes Texas in a first-round knockout by Northern Iowa! In other news, I hear I may be transferred out of the Sports department.…
EAST REGIONAL
There will be no Cinderella story for USC Coach Andy Enfield or his former school, Florida Gulf Coast. Both teams are stuck in the Raleigh, N.C., subregional with North Carolina. The top-seeded Tar Heels will meet a formidable opponent in a regional semifinal in Jekyll-and-Hyde Kentucky, led by star freshman Jamal Murray.
But North Carolina simply has too much size, with five key players who are 6 feet 8 or taller, including projected NBA first-round pick Brice Johnson. The Tar Heels are peaking at the right time, and taking them down would be a monumental achievement.
Xavier has its best team under Coach Chris Mack. West Virginia has a suffocating defense made possible by Coach Bob Huggins’ hockey-style substitution patterns. West Virginia’s style of play can create problems for any team, including North Carolina. The X-factor is the Mountaineers’ goggled big man, Devin Williams. If he can resemble the player he was in the Big 12 tournament final — he scored 31 points in a loss to Kansas — the Mountaineers could be a surprise entrant in the Final Four.
MIDWEST REGIONAL
Michigan State should roll to the Final Four behind Denzel Valentine, a national player-of-the-year candidate. Valentine isn’t the only NBA prospect on this deep team, which also includes highly regarded freshman Deyonta Davis. This is Izzo’s best three-point shooting team and Bryn Forbes is one of the reasons why.
There will be some obstacles on the way to Houston, however. Utah, the No. 3 seed, has one of the nation’s top big men in center Jakob Poeltl, the Pac-12 Conference player of the year. But remember, the Utes were blown out by Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament final. If the Spartans don’t face the Utes in a regional semifinal, they will likely take on Seton Hall, which upset Villanova in the Big East Conference tournament.
Syracuse could be the region’s X factor. The Orange built a solid-looking resume, but lost five of their last six games. Virginia was the most controversial of the No. 1 regional seeds, but the Cavaliers showed their quality in a close Atlantic Coast Conference title game loss to North Carolina.
FINAL FOUR
The two best teams will reach the final. Izzo will make the most of the chance to win his second national title and the Michigan State will defeat Kansas, 79-72. And this time, the local police will be ready for the celebration that follows. A statue of the already revered Izzo will be erected in East Lansing.
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