Angels mailbag: One last week

Reporting from Chicago —  Hello, Angels fans. This is actually it now. There is one week left in the 2017 regular season, one week to determine whether the Angels will qualify for the American League wild-card game.

It is extremely improbable that they will. At 77-78, the Angels have seven games left, and the Minnesota Twins have six. Eleven of those outcomes need to finish in the Angels’ favor or they will be eliminated from the Oct. 3 game at Yankee Stadium.

There is that to think about, as well as the future. Many of you seem more focused on the future. Let’s get to your questions in this year’s penultimate mailbag.

(via email)

Mike Trout is having a marvelous season, but his average has plummeted in recent weeks. Is he injured? Fatigued? What do you think accounts for his prolonged slump?

Thank you!

Marc Ballon

It’s mostly randomness. Trout is simply not having his hits fall in at the rate they once did. It’s not particularly complicated. When his average stood at .348 on Aug. 11, 37% of the balls he had put into play had fallen in for hits.

Since then, only 23% of the balls he’s put into play have evaded fielders. So, in that stretch, he’s hitting in the .220s. That is not going to continue. He runs too fast and hits the ball too hard for that to continue. He also is probably not going to carry a .370 batting average on balls in play going forward. His career mark is .356. He can do that.

More importantly, Trout is walking as much as he ever has. In the “prolonged slump” the questioner referred to, Trout has walked far more than he has struck out. If you do that in the major leagues, you’re virtually guaranteed to be good, especially with his speed and power.

Nothing is wrong. He’s mis-hit a few fastballs he should have ripped. I would not expect that to continue. Proceed as normal.

Forced to pick one, it has to be a failure. This is a team with the best ballplayer in the world, a significant payroll, and a big market to call home. They’re under .500 and on the verge of ensuring they’ll go at least nine years between playoff victories. Obviously, that is not good.

I’m not sure if they’re any closer to contending. A lot of the improvements between 2016 and 2017 were shorter term in nature. If the Angels are to contend next season and beyond, they will have to do it again this off-season, and probably again next year. Garrett Richards will be a free agent in a year, and he’s the only pitcher with top-of-the-rotation potential the Angels have in their organization.

The Angels are not a bad team, but they are also not a good team, and they lost to teams that are better than them. That is pretty much what happened. No, the new guys did not disrupt the chemistry. I do not think Justin Upton could disrupt anybody’s chemistry. Sure, injuries caught up to the Angels, in that they would be better if Andrew Heaney and Matt Shoemaker and JC Ramirez and Alex Meyer and Yunel Escobar were healthy. Most of those guys were hurt in August, though.

I can’t come up with a single possible way Luis Valbuena’s bat flips or the flap between Juan Graterol and the Oakland Athletics could have hampered the Angels for three weeks.

Yes. I think that might be the thing I’ve learned in this job that would have most surprised my old self. Ballplayers love fantasy sports. They love talking trade and talking trash. It is funny.

That would be difficult to swing. If Justin Upton does not opt out, the Angels will have $110.7 million committed to six returning players: Upton, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons, Luis Valbuena and Kole Calhoun.

They will also owe something like $25 million in arbitration to at least eight more guys: Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Martin Maldonado, Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian, C.J. Cron, Tyler Skaggs and JC Ramirez. Add in $5 million to cover the minimum-salaried players, and you have at least $140 million committed. Based on their opening-day payroll from the last two seasons, that leaves about $25 million to spend.

Acquiring Ian Kinsler and Mike Moustakas would cost more than that and would leave no room for additional acquisitions or the retaining of free agents such as Yusmeiro Petit. If Upton remains an Angel, there’s room within payroll to add someone significant, but probably just one person, and then more moves at the margins.

That is a good question, to which I do not know the answer. If it’s someone who is in the organization now, it will be Kaleb Cowart, who demonstrated he has improved in fielding the position. He is also not as overmatched at the plate as he once was.

More likely is that the team will find someone via trade or free agency.

I’m not sure. It’s been so long since I rooted for a sports team. My instinct is that the best idea is to thrust yourself into other pursuits you find fun and fruitful.

Brand New’s “Science Fiction” is great. It is forceful and graceful and melodic. Andy McCullough and I discussed it on our podcast last week. My favorite 2017 records, right now, are Cloud Nothings’ “Life Without Sound”, and the War on Drugs’ “A Deeper Understanding.”

Mike Moustakas is the best free-agent third baseman.

I still write about baseball. Also, I like to run, read, see my friends and visit places.

That concludes this mailbag. Check back next Monday for the season-ending edition.

[email protected]

Follow Pedro Moura on Twitter @pedromoura