What can go wrong getting a horse to the Kentucky Derby? How about everything
The math makes no sense.
You start with about 22,300 foals in 2014. Figure about half of them are colts, so you’re down to 11,000.
Of those, the field gets cut some more at the start of their third year, when you have to pay $600 to nominate your colt — or sometimes filly — to be eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby. This year there were 418 nominations: 378 colts, 30 geldings, five ridglings and five fillies.
That puts it at 1.9% of the 2014 foals being eligible for what is almost every horse owner’s dream.
Then, cut it to a minimum of 18 horses — automatic berths are given to the winner of the Hyacinth Stakes in Japan and the UAE Derby in Dubai — and you have the pool down to 0.08%.
You would have to be a fool to play such odds. Right?
Trainer Doug O’Neill, who has won the Derby twice in the last five years, nominated 21 horses. He’s down to one.
Trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won one Derby, nominated 33 horses. He qualified five, but scratched two of them this week.
Trainer John Shirreffs, who has won one Derby, nominated two, and has one in the race and one on the bubble.
Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won four Kentucky Derbies and the Triple Crown, nominated 21 horses and has no qualifiers.
Go figure.
“It is such a huge challenge,” O’Neill said. “The numbers really go against you. What helps us is having guys like [owners] Paul [Reddam] and Kaleem Shah, who are willing to go to auctions and spend money for top prospects. But there are no guarantees.”
O’Neill started with 50 horses, 40 of them bought at sales. Most of the others were bred by Reddam, O’Neill’s most engaged owner.
“There were six or seven who I thought really had a chance,” O’Neill said.
Reddam bought Dog Gone Lenny for $490,000. The colt has one second in three starts. O’Neill said he just didn’t develop fast enough.
W.C. Racing and Zayat Stables bought Dangerfield for $450,000. In seven starts, he has one win, one second and two thirds. He came out of a race body sore and O’Neill has him pointed to the second half of the year.
One sure thing is that money does not guarantee a winner.
“It probably gave most of us in the business the realization that it doesn’t matter if you paid $1 million for a horse,” O’Neill said. “It’s what they have in their heart and their competitive juices that count. If you can keep them injury-free while winning the preps, crazy things can happen.”
It’s that craziness that has O’Neill and Reddam here this week. They decided to send winless Irap to Keeneland.
“He has shown he was a top-notch horse,” O’Neill said. “But he couldn’t break through. We were so disappointed after the Sunland Derby, [where he finished fourth,] but he was full of energy after the race.”
He won his next race, the Bluegrass Stakes, at odds of 31-1. Now he’s in the Derby.
Shirreffs’ success rate this year will get him into any hall of fame. He has
“I had just five colts,” Shirreffs said. “This was a very good year. Obviously, you just have to get really lucky and have a nice 2-year-old that can develop early.”
Pletcher will be running Always Dreaming, Tapwrit and Patch.
“There are no second chances,” Pletcher said. “We have a great client base that provides us with some promising athletes. But a number of things have to go right in order to get there.
“I thought we had a really good winter and spring, and we were able to pick out the right spots for some of them. We try and strategize the right moves. Who goes to Tampa? Who goes to the
The road for trainers or owners can be excruciating. Not so for a jockey with credentials.
“I’m always looking for the next champion, the next star,” Espinoza said. “That’s my job every year, to look for the next champion.”
Espinoza says he starts each year with at least half-a-dozen Derby prospects.
“There is always the hope that when the time comes that I choose the right horses,” Espinoza said. “This year with Royal Mo and Gormley, it’s like which one do you choose? … It’s just one of those things, at some point you have to make a decision. Hopefully, it’s the right decision.”
Baffert is usually a rock star during Derby Week. But on this Tuesday morning, the crowd was gone, there were no TV crews, just two Southern California-based reporters having casual chit-chat with the Hall of Fame trainer as he checked his phone.
“Hey, I’m just glad to be running in the Oaks,” he laughed, referring to Abel Tasman in Friday’s Kentucky Oaks for fillies.
With no horses in the Derby, Baffert plans to go home Saturday morning.
But he’ll be back, likely next year.
No matter what the odds.
How tough is it to make the Derby?
When O’Neill, the ultimate optimist, suggested to his owners that it might be smart to spend $600 to nominate their horse in January for the Kentucky Derby, he was sincere.
“All of these gave us goosebumps at one time or another,” O’Neill said.
Here’s what happened to his 21 Kentucky Derby nominees, in his words.
Ann Arbor Eddie
Bred by Reddam Racing.
Six starts, three wins, one third. Won $258,700.
He got injured when he wrenched an ankle. He needed time off at the farm. He kind of displayed he wasn’t a Kentucky Derby horse.
B Squared
Bred by Reddam Racing.
Three starts, two wins, one second. Won the Silky Sullivan Stakes at Golden Gate last weekend. Won $130,400.
He took a while to get going. Too lightly raced. Came on the scene too late.
Blabimir
Bought for $145,000.
Five starts, one win. Won $32,730.
Just a disappointment. He’s a morning glory, trains great in the morning, but doesn’t show in the afternoon.
Bobby G
Bought for $300,000.
Five starts, one win. Won $45,360.
He ended up getting hurt. Just bad luck. Needed time off.
Dangerfield
Bought for $450,000.
Seven starts. One win, one second, two thirds. Won $186,480.
I thought he had a chance. He just came out of a race body sore. ... He’ll have a great second half of the year and be a nice 4-year-old.
Dog Gone Lenny
Bought for $490,000.
Three starts, one second. Won $12,345.
He’s just a late developer. Thought he would develop faster, but he just didn’t progress.
Fallstar
Bought in a private sale.
Two starts. One second. Won $13,920.
Nice, nice colt. He was just plagued with a little of this and that. He’s back on the farm.
Green With Eddie
Bred by Reddam Racing.
Five starts, two wins, one second. Won $123,056.
He developed some breathing issues. He’s being freshened up. He’ll come back against Cal-bred stakes horses.
Iliad
Bought for $285,000.
Five starts, two wins, one second. Won $247,345.
Just didn’t get enough qualifying points. In his most recent work, he wrenched an ankle. [Iliad was retired this week.]
Into Kings
Bought for $57,000.
Two starts. Won $570.
Showed a lot of talent in the mornings, but never showed it in the afternoon. Not what we had hoped.
Irap
Bought for $300,000.
Eight starts, one win, three seconds, one third. Won the Bluegrass Stakes, and will start in the Kentucky Derby. Won $772,600.
Paul and I, mostly Paul, decided to try the Bluegrass. He took to the blinkers, had the dreamiest of trips. ... An effort like that can get the ball rolling.
Menace the Dennis
Bought in a private sale.
Four starts. Won $2,535.
Just immature mentally and physically. He’s on the farm ready to get back in. He had a special talent in the morning, but not the afternoon.
Milton Freewater
Bought for $250,000.
Nine starts, two winds, two seconds, three thirds. Won $143,265.
Ran in the Santa Anita Derby. A talented, talented horse. But he’s a couple of cuts below a Kentucky Derby horse at this point.
Rockin Rudy
Bought for $100,000.
Four starts, one win, two seconds. Won $53,757.
Really gifted with natural speed, but he might be a one-turn horse. A sprinter.
Sakab
Bought for $80,000.
Hasn’t raced.
He’s just been a slow developer. We’re a month away from his debut.
Secret House
Bought for $125,000.
Seven starts, one win, one second. Won $56,615.
He got body sore. He’s unlucky, a Murphy’s Law horse. He’s back on the farm.
Shane’s Girlfriend
A filly bought for $95,000.
Four starts, two wins, one third. Won $299,200.
She’s a filly that was so impressive we were thinking Winning Colors. But she ran into Unique Bella. She ended up just a little light on weight and energy.
So Conflated
Bought for $70,000.
Five starts, two wins, one third. Won $101,985.
He’s one I thought would be there. He never showed much interest when we ran him in New York. His energy level was very low. He’s back on the farm.
Stone Hands
Bought for $180,000.
Five starts, one second, one third. Won $18,230.
He’s a horse we thought would come around. He’s a late developer. He’s back in training in a month. We just ran out of time.
Term of Art
Bought for $220,000.
Nine starts, two wins, one second, two thirds. Won $170,105.
He’s a nice, big-looking colt for Calumet Farm. We’re dreaming about the Preakness or Belmont. ... The Belmont is more likely.
What’sontheagenda
Bought for $75,000.
Three starts, one win, one second, one third. Won $52,200.
He’s a nice
Dialed In [winner of Florida Derby and sire of Gunnevera] horse. He’s a little slow to develop, but he’s doing well.
Twitter: @jcherwa
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