Poll Analysis: Americans Divided Over Country’s Direction

It is almost one year since the tragic events of September 11, and the shock to the nation’s system has started to wane. The nation’s focus is now shifting away from thinking about terrorism and personal safety to thinking about domestic issues and the economy. President Bush still gets solid marks for handling his job and above average ratings for handling the economy and terrorism, but the Democrats are making inroads into these issues that are now concerning the American public according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. In addition, in a generic congressional horse race, Democrats beat Republicans by eight points. And compared to just six months ago, Democrats are now thought to be best on handling the major problems facing the country and domestic issues, like Social Security, the economy and the budget deficit. (Republicans are still seen as best handling the war on terrorism.) This fissure, along with rising concerns about the direction of the country and the economy will help Democrats with their campaigning during the midterm elections and perhaps is a foreshadowing of the 2004 presidential election.

President Bush

Although many Americans are still giving George W. Bush a solid job rating, it is not as stratospheric as his ratings once were. Before September 11, an April 2001 Times poll showed Bush with a job performance rating of 57%. Right after September 11, and well into this year, his marks were very high -- from the mid 70’s to the mid 80’s range (as late as six months ago, 80% of the nation approved of Bush’s job performance) with no partisanship or demographic differences. Today, two-thirds of the American public give Bush high marks for his handling of his job, while 27% view his work performance negatively. As past Gallup polls show, this is still ten points higher than any other president at this juncture of their tenure since World War II. Yet, partisanship is now rearing its head. In a February 2002 Times poll, 66% of Democrats approved of Bush handling his job and 24% disapproved. In this new poll there is a dramatic drop in the president’s rating by self-described Democrats. Nearly half (49%) approve of his handling his job, but a full 46% disapprove.

The American public’s perception of where the country is heading has declined substantially over the last six months. In a Times poll taken in February, almost two-thirds of the public thought the country was heading in the right direction, while only a quarter believed the country was seriously off on the wrong track. Today, the public is virtually divided over the course of where the country is going. Less than half (45%) each say the country is on the right direction and off on the wrong track. Roughly three out of five self-described Democrats and liberals say the country is pointed in a negative direction, while almost the same share of self-described Republicans and conservatives think the opposite. The reasons for the decline are: the economy (22%), Bush and his administration (16%), moral values (16%) and the threat of war with Iraq (10%).

Another reason for the pessimism is the perception of the economy. Since 9/11 there has been an erosion of confidence in the country’s state of economic being. More than half of the public say that the economy is doing well, but that is a precipitous drop from 71% in a September 2001 Times poll. People’s feelings about the economy are precarious at best and any major event can change their opinions which leaves the Republican party controlling the White House and House of Representatives in a vulnerable position. Now 45% think the economy is doing badly (when in September it was 25%). This result is the lowest since asked in a January 1995 Times poll. Americans blame President Bush and his economic policies (24%) for the country’s economic problems, as well as corporate fraud and greed (24%), the aftermath of September 11 (17%) and the Republicans in Congress (13%). Only 2% mention the Democrats in Congress and 6% cite the Clinton legacy to blame for the economic problems.

Americans believe that the Bush administration favors the rich (56%) and cares more about protecting the interests of large business corporations (55%) than protecting the interests of ordinary working people (25%). In spite of this, Bush’s job ratings on various issues are still good:

• Fifty-six percent of those surveyed say they approve of the way the president is handling the economy, 38% disapprove. There has been a decline in his ratings since six months ago. At that time, 66% approved and 28% disapproved of his performance on the economy. There is also a dramatic decline among Democrats. In a February Times poll, 46% of Democrats approved of Bush’s work on the economy, as well as another 46% disapproved. In the current poll, 3 out of five Democrats disapprove and only 3 in 10 approve.

• More than 3 out of five (61%) of those surveyed (a 15 point decline from six months ago) approve of the president handling foreign affairs, while roughly 3 out of 10 disapprove. Democrats disapprove of his handling this issue at 49%, while 40% approve. Six months ago, two-thirds of Democrats approved and a fifth disapproved. Independents went from a 74%–18% rating six months ago to a 60%–30% rating in the current poll.

• A large plurality (48%) approve of the way the president is handling the federal budget, but 37% disapprove. More than 3 out of 5 Democrats disapprove of Bush’s performance on the budget, while 27% approve.

• A majority of the respondents approve of Bush’s handling the issue of corporate fraud by large corporations compared to a third who disapprove. Again, Democrats disapprove of Bush’s performance on this issue.

• All groups approve of the way the president is handling the threat of terrorism (including 55% of Democrats and 56% of liberals). Almost three-quarters of all Americans wholeheartedly give Bush a thumbs up on this issue. However, right after 9/11, 64% approved “strongly,” compared to 44% in the current poll.

Congress

The ratings for Congress are still positive, although we are seeing a slight erosion from its high right after 9/11. More than half of the nation approves of the way Congress is handling its job, while 36% disapprove. In a Times poll in February, 59% approved of Congress’ job performance, 32% disapproved; in November 2001, 69% approved and 20% disapproved. Majorities of those who say they are Democrats, Republicans and independent, all approve of the job Congress is doing.

Three out of five respondents think that it is better for the country if there is a divided government, that is, one political party controls the White House and the other party controls Congress. The American public feels that checks and balances in government are essential for doing its job properly and ethically and that divided government is better for the country. There is a consensus for divided government by most demographic and political groups. Conservative Americans seem to be the exception -- a large minority (43%) want one party to control both the White House and Congress, while 49% believe divided government is necessary.

The poll also shows that the public is reverting back to pre-September 11 feelings of cynicism in their trust in government. In a November 2001 Times poll, nearly half of the nation thought they could trust the government always or most of the time. Now, 39% feel you could trust the government always/most of the time, while 61% are saying some of the time or hardly ever.

Now that the country is shifting gears and focusing again on issues important to them that were camouflaged by the anxiety over terrorism, Democrats seem to be in a better position than they were six months ago. For example, 38% of the nation believes that the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of handling the major problems facing the country, while 34% think the Republicans in Congress would. This is a reversal from six months ago, when 42% of all Americans thought the Republicans would be the party to solve the problems of the country and only 30% thought the Democrats. Interestingly, there is a slight gender gap -- women think the Democrats are the answer (43%–31%) while men think the GOP is (38%-33%). Independents are divided -- 32% for Democrats and 30% for Republicans.

Social Security has always been a Democratic stronghold and this poll shows no exception. Nearly half (47%) think the Democrats would be better on this issue, while 30% think the Republicans would. Although 69% of self-described Republicans think their own party would be best on this issue, there is a small minority, 16%, who think the Democrats are the better party for this domestic issue.

The economy is usually a Republican issue, but 44% of those surveyed believe that the Democrats would be better handling the nation’s economy compared to 38% who think the Republicans. Along the same lines, 43% of respondents think the Democrats would be better to handle the nation’s budget deficit, while 37% think the Republicans. Independents are divided over this issue with 39% agreeing that the Democrats would be best on this issue and 36% believing the Republicans would. This is not surprising, given that less than one in five think Bush and his administration have formulated a clear policy for dealing with the country’s economic policy.

One final issue the Times poll measured is the country’s national security and the war on terrorism. The poll shows that nearly half (48%) of Americans believe Republicans would do a better job handling this issue, while 26% think Democrats would. This result has not changed since the question was asked six months ago.

In this latest poll, 47% of all voters would support a Democratic congressional candidate over his/her Republican opponent (39%) when a generic congressional horse race question is asked. The perception by Americans that the Democratic Party would be better than the Republican Party on domestic issues mentioned above seems to have helped Democrats leap in front of their GOP counterparts. There is a large gender gap where women voters are far more inclined to vote for a Democrat in their congressional district (54%) than a Republican (32%) while the opposite is true of their male counterparts. Nearly half (48%) of all men who are registered to vote would cast their ballots for a Republican running in their congressional district and 40% would support a Democratic candidate. Independents, the swing voters, would split their vote (41% for a Democrat and 40% for a Republican. Voters living on either coast are more supportive of a Democrat candidate (East coast voters would support Democrats at 53%, Republicans at 31%; West coast voters would support Democrats at 52% and Republicans at 33%), while voters living in the South are divided (46% Democrats, 44% Republicans) and those voters living in the Midwest would be more inclined to vote for a Republican (47% Republicans, 40% Democrats). If the respondents think the country is heading off on the wrong track, they tend to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate (61%), while the reverse is true of respondents who think the country is heading in the right direction. Fifty-three percent of this group would vote for a Republican candidate.

Some of the issues that would be most important to voters when they decide on a congressional candidate are the economy/jobs at 28% and homeland security at 11%. Issues important to women voters are slightly different than men’s. For women voters, the issues are the economy and jobs, 25%, education, 11% and health care, 10%. For men, it is also the economy and jobs, 31%, but cite homeland security, 14%, and tax cuts, 11%, as the important issues for them.

The public wants the government to focus more on reducing the deficit than issuing any more tax cuts as a means to boosting the nation’s economy. Social Security is always a controversial issue. One issue is that of the president’s proposal to allow individuals to divert some of their Social Security money and invest it in private stock market accounts. In a March 2001 Times poll, nearly three out of five respondents thought that would be a good idea, while a third disapproved of it. In this poll, the public is divided -- 48% approve and 44% disapprove. But when respondents were asked if they would still support this proposal even if it meant a reduction in benefits, then it substantially changes the equation. A quarter of Americans would support the diversion of part of their Social Security payroll taxes into private account which they could personally invest in the stock market and would support it even if there was a reduction in benefits. However, the opposition to Bush’s proposal rises significantly when it is mentioned that it would mean a reduction in benefits. Nearly two-thirds (64%) say they would not support this diversion of Social Security money into private stock market accounts if it meant a reduction in benefits. Not surprisingly, opposition is strongest among the older cohorts in the study. Almost four out of five elderly (65 and older) oppose this idea if it means a reduction in benefits, as do 69% of those 45-64 years of age. There is also a majority (59%) of the 18-29 year olds who oppose it as well.

The 2004 Presidential Election

There has been speculation that Vice President Dick Cheney may be removed from the 2004 presidential ticket. When that question was posed to those who describe themselves as Republican, three quarters of them say keep Cheney on the ticket. Almost four out of five Republican conservative voters are especially insistent that Cheney remain.

There was some good news for former Vice President Al Gore. Among Democratic voters, the question was posed about the possibility of former Vice President Al Gore running for president again. Nearly 3 in 10 who describe themselves as Democrats say they would definitely vote for Gore again and more than a third say they would probably vote for him (for a combined 64% who would vote for the former vice president). A third would probably or definitely not vote for the former vice president (13% definitely not, 19% probably not).

The Economy

The survey found Americans with mixed emotions about a post-September 11th economy which has been marked by stock market mood swings, revelations of wrongdoing in some of the country’s biggest corporations, run-ups in real estate prices and the announced end of the recession.

Generally, the outlook tends to be more pessimistic than it was last year. The percentage of those who think the country is headed in the right direction has dropped twenty percentage points from 65% in a November 2001 Times poll to 45% today. Similarly, there was a seventeen percentage point downturn in the number who expressed positive feelings about the nation’s economy -- falling from 71% who said it was doing well in a Times survey conducted a few days after the events of September 11th last year to 54% who said the same thing today. Forty-five percent of Americans now say the economy is doing badly, compared to 25% who said the same thing a year ago.

When those who said the national economy is not doing well were asked who or what was to blame, corporate fraud was mentioned nearly a quarter of the time followed by President Bush’s economic policies (24%), the events of September 11th (17%) and the activities of the Republicans in Congress (13%).

Nearly two-thirds of Americans describe their own personal finances as at least fairly secure, but that number has dropped twelve percentage points from 77% measured by a Times poll just six months ago.

However, Americans continue to be hopeful. Only 15% believe that the economy will decline over the next six months while 38% predict improvement in the short term and 43% said they think things won’t change much in that time. Fears of recession also seem to be receding. Compared to the eight in ten who told a February 2002 Times survey that the country was in recession, just under six in ten now believe the same thing. Barely more than one in ten are characterizing the economy as being in a serious recession. In addition, more than half (56%) say that this is a good (47%) or excellent (9%) time to purchase big-ticket items like furniture, appliances, vacations and cars.

The dramatic nature of the stock market’s recent behavior is capturing the attention of more Americans than ever. Forty-five percent now say they are following the news of the stock market at least somewhat closely, compared to 55% who don’t. A Times poll taken just over two years ago -- May 2000 -- found 62% paying little or no attention, and less than four in ten (37%) who were. Not surprisingly many more stock owners (63%) pay attention to the market than do non-owners (23%).

Despite what could be described as mercurial behavior on the part of the stock market over the last few years, two thirds of the country still expresses at least some confidence that the market will do better during the coming twelve months. However only 28% view it as a safe place to invest one’s money, while 58% view it as too risky. Even a plurality (47%) of those who predict the stock market will improve in the next year view it as too risky a place to invest.

Most Americans found the Bush administration lacking when it comes to formulating economic policy -- his job approval rating on the economy is down 10 percentage points from six months ago and more than seven in ten Americans said they think the Bush administration has no clear policy, but is just reacting to events as they occur. There is little consensus on what efforts they would like to see the government make to improve the economic situation. Top mentions were creating jobs and cutting taxes. Sixteen percent overall said they’d like to see the government work on creating more jobs. This figure climbs to19% among Democrats and drops to 11% among Republicans. Thirteen percent overall said the government should cut taxes, favored by 23% of Republicans and only 9% of Democrats. Two in ten overall said they weren’t sure what should be done.

Gender Gap

As well as the predictable divide along political lines, the survey found that men and women often disagree about the economy, or agree with varying intensity. For example, men view the status of the economy more positively, giving it a 59% to 40% thumbs up, while women are split 49% to 50%. Men who think the economy is bad are more likely to blame corporate fraud (30%) than are women (19%). Women most often blamed President Bush and his economic policies (26%), along with 21% of men.

A plurality of men (45%) predict the economy will improve in the next six months, while 32% of women feel that way. There is little difference when it comes to personal finances, with only a small difference by gender. However, when it comes to deciding whether to make a major purchase such as a car or new furniture, men are thirteen percentage points more likely than women to say it is a good or excellent time.

Fewer women than men follow the stock market on a regular basis, even though they are just as likely to own stock. Women are also less likely to say they have confidence that the market will improve in the coming year than are men, although both agree that the market is a risky place to invest.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,372 Americans nationwide, including 1,163 registered voters, by telephone August 22-25. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.