Oscars 2024: Early predictions for the actor and supporting actor races
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY SUSANA SANCHEZ / L.A. TIMES
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If you’ve seen Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” you may well still be sifting through some complicated feelings about Leonardo DiCaprio’s character — and perhaps even his performance in the film.
Know this: You’re not alone. In fact, DiCaprio himself still has trouble reconciling the actions of his character, Ernest Burkhart, a dimwitted WWI veteran who arrives in Oklahoma to work for his wealthy uncle, William Hale (Robert De Niro), a calculating rancher with an eye on laying claim to the oil-rich tribal lands owned by the Osage Nation. At Hale’s behest, Ernest marries Mollie (Lily Gladstone) and — spoiler alert — begins, again at the suggestion of his uncle — to help plot the murders of Mollie’s family and even Mollie herself, even as he continues to profess his love for his wife.
“It was the most bizarre, twisted, love story I’d ever come across,” DiCaprio said at a recent screening of the film that was packed with academy and guild voters, along with, sure, people who came out just to see Leonardo DiCaprio. “Here’s this man in court, giving testimony admitting to being a part of killing off his wife’s entire bloodline ... but as horrible as it may seem and as twisted as it may seem, they did have a love for one another.”
Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro and Lily Gladstone star in Martin Scorsese’s ambitious adaptation of David Grann’s book about marriage and murder in 1920s Osage country.
As a portrait of cornfed evil, it’s chilling. But also: Ernest’s courtship of Mollie is charming and, in the early moments, romantic and sweet. Gladstone is being celebrated, rightfully so, for giving the film its heartbreaking center. But DiCaprio gives an interesting performance in a tricky role, and his exhaustive work in “Killers of the Flower Moon” (he’s in nearly every scene of the 206-minute movie) promises to soon land him his sixth lead acting Oscar nomination.
Who will be joining him? Let’s take an early look at the lead and supporting actor categories.
LEAD ACTOR
It wouldn’t be the Oscars without a plethora of contenders — and a couple of nominations — from actors starring in “great man” biopics. The best of the group, Cillian Murphy in “Oppenheimer,” deconstructs that particular genre in its complicated look at the brilliant physicist, the so-called “father of the atomic bomb,” who is tortured by what he has unleashed on the world. Bradley Cooper also offers an illuminating take on the form, both as an actor and filmmaker, in “Maestro,” conveying conductor Leonard Bernstein’s passion for music and life along with the toll it took on his psyche. The performance may well win Cooper his first Oscar.
After Murphy, Cooper and DiCaprio (there is a small voice telling me the last could be left out because of the way audiences react to his character), you have another trio of actors playing real-life characters — Colman Domingo as civil rights leader Bayard Rustin in “Rustin,” Adam Driver playing Italian motor racing legend Enzo Ferrari in “Ferrari” and Joaquin Phoenix as bicorn hat enthusiast Napoleon Bonaparte in “Napoleon.” Ridley Scott’s film also attempts to puncture the notion of the “great man” but succeeds only fitfully despite Phoenix’s deft, absurdist take.
After “Ferrari” and “House of Gucci,” a case could be made for Driver to do only parts requiring a heavy Italian accent. That said, who wants to put limits on one of our great movie stars? Of this group, Domingo has the best chance to earn a nomination for his dynamic, illuminating work in “Rustin,” though the performance surpasses the movie. Domingo is also a force as the heavy in “The Color Purple,” and voters may respond to his range by rewarding him here.
Other contenders could pose trouble for him, though. Paul Giamatti somehow wasn’t nominated for his brilliant, openhearted turn in Alexander Payne’s 2004 melancholy masterpiece, “Sideways,” which will give voters some incentive to reward him for his reunion with Payne, “The Holdovers.” The movie isn’t the equal of its predecessor, but Giamatti’s precise, humane presence has been a hit thus far with awards voters.
Giamatti has a single Oscar nomination for his stellar career, which still puts him ahead of Jeffrey Wright, another respected actor starring in a crowd-pleaser this season. “American Fiction” finds Wright, like Giamatti, playing a curmudgeonly educator whose hard exterior masks a tender longing. The film won the audience prize at the Toronto International Film Festival and has been a hot ticket with voters the last few weeks.
Finally, a possible spoiler: Andrew Scott is 47 and boasts a long résumé of distinguished credits in British theater, the BBC series “Sherlock” and, of course, the rather handsome priest on “Fleabag.” With “All of Us Strangers,” he finally has a film role worthy of his talent, playing a solitary man dealing with the ghosts of his past and, perhaps, his present. It’s a beautiful turn filled with vulnerability and openness. You’ll be hearing a lot about it in the coming weeks. (His co-star, Paul Mescal, up for supporting, is grand too.)
Nominees: Murphy, Cooper, DiCaprio, Giamatti, Wright
On the 2023 Envelope Actors Roundtable, Colman Domingo, Paul Giamatti, Cillian Murphy, Mark Ruffalo, Andrew Scott and Jeffrey Wright exchange views on AI, work that changed their lives and looking like other actors.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
De Niro was nominated as a producer for “The Irishman,” Scorsese’s last movie before “Killers of the Flower Moon,” but was overlooked for his muted lead turn. That won’t happen this year; he’s unforgettable as the film’s malignant monster. He’ll be joined by two other well-known names: Ryan Gosling for his superb, scene-stealing comedic turn in “Barbie,” and Robert Downey Jr., tremendous as the icy, vindictive rival of the (anti)hero in “Oppenheimer.” This is going to be a fun race.
Mark Ruffalo is another likely nominee for his hilarious, over-the-top (and increasingly befuddled) scoundrel in “Poor Things.” To see him and Downey outside the Marvel Cinematic Universe is to be reminded again of their ample talents. Ruffalo’s “Poor Things” castmate Willem Dafoe is terrific too as the mad doctor referred to as God.
Really, there’s no shortage of people to hype here. I could simply list every actor playing a scientist in “Oppenheimer” or perhaps just single out Matt Damon, essential to the film as Manhattan Project director Leslie Groves. His lead turn as Sonny Vaccaro in “Air” is great too. Have you ever seen a bad Matt Damon performance? I’m stumped.
Sterling K. Brown is always reliable as well, and he’s in fine form as the irresponsible gay brother in “American Fiction,” owning a couple of big scenes that will stick in voters’ minds. “BlackBerry” is practically one long highlight reel for Glenn Howerton and the volcanic energy he brings to the movie’s rapacious salesman. And newcomer Dominic Sessa holds his own against Giamatti in “The Holdovers,” indicating that he should have a long career ahead.
But if there’s an actor nominated for stealing a movie from his more-famous co-stars, it’ll likely be Charles Melton for Todd Haynes’ “May December.” Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore are the headliners, but it’s Melton’s work as Joe, the disconnected man-child still married to a woman who preyed upon him as a seventh-grader, that has people talking. Joe just wants to fly far away, like the monarch butterflies he raises. Melton makes Joe’s agony so palpable that I found myself rooting for him as for no other character in a movie this year.
Nominees: Downey, Gosling, De Niro, Ruffalo, Melton
From the Oscars to the Emmys.
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