Latinx Files: America is getting older. Not all racial and ethnic groups are aging at the same rate

The number of working-age people in the United States is on pace to shrink by 2060, though not all racial and ethnic groups are aging at the same rate.

On Tuesday, the Census Bureau published a report that used population projections under various immigration scenarios — ranging from zero immigration to a 50% increase in immigration based on current trends — to look at how the workforce will change in the coming decades. With the exception of the non-Latinx multiracial population, every group will see an increase in its share of people over the age of 65 across all immigration scenarios.

In 2022, 67.4% of the Latinx population was considered to be of working age (15 to 64). By 2060, that figure is expected to drop regardless of immigration patterns. Under the high immigration scenario, 64.3% of Latinxs will be of working age in 2060. Under the zero immigration scenario, that number drops to 63%.

For comparison, 63.3% of the non-Latinx white population was of working age in 2022. That number is expected to drop to 58.6% in 2060 with high levels of immigration, and to 57.3% with zero immigration. It’s worth noting that the growth of the Latinx population has been fueled by native births for the last two decades. According to a 2023 Pew Research Center report, the U.S.-born Latinx population grew by 10.7 million, whereas the immigrant population grew by 1.1 million.

In a separate report, the Census Bureau found that the country has been getting older for decades. The U.S. population age 65 and older grew approximately five times faster than the total population from 1920 to 2020.

Per the government agency, the overall decrease in the working-age population could lead to “potential economic burdens” in key areas such as healthcare, informal caregiving, Social Security and the economy.

But there is one thing that could help: more immigration.

“Increases in fertility and immigration can help mitigate the impact,” the report said. “A greater share of immigrants are of working age than the native-born population and fertility rates are higher among foreign-born women.”

The influx of immigrants has been particularly beneficial for California. On Tuesday, The Times published a story by staff writer Don Lee that looked at what effect an increase in immigration has had on the Golden State.

“The surge of international migrants since 2021 — including refugees, asylum seekers and others entering legally and illegally — has lifted the U.S. and California economies by filling otherwise vacant jobs, helping to keep job creation strong, growing businesses and pumping millions of tax dollars into state, local and federal coffers,” wrote Lee.

“This is the hottest labor market that has existed in two generations,” Michael Clemens, an economist at George Mason University, told Lee. “That means there have never been as many opportunities for immigrants and natives to mutually benefit each other through economic interaction in the last half century.”

The release of the Census Bureau findings — and Lee’s deeply reported story — feels opportune given how immigration has become one of the major issues in this year’s presidential election.

You can find the complete Census Bureau report here, and Lee’s recent story here.

(Jackie Rivera / For The Times; Martina Ibáñez-Baldor / Los Angeles Times)

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