Mapping tool shows your city's possible climate in 60 years - Los Angeles Times
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Climate scientists hope this new mapping tool helps drive the point home

An uneven dirt road is bordered by desert plants; a hawk flies overhead and mountains are in the background.
A red-tailed hawk flies over the historic Mojave Road in San Bernardino County’s Mojave National Preserve.
(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)
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Good morning. It’s Monday, Aug. 5. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

Mapping your town’s possible climate future

The consequences of climate change are right there in the name.

But despite the ever-growing scientific evidence, the ongoing media coverage (from The Times and elsewhere) and an international treaty aimed at mitigating its effects, the scope of the crisis can be difficult to fathom on a personal level.

Researchers at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science created a mapping tool they hope will bring the point home for people by allowing them to see how their local climate is projected to change in 60 years — and which city or region mirrors those conditions right now.

The new tool was built using modeling from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other research groups and presents its findings under two scenarios: high emissions, a future in which we failed to meaningfully cut emissions and mostly let global warming continue unabated; or reduced emissions, which assumes we collectively took meaningful action to curb emissions, though still shy of the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

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Much of Southern California would trade its celebrated Mediterranean climate for more of a desert environment, according to researchers, who project that, if we fail at meaningful action, by 2080:

  • Los Angeles will have an overall climate similar to what’s presently experienced in Rialto, a city in southwestern San Bernardino County;
  • San Diego’s climate will be more akin to Vicente Guerrero, in Baja California, Mexico;
  • Sacramento will feel like Garnet, near Palm Springs in Riverside County;
  • Redding could feel more like Fountain Hills, a town about 30 miles northeast of Phoenix.

Many cities and regions across the state can expect hotter summers and warmer winters. For instance, a typical summer in Long Beach will be 7.7 degrees hotter, and winters will be 5.6 degrees warmer. People living in San Jose will experience summer temperatures nearly 10 degrees higher and the climate will feel more like present-day Redlands.

“It’s not only the temperature that will change,” Times environment reporter Hayley Smith wrote. “The map lays out how precipitation could shift, with many parts of California expected to see wetter summers and winters in addition to warmer ones.”

A person and a dog are silhouetted against the sun in the background.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
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But experts warn that wetter summers don’t mean less drought. Drought could actually become more common because hotter conditions dry out soil faster.

And researchers say it wouldn’t just be the same world but warmer. The crisis would compromise food supplies and lead to more international competition for resources. It’s projected that economic development would stagger, followed by a cascade of impacts to education, technological development and more.

Under the more optimistic scenario that we manage to reach net zero emissions around 2050, average temperatures would still rise but notably less than the worst-case scenario. Even so, our climate is expected to shift.

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On the map, that rosier outlook projects that Los Angeles’ climate would be similar to that of Castaic in 60 years, a community just north of Santa Clarita, with temperatures averaging 2.6 degrees warmer in summer and 1.4 degrees in winter.

Matt Fitzpatrick, a professor of global change ecology who created the mapping tool, told Hayley the map is a “really interesting way to communicate to people the magnitude of climate change that we’re expecting.”

That communication faces some challenges. Survey data from Pew Research Center last year suggest Americans’ confidence in climate science has fallen.

According to its survey, just under a third of Americans think climate scientists understand very well whether climate change is happening, down from 37% in a 2021 survey. And 47% of those asked believe climate scientists don’t have a good understanding of the best ways to address climate change.

There’s a clear partisan divide too, with Democrats rating climate scientists’ understanding far higher than the marks given by Republicans.

Climate scientists keep sounding the alarm, despite those clear divisions. And belief may be one important aspect of the challenges scientists face, but persuading individuals and governments to take meaningful action could be the harder sell.

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“The longer we wait, the harder it is to address this problem, but it’s not hopeless. There’s still plenty that we can do to try to avoid the worst effects,” Fitzpatrick told Hayley. “[But] we’re performing a giant experiment on our planet right now, and things could get really bad. Scientists could be just as easily under-predicting the outcomes [as] they could be over-predicting.”

You can read Hayley’s full story here and explore the mapping tool for yourself.

Today’s top stories

A bird's-eye view of children cooling off in a spray pool.
Children cool off as they play in a spray pool amid the heat at Rio de Los Angeles State Park in Los Angeles on June 6.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

Another heat wave

Fires

The COVID surge

Hollywood production collapse

Crime, justice and courts

More big stories


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Commentary and opinions

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Today’s great reads

A close-up of a hand holding a small baby goose near a water bowl.
An Egyptian gosling is cared for after being abandoned by its mother at a golf course.
(Jireh Deng / Los Angeles Times)

This Riverside County man is on a mission to save California’s abandoned ducks, geese and chickens. Howard Berkowitz has sacrificed his marriage, his job and, soon, his house to continue his quest. “Birds are completely different,” Berkowitz told Times reporting fellow Jireh Deng. “When they bond with a human, you actually become part of their flock.”

More great reads


How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to [email protected].


For your downtime

A group of people gathered around a table in a craft room, some holding sewing supplies.
Scout Quiquivix, left, teaches the Radical Sewing Club class at Midnight Books on June 26 in Huntington Park.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

Going out

Staying in

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And finally ... a great photo

Show us your favorite place in California! We’re running low on submissions. Send us photos that scream California and we may feature them in an edition of Essential California.

A person stands among bounders and pine trees on a mountain trail.
Patty Loo snapped this photo of her son taking in the scenery from Desert View Trail in Mt. San Jacinto State Park.
(Patty Loo)

Today’s great photo is from Patty Loo of Redlands: Mt. San Jacinto State Park, preferably reached via an aerial tram from the desert floor.

Patty writes: “Where else can go from the desert to an alpine forest in 10 minutes? Via the Palm Springs tramway you go from an elevation of 600 feet to 8,516 feet and experience a temperature change of 30 to 40 degrees. It’s great as an escape from the heat of summer, and in winter a fun day in the snow for the whole family.”

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Amy Hubbard, deputy editor, Fast Break

Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on latimes.com.

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