History’s been kind to NCAA favorites

The NCAA men’s basketball tournament has a reputation for big upsets, but the key to March Madness for bettors is to support favorites when it comes to picking the eventual national champion.

Since the tournament began seeding teams in 1979, 21 of 29 champions have been seeded No. 1 or No. 2 and only three teams seeded higher than eighth have even reached the Final Four.

That’s why on most betting boards, future odds for this year’s tournament lean heavily on top-seeded teams UCLA, North Carolina, Kansas and Memphis.

The Bruins are listed as 7-2 favorites to win it all, followed by the Tar Heels at 9-2, Jayhawks at 5-1 and Tigers at 8-1, quality lines when you consider that every other team in the tournament faces double-digit odds or greater.

But there are a couple of “long-shot” teams attracting support to pull off an upset, and they are perennial powers Duke, Georgetown, Louisville and Texas.

According to Sportsbook.com’s most recent tournament line, the Blue Devils -- who have reached the Final Four 10 times under Coach Mike Krzyzewski -- are at 15-1, with the Hoyas and Cardinals at 12-1 and the Longhorns at 10-1.

Note: Southern California’s three other tournament teams are big-time longshots: USC is 40-1, San Diego is 400-1 and Cal State Fullerton is not listed on most boards.

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For first-round games, Georgetown has gained the most support to cover its point-spread line, according to Wagerline.com’s consensus betting list.

The Hoyas, favored by 16 points over Maryland Baltimore County, have been picked by 78.25% to beat the spread against the Retrievers.

USC is another team getting strong money play, according to theSpread.com’s betting chart. The Trojans, who are favored by 2 1/2 points over Kansas State, have gained 77% of the bets against the spread as of Tuesday afternoon.

It’s a much different story for UCLA, which is favored by 33 points over Mississippi Valley State. The Bruins have been selected to cover the spread against the Delta Devils by only 41%, according to theSpread.com’s betting chart.

Auto racing

The NASCAR season is still young and Kyle Busch leads the standings by 30 points over Greg Biffle, 33 points over Kevin Harvick and 37 points over Jeff Burton.

Without any major races this weekend, the top drivers can rest up and look ahead to the Goody’s Cool Orange 500 at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway on March 30. It also marks a good time to look at the updated odds to win this season’s Sprint Cup championship.

According to Bodoglife.com, Kyle Busch is now listed at 4-1, followed by Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who are both at 5-1. Jimmie Johnson is next at 6-1 with Jeff Gordon at 13-2, Carl Edwards at 7-1 and Matt Kenseth at 8-1.

Despite their fast starts, Biffle is listed at 12-1, Harvick at 16-1 and Burton at 20-1.

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