State Has Oddly Mild Flu Season

The flu season in California appears to have peaked without a major outbreak despite the fact that thousands of doses of the flu vaccine remain unused.

Health officials had feared that the flu season would be harsher than normal because of a nationwide shortage of flu vaccine. Although the shortage initially led to long lines at drug stores and clinics distributing the vaccine, California ended up by December with a surplus of flu shots and few takers.

Based on reports from hospitals, health clinics and doctors’ offices, the state health department said California had seen only sporadic cases of influenza during the flu season, which usually begins in late December and lasts through March.

By contrast, other parts of the country have seen much more severe outbreaks of the flu.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 states in the Midwest, Northeast and Southwest have reported “widespread” incidents of the flu, including Michigan, Nevada, New York, Texas, Virginia and Washington.

In some places, schools have been temporarily closed because the flu bug swept through.

Only two states -- Alabama and California -- have reported “sporadic” instances of the flu, according to the CDC. And experts are puzzled as to why.

“If I knew the answer to that, I’d get the Nobel Prize,” said Dr. Jonathan Fielding, Los Angeles County’s public health director. “Some years, we’ve had it stronger than other places.”

Officials say flu activity is largely dictated by the movement of those who are infected.

“The flu comes and goes like weather patterns,” said Robert Schechter, co-chairman of the California Department of Health Services. “A storm front may start in one area and pass to another. There are some common patterns, but it’s hard to predict where it’s going to hit.”

Perhaps the most significant element of California’s flu season was the discovery in Santa Clara County of a new strain of the influenza that experts believe may be prevalent in the next year.

Named A/California, the new strain is in the same family as A/Fujian, which is this year’s most common and potent strain. Although the new strain has not resulted in any significant outbreaks, health officials are warning that it could produce flu cases through the end of March.

“There’s no reason to think the new strain is any more or less dramatic than other flu strains circulating in the community,” Schechter said.

On Thursday, the World Health Organization made its annual recommendations on which flu strains should be targeted for vaccine in the next flu season, and included A/California on the list.

Officials stressed that even though the flu season is beginning to wane, there is still time to get the flu shot and receive some level of protection.

“At this point, the perception in both the public and [among] some healthcare providers is that it’s too late,” said Schechter, adding that patients interested in a shot should contact their doctors. “That isn’t the case.”

In October, health officials limited the flu vaccine to “high-risk” patients, such as elderly people, young children and those with weak immune systems.

But the vaccine shortage, caused by apparent contamination at a vaccine plant in England, turned out not to be as severe as originally was thought, and demand dropped off by December. Officials then made the vaccine available to all but found few takers.

Because influenza mutates, a new batch of vaccine must be made each year to combat the strain of flu that experts believe is most likely to be prevalent.

That means there is a chance that 3.5 million doses of vaccine now held by the CDC could be thrown away if doctors or health providers don’t order it.

Only last month, hundreds of thousands of doses were earmarked by the CDC for California.

But the mild flu season and low demand in the state forced officials to return those doses to the national supply so that states in more need could use it, Schechter said.

The lack of demand for the vaccine and other flu-fighting products has caught some by surprise. The manufacturers of the nasal spray FluMist upped production of its vaccine from 1 million doses to 3 million in light of the shortage. But just over half of the medicine was sold, a company spokeswoman said.

“My concern with the mild season is that people will start shying away from getting a shot next year and demand will go down” again, said Chris Grounds, vice president of national accounts for FFF Enterprises Inc., one of the largest suppliers of vaccine to assisted- living and nursing homes.

Although health officials are gratified that California has not been hit harder by the flu, they are not declaring victory just yet.

“We’re still looking at the potential for a season to occur,” said Von Roebuck, a CDC spokesman. “In a way, it’s fortunate we had a mild season so far and that folks didn’t get ill, which is always good news. At the same time, we need to continue to move forward with vaccinations for people who need it most.”