Fewer Latinos Back Davis This Time

California’s Latino voters, who energetically supported Gray Davis’ candidacy in 1998, still favor the Democratic governor but are decidedly less enthusiastic about him this year, according to interviews with voters and experts on Latino politics.

At this point in the 1998 governor’s race, 72% of Latino voters said they were backing Davis. He ultimately won 71% of the Latino vote, according to Los Angeles Times exit polls of voters. According to a Times poll published Tuesday, however, Davis is currently supported by 57% of likely Latino voters.

Analysts said that dismay over Davis’ veto of a bill that would have allowed some illegal immigrants to get driver’s licenses, apathy toward both major gubernatorial candidates and an absence of competitive legislative races have contributed to a sense of ambivalence about this year’s election.

“I think Latinos are affected by the same malaise that is affecting voter participation as a whole,” said Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute, a Los Angeles-based research group that studies Latino political trends. “A big majority are still going with Davis and the Democrats, but they’re not enthusiastic because the perception is that the gains made over the last four years were really like pulling teeth with the administration.”

Linda De Los Reyes, a student and mother of four in Sacramento, said she has many friends who are contemplating a vote for Green Party candidate Peter Camejo because of their frustration with Davis.

“A lot of Latinos are dissatisfied with him,” said the 48-year-old, who was polled by The Times. “No one is really like, ‘Hey, we want Davis,’ but they definitely don’t want [Bill] Simon.”

The Republican gubernatorial candidate has tried to appeal to Latinos by promising to improve schools and the economy, and touting his platform on Spanish-language television. At the same time, however, he has embraced the support of former Gov. Pete Wilson, whose backing of a controversial anti-illegal immigration measure in 1994 angered many Latinos.

While Davis’ Latino support has softened, Simon has not succeeded in drawing those voters to his candidacy. A quarter of Latino voters surveyed by The Times said they plan to cast ballots for Simon -- the same proportion that historically vote for Republican candidates in state and national elections.

Almost a fifth of Latino voters surveyed by The Times described themselves either as undecided or supporting a third-party candidate.

Small Gain in Turnout

Without a compelling ballot initiative or candidate to propel large numbers to the polls, Latino turnout is expected to make only modest gains on Nov. 5. According to voting experts, Latinos are expected to make up about 17% of the electorate next week, up from 13% in 1998.

Elizabeth Perez, an artist and teacher who lives in Los Feliz, exemplified the ambivalence that many said exists in the Latino community. She said she’s voting for Davis only because she doesn’t want a Republican to win.

“I have been really feeling let down by him, particularly in the energy crisis,” said Perez, 50. “I’m really not very moved by anything I’ve heard about him.”

The mood of Perez and others is dramatically different from 1998, when Davis was swept into office by a wave of union members, Latinos and other Democrats eager to end a 16-year stretch of Republican governors. They also helped elect Cruz Bustamante as the state’s first Latino lieutenant governor.

At the time, thousands of Latino voters had recently registered to vote, their political activism fueled by Wilson’s advocacy for Proposition 187 during the previous governor’s race.

“People were excited about getting rid of Pete Wilson’s legacy,” said Los Angeles labor leader Miguel Contreras. “I don’t think there’s that excitement this time.”

Although Davis was recently praised by Latino labor leaders for signing a measure mandating arbitration between growers and farm workers, he drew criticism for vetoing the bill that would have allowed illegal immigrants in the process of becoming citizens to get driver’s licenses.

“There’s kind of a mixed review” of the Davis administration, said Harry Pachon, president of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, a Claremont think tank. Many Latinos are happy that the governor expanded a health insurance program for low-income families, but are disappointed with the decisions Davis made during bill-signing season, he added.

“The farm workers’ [measure] was very important symbolically, but in effect, the driver’s license issue had a greater impact on more people,” said Pachon, noting that the majority of the state’s Latinos live in urban centers.

Support Is Fractured

While a majority of Latinos surveyed in the Times poll favored the governor’s veto of the driver’s license measure, his actions fractured his support among the 22 members of the Latino legislative caucus. Early this month, the group decided not to endorse Davis’ reelection. Assemblyman Gil Cedillo (D-Los Angeles), the original author of the measure, said he felt betrayed by Davis and will not vote for him. Later, however, 17 of the 22 signed onto a Davis endorsement that ran in the Spanish-language newspaper La Opinion.

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Assn. Of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, said the dissension among Latino leaders has affected their constituents.

“Enthusiasm is not the highest,” Vargas said.

Guadalupe Gomez, president of the Mexican Federations of Los Angeles, which represents about 150,000 Mexican immigrants, said that Davis’ opposition to the driver’s license bill generated anger among many new voters who have undocumented friends and family members.

Many will probably still vote for Davis, he said, but with mixed feelings.

“They’re confused, they’re hurt, they’re sad that we were not able to get the driver’s license initiative passed,” Gomez said.

Boyle Heights resident Rosalinda Cabrera, a 22-year-old student, was among those upset by Davis’ veto.

“I don’t think that was fair,” Cabrera said. “I have family who wanted their licenses, and they couldn’t get them.”

But 79-year-old Angel Sanchez said that although he did not agree with the governor’s veto, he still thinks Davis is a good leader.

“Latinos will be angry, but they have to realize that that was his decision,” the Riverside resident said. “It doesn’t mean that Simon is thinking any differently about it.”

In the last few weeks, Davis has made a concerted effort to build back support among Latinos by campaigning with Sen. Richard Polanco (D-Los Angeles), United Farm Worker co-founder Dolores Huerta and other community leaders. His campaign has run commercials on Spanish-language television, taken out ads in La Opinion and sent out bilingual mailers touting Davis’ friendship with legendary civil rights leader Cesar Chavez.

Unimpressed by Mailer

Alfred Reyes, a carpenter from Riverside, recently received the Chavez mailer, but said he was unimpressed by its message.

“I think it’s just politics,” said Reyes, 56, adding that his dismay with Davis’ performance during the energy crisis and veto of the driver’s license bill has made him uneasy about voting for the governor.

“I’m not really happy with him, but of choices that we have, I think I will go with him,” Reyes said. “He’s the lesser of two evils.”

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Davis, Simon voter profiles

The Los Angeles Times Poll was conducted among 879 likely voters statewide, Oct. 22-27.

Party identification

Democrats

Simon -- 10%

Davis -- 74%

Independents

Simon -- 19%

Davis -- 47%

Republicans

Simon -- 75%

Davis -- 12%

*

Political ideology

Liberal

Simon -- 8%

Davis -- 76%

Moderate

Simon -- 28%

Davis -- 46%

Conservative

Simon -- 72%

Davis -- 15%

*

Gender

Male

Simon -- 43%

Davis -- 42%

Female

Simon -- 29%

Davis -- 49%

*

Ethnicity/Race++

White

Simon -- 44%

Davis -- 36%

Latino

Simon -- 25%

Davis -- 57%

*

Age

18-44 years old

Simon -- 32%

Davis -- 47%

45-64

Simon -- 34%

Davis -- 46%

65 and over

Simon -- 45%

Davis -- 42%

*

Household income

Less than $40,000

Simon -- 27%

Davis -- 51%

$40,000 to $60,000

Simon -- 39%

Davis -- 38%

More than $60,000

Simon -- 45%

Davis -- 42%

*

Union household

Simon -- 24%

Davis -- 58%

*

California areas

Los Angeles

Simon -- 31%

Davis -- 52%

Rest of Southern California

Simon -- 44%

Davis -- 41%

Bay Area

Simon -- 27%

Davis -- 48%

Central Valley

Simon -- 43%

Davis -- 36%

Rest of Northern California

Simon -- 29%

Davis -- 51%

*

++African American and Asian-American voters were part of the likely voter sample, but there were not enough in these groups to analyze as a separate subgroup.

*

Numbers may not total 100% where some answer categories are not shown. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

*

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll