CenterLine Would Be a Track Star, Study Says

As light-rail opponents geared up for a political fight, researchers at Cal State Fullerton predicted Thursday that a commuter train proposed for central Orange County will create more than 29,000 jobs and pump $3.2 billion into the local economy if it is built.

The forecasts by the Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies also show that the recently revived CenterLine project would generate almost $450 million in federal, state and local tax revenue during construction and the first 20 years of operation.

The proposed rail line was shelved more than a year ago after political and business support withered. The revived--and greatly shortened--rail line would extend 18 miles through Irvine, Santa Ana, and Costa Mesa. The original project called for a $2.3-billion, 35-mile line from Irvine to Fullerton. Early estimates indicate the shortened line would cost about $1.5 billion to build and $632 million to operate and maintain for 20 years after service begins.

The line--which would link county buildings, South Coast Plaza and perhaps UC Irvine--would initially attract up to 30,000 passengers a day, Orange County Transportation Authority officials estimate. They project that daily ridership would eventually climb to more than 40,000.

“CenterLine is not just a transportation project. It is an economic engine,” said county Supervisor Todd Spitzer, who chairs the OCTA board. “The data shows the public how dollars generated by the project will ripple through the county.”

The OCTA board, which has authorized preliminary economic and engineering studies, is assessing the feasibility of the project. A final decision on the line is more than a year away.

The institute’s analysis could help supporters sell the project to other cities. A coalition of municipalities in western Orange County already has formed to attract CenterLine service. Another is getting started in North County.

While acknowledging that CenterLine will have economic benefits, critics say light-rail systems are more costly, carry fewer passengers and offer less flexibility than bus service.

Since light rail nationally serves less than half a percent of all commuters, critics contend CenterLine would do little to relieve rush-hour traffic congestion and air pollution.

National studies show that while there are successful light-rail systems in the country, the majority exceed their cost estimates and fall short of their ridership projections, sometimes dramatically.

“You could dig a $2-billion ditch in the middle of Orange County and accomplish the same thing economically as CenterLine,” said Jack Mallinckrodt, a director of Drivers for Highway Safety, a local transportation group that has been critical of carpool lanes and light rail systems.

CenterLine opponents launched an initiative effort Wednesday to let Irvine voters decide whether they want light rail in their city. If the drive is successful, the initiative could appear on the February ballot and--if approved--would revise Irvine’s general plan by eliminating the possibility of building rail lines through residential areas. It would further require the Irvine City Council to retract its support for CenterLine.

“Protecting our neighborhoods must be our first priority,” said Bill Mavity, an antirail activist and Woodbridge Village Assn. board member. “I have seen OCTA try to sell, sell, sell the CenterLine, and it reminds me of a kid in a candy store with a pocketful of change. Let’s vote before we spend.”

Spitzer said OCTA and Irvine officials are concerned about the potential effect of CenterLine on neighborhoods. They have ordered a study comparing traditional light rail with a monorail system, which would be elevated, have a narrower right of way and intrude less into residential areas.