Records for Home Sales Still Falling

The breakneck pace of Ventura County home sales continued last month, as low mortgage rates and a meager stock of available houses pushed prices to record levels again. But some agents say they see signs that a yearlong boom is slowing a bit.

April sales of houses and condos were up nearly 25% compared with the previous April, reaching the highest level for the month since 1988. And prices were up $62,000 on a typical house from April 2001, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

The median price of a local home has now risen 70%, or $130,000, to $317,000 since the local real estate market bottomed out in 1995. The median is the point at which half the homes sell for more and half for less.

“There’s clearly another surge,” DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said, “and the sales counts would be higher if there were more homes on the market.”

The rise in prices and sales is evenly distributed across the full range of homes, Karevoll said. “It’s the same for entry-level, move-up and prestige homes,” he said. “They’re all doing quite well.”

Countywide, the median home price jumped for the third straight month and is up $33,000 this year alone. Sales were down slightly last month but still reached 1,556, more than twice as high as 1995 and far more than in any April since the 1,574 sales recorded for the month in 1988.

DataQuick’s figures show escrows completed on deals struck 30 to 60 days earlier. Buyers are still lining up with multiple offers, some exceeding even top-dollar asking prices. And the demand still outstrips supply to such a degree that prices are climbing steadily.

“The trend is still moving up,” said Peter Greer of Thousand Oaks, president-elect of the Conejo Valley Assn. of Realtors. “The buyers are still coming, and the sellers are still holding out for higher prices and getting them with very few concessions.”

About 1,000 houses are for sale in the Conejo Valley, from Newbury Park to Agoura, Greer said. That is about a two-month supply, he said, and far short of what is needed for a healthy balance between supply and demand.

In the west county, however, agents say they see slight movement toward a normal market.

For example, 536 homes and condos were for sale Thursday, up from 465 last month in the six cities represented by the Ventura County Coastal Assn. of Realtors.

“It’s still a very strong market,” said broker Elaine Pettersen, immediate past president of the coastal association. “But according to the title companies, this month has been slower. We’re having a lot of closings because of the very aggressive activity in the last two months. But sales are down this month, partly because of a shortage of homes for sale.”

Karen Campbell, the west county association’s president, said she has heard the same thing.

“The problem is that we’re pricing people out of the market,” she said. “They can afford $350,000, but they can’t afford $400,000. Our economy can’t support these [continued] increases.”

Indeed, completed escrows were down 3.6% from March to April, DataQuick reported. But Diana Gleason, a home loan executive at Washington Mutual in Ventura, said she sees no slowing at all. “We’re up considerably on new-purchase applications this month,” she said. “We have a lot of people who are pre-approved for a loan but just can’t find a house.”

Greer, at a Realtors conference in Washington, said agents from around the country are talking about the same trends: high sales, rising prices and a housing shortage because the U.S. population increased 13% in the 1990s while home construction rose just 10%.

“So we’re facing the same shortage nationwide, and a lack of affordable housing,” Greer said.

While there are hints of a break in the market’s upward spiral, Karevoll said he doesn’t expect any until fall, at the earliest.

“I wouldn’t read too much into last month’s decline,” he said. “We’re still seeing the best market we’ve had for 14 years, and prices are reaching peaks every month.”

The only real damper on the market is the lack of homes for sale, Karevoll said. Interest rates, which moved upward in the first months of the year, have settled down to a low 6.6% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, he said.

“But there is a point of equilibrium out there,” he said. “As more sellers enter the market, things will loosen up. And as prices and interest rates combine to make it so buyers can’t afford to buy, things will balance out.”

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*--* April Home Sales 1988-2002 Year Sales Median Price 1988 1,574 $179,000 1989 1,351 $228,000 1990 856 $228,000 1991 808 $211,000 1992 788 $202,000 1993 866 $206,000 1994 998 $193,000 1995 653 $187,000 1996 962 $190,000 1997 974 $203,000 1998 1,238 $207,000 1999 1,448 $237,000 2000 1,244 $256,000 2001 1,246 $255,000 2002 1,556 $317,000 Source: DataQuick Information Systems

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*--* Breakdown by ZIP Code April 2001 April 2002 City ZIP Code Sales Median Price Sales Median Price Camarillo 93010 57 $278,000 75 $313,500 Camarillo 93012 75 $280,250 93 $345,000 Fillmore 93015 27 $193,000 17 $212,000 Moorpark 93021 61 $283,500 93 $358,250 Oak Park 91377 31 $417,750 44 $389,500 Oak View 93022 14 $236,250 13 $309,000 Ojai 93023 25 $320,400 40 $311,750 Oxnard 93030 67 $210,000 100 $255,500 Oxnard 93033 70 $189,000 79 $178,000 Oxnard 93035 46 $258,000 67 $307,750 Port Hueneme 93041 49 $172,500 36 $224,000 Santa Paula 93060 25 $223,000 28 $240,000 Simi Valley 93063 115 $255,500 132 $283,500 Simi Valley 93065 137 $273,000 167 $310,000 Thousand Oaks 91320 89 $354,000 121 $406,500 Thousand Oaks 91360 57 $260,000 84 $329,000 Thousand Oaks 91361 16 $370,000 37 $520,250 Thousand Oaks 91362 80 $381,500 102 $430,000 Ventura 93001 65 $258,000 51 $320,000 Ventura 93003 69 $260,000 103 $290,000 Ventura 93004 25 $275,000 37 $330,000 Countywide 1,246 $255,000 1,556 $317,000

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Source: DataQuick Information Systems