Democrats Revive Reliable Campaign Issue: Social Security

WASHINGTON —  The war on terrorism has cleared the political landscape of many issues Democrats like to campaign on. Medicare, managed health care, even education seem eclipsed by concerns about war and security as the 2002 campaign heats up.

But one hardy perennial that could give Democrats a political boost is reappearing: Social Security.

The issue has come barreling to the forefront as the collapse of Enron Corp. has fueled concerns about private retirement programs, and the bearish market has raised new questions about GOP proposals to let workers invest some of their payroll taxes in stocks.

Predictably, Democrats want to seize the opportunity to make the election year case that GOP policies undermine the federal retirement system. What’s more surprising is that some Republicans are helping them turn attention to the issue.

Although most GOP politicians have tried to sidestep the issue, Bush, in a speech today, is expected to spotlight his proposals to safeguard retirement programs. And on Wednesday, House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas) mounted a full-court press to urge fellow Republicans to renew the push to partially privatize Social Security.

“This is not a task for the timid,” Armey said in a speech to a conservative Washington think tank. “We can choose to be the party of benign neglect or the party of bold change.”

After Armey’s speech, a group of conservative House Republicans circulated a letter commending him for attempting to reignite a debate on Social Security.

But other Republicans cringe. GOP political operatives and vulnerable incumbents fear that any Social Security initiative will needlessly invite a political onslaught from Democrats on an issue the party needs to handle more gingerly.

“This issue is a land mine,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-Va.), chairman of the National Congressional Campaign Committee.

Issue Has Been a Winner for Democrats

From the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal through the 1980s, Democrats often made significant political gains by portraying Republicans as hostile to Social Security. The issue clearly contributed to big Democratic gains in the House in 1982 and helped the party regain control of the Senate in 1986.

The issue lessened in prominence in the 1990s as Republicans became more cautious about proposing changes in Social Security and more aggressive about expressing their support for the program. As federal budget deficits gave way to surpluses in the late 1990s, many Republicans joined Democrats in embracing the so-called “lockbox” policy--breaking the federal government of its habit of using Social Security trust funds for other programs.

That helped neutralize the issue for GOP candidates in the 2000 elections, even as then-candidate Bush made a major issue of his plan to shore up the retirement program by offering a private-investment option. He argued that such a change would be needed to ensure Social Security’s solvency as the baby boom generation begins to retire in large numbers in about 10 years.

Since taking office, however, Bush has done little to advance his plan beyond appointing a commission to study the issue. And the return of budget deficits--caused by an economic recession and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks--seemed to undercut whatever momentum the privatization plan might have.

That’s why Democrats were practically gleeful at Armey’s invitation to reopen a debate on Social Security.

“It opens up an opportunity to distinguish between the parties in terms of who we represent and who they represent,” said Rep. Robert T. Matsui (D-Sacramento).

Added Michael Meehan, a top political advisor with the Democratic National Committee: “Clearly, it’s one of the top election year issues that will favor Democrats.”

War Leaves Democrats With Fewer Hot Issues

Republicans argue that Democrats are seizing on Social Security because they are bereft of other significant campaign issues. The Democrats’ quandary: Bush has earned high marks as a leader in responding to the Sept. 11 attacks. The economy appears on the rebound. Democrats have rallied behind the war effort. And while many in the party disagree with the administration’s fiscal policy, they are loathe to propose repealing the Bush tax cut enacted last year.

“They don’t have a platform, so they are going to try to scare seniors,” Davis said.

But at the same time, many Republicans remain concerned about the potential clout of the Social Security issue.

“My 20-year perspective is that we don’t have a happy history of talking about significant changes in Social Security during off-year elections,” said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster.

He said the issue is especially risky for the GOP in midterm elections because elderly voters--who tend to care the most about retirement programs--make up a disproportionate share of the electorate. “All off-year elections are about three things: the economy, presidential job approval and seniors,” McInturff said.

To counter claims that GOP plans for reforming Social Security would cut payments to retirees, Armey and other conservative Republicans have proposed a bill that would send out certificates that “guarantee” the benefits would never be reduced.

The certificates, however, merely express a political pledge; they would carry no legal standing. When the idea was discussed this week among GOP leaders, many resisted it as an empty political gesture. Some warned that rather than accomplish the aim of reassuring voters, the certificates would needlessly invite Democratic attacks.

“It’s raising the profile of the issue in a year where we’re not going to be dealing with it,” said a member of the House GOP leadership who asked not to be named.

Indeed, the idea already is being ridiculed by Democrats, who say it is a gimmick to deflect attention from the recurrence of a budget deficit that is causing the government once again to dip into Social Security surpluses to pay for other programs.

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) called the certificate plan a “ridiculous stunt.” He said it “only confirms what we already know--[Republicans] are raiding Social Security and they are nervous about it.”

Armey argues that Democratic defenders of the status quo in Social Security could suffer a political backlash--especially among younger voters who are increasingly skeptical that the program will survive to help them in their retirement.

“Republicans have nothing to fear when discussing prospects for reforming Social Security,” Armey said in a memo to GOP colleagues earlier this month. “Americans are anxious to hear each party’s ideas for fixing the system.”