Invasion Politics: Timing Counts

Saddam Hussein can chill. The United States is not going to invade his country--at least not for a while.

Not because no one was convinced by the argument that an invasion was justified merely by his being evil. And not because a number of Republican luminaries have joined those divisive Democrats in pointing out the risks of acting alone and the implications for regional stability.

An attack won’t happen soon because of the dynamics of presidential popularity.

Over the course of a president’s time in office, approval ratings almost always decline. (The only recent exception has been Bill Clinton, whose last three months recorded the highest end-of-term approval ratings of any modern president.)

Military action brings a surge in presidential popularity, but it is always short-lived. Therefore in politics, as in comedy--a related art form--timing is everything.

President Bush’s father learned this the hard way. After we went to war with Iraq, almost 90% of those polled felt good about his performance.

A year later, those with a negative opinion equaled those with a positive one. And by the election 11 months after that, Bush the 41st was only in the high 30s and lost to Clinton.

One of the reasons cited for the drop in approval of the elder Bush was he seemed clueless about the economy.

The current President Bush interrupted his monthlong vacation so he could demonstrate at the Waco economic meeting that he was not following in his father’s economic footsteps.

The Democrats unfairly labeled the event an infomercial. Unfair because it was an insult to infomercials, which at least have some content, unlike the Potemkin political theater of Waco.

Compounding the president’s economic hardships is the changing perception of his administration. Initially it seemed to be made up of sure-footed MBAs and confident CEOs, but increasingly it appears run by poster boys for crony capitalism and corporate corruption.

Unless a majority of Americans can be convinced that President Bush understands and cares about their economic situation, only a new foreign military adventure will give a sufficient boost to the sagging popularity percentages. Afghanistan will be long past its prime even if there are any Americans still doing the dreaded nation-building.

And Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft’s exhortations to look under your bed for terrorists won’t be enough to scare the voters into accepting a second term.

Since the surge derived from military action will dissipate within a year, Saddam Hussein had better start worrying about an invasion at the end of next year, when the election of 2004 is less than 12 months out.

But dictators are far cleverer than presidents at preserving themselves in power. Hussein might just roll out the red carpet for the U.N. inspectors and let them search anywhere they want for his weapons of mass destruction. With the inspectors on the ground doing their job, the Bush administration would be left without a dog to wag.

If that happens, a new enemy will have to be found quickly. Ideally it would be one that could provide an easy, casualty-free victory and shore up Bush’s political base at the same time. Since the far right never liked giving it up, maybe the president could invade Panama to take back the canal.