Not Too Soon to Plant a Seed

March is creeping up on us. It’s almost that time of year when teams from the West go in and out like lambs.

Since UCLA’s reign of dominance ended in 1975, only three men’s basketball teams from Western states have won the NCAA championship: Nevada Las Vegas in 1990, UCLA in 1995 and Arizona in 1997. Three in 25 years.

Five times since 1993 the West has not been able to earn a No. 1 seeding in its home region for the NCAA tournament.

Because schools, conferences and entire geographic areas are now defined strictly by their performance in the tournament, we’re about to see who can represent the West.

Right now that puts the burden entirely on Stanford. Championships have come to be almost exclusively the province of teams that rank among the NCAA’s elite throughout the season, and Stanford is the only Western team that fits the category.

Of the past 11 championships, eight have been won by teams seeded No. 1 and two by those seeded No. 2. In other words, don’t waste too much time searching for that fairy-tale story because it probably won’t be written.

Stanford is in line for the No. 1 seeding in the West. North Carolina and Duke are in a battle for the top seeding in the East. Michigan State, Illinois and Kansas could fight to stay in the Midwest, while one of those schools could take the No. 1 seeding in the South.

Fortunately the politics of football are long behind us, and we can celebrate the sport of basketball. If this were the bowl championship series, Stanford wouldn’t get the fair shake. Duke spends more time on national television than Tom Brokaw, and all of those televised blowouts would surely woo the poll voters. And the Blue Devils have a higher strength of schedule, so the computers would like them too.

Fortunately in the world of hoops these matters are settled on the court. For a change, Stanford has enough athletic ability to compete with anyone in the country. This current Cardinal crop is even better than the crew that went to the Final Four in 1998 and won the Pacific 10 championship in 1999. That group (with Mark Madsen, Tim Young and Peter Sauer up front, and Arthur Lee and Kris Weems in the backcourt) was capable of playing against anyone in the country, but also vulnerable to weaker teams. They had to play their best every game, no matter who the opponent.

This season’s squad can get away with an off night and still escape with victory. That comes in handy during the tournament, when advancing is much more important than the manner in which you do it.

Casey Jacobsen can knock down jumpers against zones and get off his shot against any man-to-man defense. The Collins twins wear down opposing front lines. Michael McDonald is fine at the all-important point guard position (and I’ve always liked that song “I Keep Forgetting”).

The Cardinal already demonstrated it can go head-to-head with the best by beating Duke in December. It helped tremendously that the game was in the Bay Area, but some of the skill and effort would translate to a neutral site.

Stanford can’t be considered a complete failure if it doesn’t win a national championship, but the Cardinal needs to make it to the Final Four. Or some Pacific 10 school needs to, and as much as Arizona has the potential to make a run it might be too late for the Wildcats to get it all together.

Stanford is No. 2 in the Ratings Percentage Index, just behind North Carolina and ahead of Duke.

UCLA is eighth. Oh, those Bruins. They could develop into the story of the tournament. The deeper they go, the harder they make it for Pete Dalis to fire Steve Lavin.

Even though they are on the fringes of the top 25, they could get a higher-than-expected seeding. There’s that high RPI ranking, which is boosted by the nation’s second-toughest schedule. There’s that super-impressive victory at Stanford. And they still have those four magic letters on the front of their uniforms.

Some school needs to carry the cause for the West’s flagship conference. Already two tournaments have entered the books since Stanford made the Pac-10’s last trip to the Final Four in 1998.

Do you want to know one reason it’s hard to argue with those who say the Atlantic Coast Conference is the best for hoops? The ACC has not been shut out of the Final Four in back-to-back seasons since 1979 and 1980.

UCLA or Arizona could break through for the Pac-10 this season. But consistency and an ability to withstand off-games are what you look for when handicapping the NCAA tournament, and for those reasons Stanford looks like the only team capable of taking the extra step and winning a championship.

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J.A. Adande can be reached at his e-mail address: [email protected]