Economy’s Woes Hit Home

Ventura County residents are less satisfied with the economy, their job prospects, housing prices and their overall quality of life than a year ago, according to a new survey on consumer confidence.

But despite dampened spirits, the county of 753,000 residents is weathering recession-related anxieties far better than the nation as a whole, according to the survey by the Economic Research Center at Cal Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks.

Nationally, the Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped from nearly 108 a year ago to 84 last month. In Ventura County, however, the figure was down only slightly, from 102 to 98, Cal Lutheran researchers reported.

The index, created by the University of Michigan, generates a numerical value for consumer attitudes about the economy, with 100 representing the base attitude in 1986.

The findings in the Economic Research Center’s second annual consumer confidence report were based on a random sample of 800 adults countywide between Nov. 25 and Dec. 5.

Those surveyed also indicated that the Sept. 11 attacks would have an insignificant effect on the county’s economy in the long run. Their concerns were driven primarily by the national recession and by unrelated local factors, such as population growth and a tight housing market.

Fifty-one percent of those surveyed said the terrorist attacks on the East Coast would have no effect on their plans to buy big-ticket items such as cars or houses.

And while only 40% of consumers surveyed expect the economy to bounce back during the next 12 months, 72% said they are confident it will improve over the next five years.

“The old-fashioned American optimism is still there,” said Ali Akbari, director of the research center and a Cal Lutheran economics professor. “In the long run, an overwhelming majority of people, even those saying, ‘I am worse off,’ expect the situation to improve.”

Other survey highlights:

* Only 7.1% of consumers described the county’s economy as “excellent,” compared with 15.3% a year ago. Still, 85% said they were either satisfied or extremely satisfied with the county’s overall economy. At the same time, 17% predicted that the economy would deteriorate over the next year; only half that many predicted the same a year ago.

* Those reporting they were worse off financially than the previous year doubled, from 11.8% in 2000 to 23.2% this year.

* Those dissatisfied with job opportunities jumped from 13.8% a year ago to 26.4%.

* Asked whether the county’s housing stock was affordable, 65% said no, up from 59% a year ago.

* While 40% still see quality of life in the county as improving, 17.3% said they believe it is getting worse.

* About half of those surveyed said their predictions about the local economy are colored by the performance of the stock market.

Bill Watkins, director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast, said the Cal Lutheran study is in line with his perception of the county. “Things aren’t as good as they were last year, because last year was spectacular,” Watkins said. “But they’re better than nationally.”

Unemployment among county residents rose to 5.3% last month, from 4.9% a month before. But most of those workers were commuters who lost jobs based in Los Angeles County.

In Ventura County, the number of new jobs actually grew by 400. Analysts say Ventura County’s public-sector and agricultural jobs remain solid, and its technology sector leans heavily toward biotechnology, which has been resilient.

While the survey didn’t address consumers’ smaller-ticket purchases, the manager of one major mall has been pleasantly surprised. Sales are 3% stronger this holiday season than last year at The Oaks shopping center in Thousand Oaks, said General Manager Rebecca Bresson.

“From our perspective, our shoppers appear to be quite confident,” she said. “We’re perhaps better insulated against some of these economic stresses and strains.”