Ready or Not, the Candidates Are Coming at Warp Speed

In this age of instant communication, one-hour photo developing and overnight package delivery, what could be more suited than the warp-speed presidential campaign, guaranteed to deliver a pair of White House nominees in record time--ready or not.

If the polls are right, most voters aren’t ready; they’ve only barely started paying attention. No matter. Practically speaking, the nominations could conceivably be decided less than a month from now.

Blame the “front-loading” phenomenon. Big states like California grew tired of playing fifth- or sixth-fiddle to pint-sized powers like Iowa and New Hampshire. So they pushed their primaries up as close as possible to those early contests. That, in turn, prompted Iowa and New Hampshire to advance their dates to gain more breathing room.

The upshot: a primary process that starts earlier and moves quicker than any in history.

Blink and you may miss it. Front-runners Al Gore and George W. Bush could wrap things up quickly with a pair of one-two knockouts in Iowa and New Hampshire. Although that seems unlikely, the possibility underscores how compacted the primary calendar has become.

A guide to key steps along the way:

Jan. 24: Iowa

Voters in Iowa will cast the first meaningful ballots of the campaign in 2,142 small meetings, or caucuses, across the state. The results have little bearing on who wins Iowa’s delegates to the national nominating conventions. But, at this stage, the delegate count is secondary to the public attention lavished on the winner.

The caucuses are quirky: People have to stand up in front of friends and neighbors to state--and sometimes defend--their candidate of choice. And candidate supporters must, in effect, meet a quorum at each gathering or find someone else to support.

Although former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley has virtually conceded victory in Iowa to his Democratic rival, Vice President Gore, all he really needs is a strong showing as he heads into New Hampshire. On the Republican side, Texas Gov. Bush is a solid front-runner, but publisher Steve Forbes has spent heavily to build an operation he hopes will pay off. Arizona Sen. John McCain has taken a pass, husbanding his resources for elsewhere.

Feb. 1: New Hampshire

The first primary will be especially critical for Bradley and McCain, who hope that victory here will catapult them into the next contests and raise serious doubts about the viability of Bush and Gore.

Feb. 19: South Carolina

McCain hopes to build on a victory in New Hampshire with a sweep of this first Southern primary, deflating Bush’s aura of inevitability. A loss for McCain would likely prove politically fatal.

Feb. 22: Arizona, Michigan

Bush could finish off McCain with a victory in the senator’s home state, where much of the GOP establishment is backing the Texas governor. McCain hopes that an Arizona win and a respectable showing in Michigan can propel him into California and the rest of the states that vote two weeks later. Forbes won Arizona four years ago, and his bottomless budget makes him the GOP wild card.

March 7: California, N.Y., et al.

Big casino. On a single day, fully 34% of the “pledged” delegates will be selected for the two parties. (This doesn’t include 800 “super,” or unpledged, delegates who will attend the Democratic National Convention.) The key battlegrounds are California and New York, but important states like Ohio, Missouri and Georgia will also vote. A Bush victory in California could effectively clinch the GOP nomination. For the Democrats, the picture is murkier. A New York-California sweep by Gore could scotch Bradley’s candidacy. A Bradley sweep would seriously damage the vice president’s prospects. A split verdict means both would likely survive to carry on.

March 14: Florida, Texas

The winner of the GOP nomination should be clear after these contests. On the Democratic side, Gore gains the upper hand as the nominating fight moves to his native South. But Bradley could keep his hopes alive by cherry-picking Texas and Florida. If the result of the Democratic contest is still unclear, the outcome is still up in the air.

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Primary Primer

Winning the Republican or Democratic presidential nomination is a complicated process. Some states hold primaries, others caucuses. Sometimes it’s winner take all. Sometimes delegates are divvied up proportionally. A few caucuses are even spread over two days. In some states, any registered voter may cast a ballot. Elsewhere, only party members may vote. But the aim is to secure enough delegates to win the nomination.

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*Denotes caucuses

Source: Democratic and Republican national committees; researched by MASSIE RITSCH / Los Angeles Times