Dose of Reality for North Korea

North Korea says it will send a delegation to a March 5 briefing in New York on details of an American-devised plan for talks among officials of the United States, China and the two Koreas, the main combatants in the Korean War. The aim of the talks would be to formally end the conflict, halted by an armistice in 1953, and to secure greater stability on the divided Korean peninsula. Pyongyang’s readiness to listen to the American proposal--it has committed itself to nothing beyond that--could signal an important pragmatic shift in its isolationist and confrontational policies. The trouble is it has twice before said it would attend such a briefing, only to cancel both times.

This time it may be genuinely interested in exploring a relaxation of tensions because it realistically has no choice. The North Korean regime now faces the greatest threat to its survival in nearly half a century. Successive crop failures and growing malnutrition have forced Pyongyang to plead for outside help, with only a fraction of its food shortfall met so far. Some analysts believe an internal argument over whether to open its long-sealed society to outside aid and scrutiny has set off a power struggle in the ruling Communist hierarchy.

The defection of Hwang Jang Yop, one of the regime’s leading ideologists, has been followed by major changes at the top that are hardly coincidental. Within the space of a few days, Pyongyang announced the death of its defense minister and the retirement, because of “ill health,” of its prime minister. Signs are appearing that younger men loyal to Kim Jong Il are replacing the Korean War generation of officials put in place by the late Kim Il Sung.

Any turn toward moderation by the north is something for Washington to welcome, and to exploit. There are still no clear signs that Pyongyang is ready to engage in realistic diplomacy with South Korea. That is something Washington must insist upon as an earnest of North Korea’s intentions to live in peace with its neighbor. It should also tie U.S. help in organizing humanitarian aid efforts to an easing of the north’s military buildup along the demilitarized zone. The scheduled March 5 briefing, if North Korea shows up, will be a test of Pyongyang’s intentions about charting a new course in its international relations. The unambiguous message from Washington should be that a new course will bring benefits but continued recalcitrance will produce no rewards.