Battle’s Prize: Upper Hand in Assembly

SACRAMENTO —  Across the state this autumn weekend, an army of campaign workers is knocking on doors to coax likely voters to the polls for Tuesday’s election, which has turned into a referendum on whether control of the Legislature should remain divided between the two major parties.

Nowhere in Southern California is the struggle to get out the vote more heated than in two clusters in Los Angeles County: one that stretches from the heart of the film industry in the San Fernando Valley eastward to Pasadena, and a second anchored in the Long Beach-South Bay area.

With all 80 Assembly and 20 of the Senate’s 40 seats up for grabs, voters are being offered a wide variety of down-ticket choices.

The outcome will determine who choreographs the legislative agenda on such high-profile issues as taxes, crime, smoking, guns and education.

Although Democrats are expected to retain their advantage in the state Senate, the race to control the Assembly--controlled by Republicans for the first time in a quarter century--looks like it will be a photo finish as candidates scramble down the home stretch.

Millions of dollars are being poured into direct mailers, TV commercials and lawn signs in an eleventh-hour spending spree to influence the outcome. Democrats say GOP expenditures reflect an Oktoberfest of campaign financing.

“It takes a lot of chutzpah to make a characterization like that,” said Republican Sen. Ross Johnson of Irvine, citing millions amassed by Senate President Pro Tem Bill Lockyer (D-Hayward). “Given the fact that [Senate] Republicans will be dramatically outspent, we feel good about being in the hunt,” Johnson said. “But it’s going to come right down to the wire in some of those races.”

Democrats say the political winds are blowing in their direction with Bill Clinton at the top of their ticket.

“I’d rather be a Democrat than a Republican this fall,” said Lockyer, who has been out walking precincts and is mobilizing Capitol staffers to hit the streets on the eve of the election.

“We see a modest tidal action of opinion toward Democratic values and candidates. It’s not a tsunami but there is a consistent trend,” Lockyer said.

That view was echoed by Assembly Democrats.

“We have a pretty good shot at regaining the majority,” said veteran political consultant Darry Sragow, who is overseeing Assembly Democratic campaigns. “It’s a year we’re swimming with the current as opposed to it. The president is substantially ahead. Californians are feeling pretty good about things in general.”

John Nelson, Republican Assembly Speaker Curt Pringle’s press secretary, said the Democrats are finding that recapturing the lower house is a much more Herculean task than they anticipated.

Although Nelson is upbeat about Pringle’s chances to keep his hold on power, he acknowledged that races in several swing districts have tightened.

Tony Quinn, a former Assembly GOP aide who helps publish a nonpartisan election guide, said “we would give Republicans the nod at coming back with 41 seats.”

Quinn said several Los Angeles-area contests are too close to call so “if it turns out to be a Democratic year [on the] down-ticket, Democrats could pick up those.”

If there’s anything like a sure bet in this tumultuous election year, it’s the legislative races in Republican-rich Orange County.

The GOP is expected to cruise to easy victories in every race. The only real contest was expected in the 69th Assembly District, where GOP incumbent Jim Morrissey (R-Santa Ana) faces Democrat challenger Lou Correa. But insiders say polls have Morrissey up by a double-digit margin.

Now, the partisan lineup in the Assembly is 41 Republicans, 36 Democrats, one Reform Party member and two vacancies in seats historically held by Democrats.

In the 40-member Senate, half the seats are at stake. The makeup is now 22 Democrats, 16 Republicans and two independents who often side with Democrats.

A variety of interests are seeking to influence the outcome, from organized labor and Latino lawmakers hoping to boost their numbers to the California Republican Party and Gov. Pete Wilson seeking to preserve the GOP majority in the Assembly.

As part of a coordinated GOP strategy, Wilson pledged $800,000 to legislative races, mirroring Republican priorities.

Wilson, whose staff has urged administration appointees to join the campaign trail, gave $45,000 to Assemblywoman Paula Boland (R-Granada Hills), who finds herself locked in what one Republican characterized as “World War III in the trenches” against Democrat Adam Schiff, a Burbank attorney, for what historically has been bedrock GOP terrain.

They are competing for the 21st Senate District seat being vacated by Glendale Republican Newton R. Russell, who is prohibited by term limits from seeking reelection. Also on the ballot is Libertarian Bob New.

As a way to maximize their money, both Republicans and Democrats are seeking to target their efforts in districts such as Russell’s that overlap competitive Assembly seats. Inside the 21st Senate District, for example, are two hotly contested Assembly seats.

One of them is the 43rd Assembly District, where Republican businessman John Geranios is opposed by Democrat Scott Wildman, a teacher, in a tougher than expected battle for the seat that has been held by Assemblyman James E. Rogan (R-Glendale), who is running for Congress. Also on the ballot is Libertarian Willard Michlin.

Next door in the 44th District, staunch conservative Assemblyman William Hoge (R-Pasadena) is locked in a neck-and-neck battle against Democratic challenger Jack Scott, former president of Pasadena City College. Also running here is Libertarian Ted Brown. Both parties rate the race between Hoge and Scott as a tossup.

Likewise, in the South Bay, two-term Assemblywoman Debra Bowen (D-Marina del Rey) finds herself fighting for her political life in District 53.

Bowen, who recently received $50,000 in support from the California Democratic Party, is facing a strong challenge from Republican Dan Walker, a Torrance city councilman. Bowen is a top target of the GOP. Wilson recently reported giving $57,000 to Walker.

In the adjoining 54th Assembly District, incumbent freshman Steve Kuykendall (R-Rancho Palos Verdes) is squaring off against Democrat Gerrie Schipske, an educator and nurse. Kuykendall won narrowly two years ago in the Republican landslide and is seeking reelection in an area expected to strongly favor President Clinton.

Kuykendall’s seat abuts the 56th Assembly District currently represented by Republican Phil Hawkins of Bellflower, who is seeking to move up to the Senate. Republican Richard Lambros, a Bellflower businessman, is facing a long-shot challenge from Democrat Sally M. Havice, an English professor. Also running in the 56th is Libertarian Arthur M. Hayes, a certified professional parliamentarian.

The Assembly districts represented by Hawkins and Kuykendall make up the 27th Senate District now served by veteran Sen. Robert Beverly (R-Long Beach), who is retiring because of term limits. Beverly narrowly won reelection four years ago against an unknown Democrat.

Now, Hawkins is facing former Assemblywoman Betty Karnette (D-Long Beach), who in 1994 was upset by Kuykendall for an Assembly seat. Karnette, a teacher, has strong backing from organized labor. The race is considered a tossup.

In two Los Angeles County Assembly districts, former lawmakers are favored in their comeback bids:

* Tom McClintock, who served for a decade as a Republican lawmaker before making an unsuccessful run for Congress in 1992, is seeking the 38th District seat that straddles the San Fernando and Simi valleys. He is opposed by Democrat Jon M. Lauritzen, a Chatsworth teacher, and Virginia F. Neuman, a Fillmore artist who is the nominee of the Natural Law Party.

* Richard E. Floyd of Wilmington, a longtime South Bay Democrat who lost a reelection bid in 1992 to Juanita Millender-McDonald, is seeking the 55th Assembly District seat that has been vacant since McDonald’s recent election to Congress. Floyd is opposed by Republican businessman Ronald Hayes of Long Beach.

Among the 12 Los Angeles County Assembly delegation incumbents given the edge are:

* First-term Democrat Sheila Kuehl of Santa Monica, who is facing four challengers in the 41st District, which straddles the Westside and the San Fernando Valley. They are Republican businessman Mark Boos Benhard of Calabasas, Libertarian businessman Phil Baron of Tarzana, Peace and Freedom Party teacher John Honigsfeld of Malibu and Natural Law Party nominee Marya Small, a Santa Monica actress.

* Freshman Democrat Wally Knox of Los Angeles, who is squaring off against three candidates in the Westside’s 42nd District. His opponents are Republican Adam Ross, a small-business owner from West Hollywood; Libertarian Eric Michael Fine of Beverly Hills, a business consultant, and Herbert Paul, a Beverly Hills tile contractor who is the Natural Law Party nominee.

* Antonio Villaraigosa, a first-term Democrat from Los Angeles, who is seeking reelection in the 45th District, which includes parts of Chinatown and Los Angeles’ Eastside. He is facing J. Luis Gomez of Los Angeles, an educator who is the Peace and Freedom Party nominee. There is no Republican in this race.

* Louis Caldera (D-Los Angeles), who is running for reelection in the 46th District, which includes downtown Los Angeles. His opponent is Los Angeles Republican Andrew Kim, an attorney.

* Kevin Murray (D-Los Angeles), who is seeking a second term in the Crenshaw-anchored 47th District against Republican Jonathan Leonard of Los Angeles, a fire commissioner and businessman, and Libertarian Bob Weber of Culver City, a motion picture technologist.

* Diane Martinez (D-Rosemead), who is seeking a second term. She is being challenged by Republican Jay T. Imperial, a Rosemead City Council member, in the San Gabriel Valley’s 49th District.

* Democrat Martha M. Escutia of Huntington Park. She is seeking a second term in the 50th District that includes parts of East Los Angeles. She is opposed by Republican Gladys Miller, a local government employee from Bell Gardens.

* Martin Gallegos (D-El Monte), who is running for a second term in the San Gabriel Valley’s 57th District against Republican businessman Jim Kleinpell of Hacienda Heights.

* Democrat Grace Napolitano of Norwalk. She is seeking a third term in the 58th District, which covers parts of southeast Los Angeles County. Her opponents are Republican businessman Albert J. Nunez of Whittier and Libertarian high school teacher John P. Mc Cready of Whittier.

* Republican Bob Margett of Arcadia. Margett won a special election in 1995 and is seeking another term in the San Gabriel Valley’s 59th District against Democrat Brent A. Decker, a deputy county assessor from Monrovia.

* Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar), who also was elected in a special election in 1995. He is running for a second term against Democrat Susan Amaya, a Walnut teacher, in the San Gabriel Valley’s 60th District.

* Fred Aguiar, a two-term Republican from Chino. Aguiar is seeking reelection in the 61st Assembly District. The San Bernardino County-based district includes a portion of Pomona in Los Angeles County. Opposing Aguiar are Paul Vincent Avila, a Democrat from Ontario who serves on the governing board of the Ontario-Montclair School District, and Michael Alan Piltch, a Libertarian from Pomona who is a bookkeeper.

The open Assembly seats in Los Angeles County include:

* In the Antelope Valley’s 36th District, Republican George Runner, the mayor of Lancaster, is opposed by Democrat David Cochran, an employee relations representative from Santa Clarita.

* The San Fernando Valley’s 39th District, where Democrat Tony Cardenas, a businessman from Mission Hills, is facing Republican Ollie M. Mc Caulley, a businessman from Sun Valley.

* The San Fernando Valley’s 40th District, where Republican H.R. Culver, a businessman from Van Nuys, is facing Democrat Bob Hertzberg, a Sherman Oaks attorney; Libertarian Kelley L. Ross, a college philosophy instructor from Van Nuys, and David L. Cossak, a businessman from North Hollywood who is the Natural Law Party candidate.

* The 48th District in South-Central Los Angeles, where Democrat Rod Wright, a congressional aide, is the only candidate.

* The 51st District in Inglewood and South-Central Los Angeles, where Democrat Edward Vincent, mayor of Inglewood, is running against Republican Anthony Clarke, a bank manager from Los Angeles.

* The 52nd District, which covers parts of Compton and Los Angeles, Paramount and Gardena. The candidates are Democrat Carl Washington of Compton, an aide to a county supervisor and a minister, and Republican Robert Pullen-Miles, a business consultant from Gardena.

In the state Senate, the following four incumbents are expected to win reelection:

* Cathie Wright (R-Simi Valley) in the 19th District, which straddles the San Fernando Valley and parts of Ventura County. She is opposed by Democrat John Birke, a Northridge attorney.

* Tom Hayden (D-Los Angeles) in the 23rd District, which covers the Westside, Malibu and parts of the San Fernando Valley. Hayden is facing Scott Schreiber, a Republican businessman from West Hills; Charles T. Black, a Libertarian physician from Malibu; Shirley Rachel Isaacson, a Peace and Freedom candidate who is a school psychologist from Malibu, and Robert P. Swanson, a Natural Law candidate from Pacific Palisades who did not list an occupation with voting officials.

* Teresa P. Hughes (D-Los Angeles) in the 25th District, which covers South-Central Los Angeles. She is opposed by Republican Cliff McClain, a community development consultant from Los Angeles.

* Richard Mountjoy (R-Monrovia) in the San Gabriel Valley’s 29th District. He is opposed by Democrat Tommy Randle, a business consultant from San Dimas.

In the open 17th District, which encompasses the Antelope Valley and Santa Clarita, Assemblyman William J. (Pete) Knight (R-Palmdale) is given the edge against Democrat Steven A. Figueroa, a tax preparer from Victorville.

Times staff writer Carl Ingram contributed to this story.