Yugoslav Opposition Laments Invisibility

NOVI SAD, Yugoslavia —  From atop the steps outside the shiny, glass sports hall here, the big and boisterous opposition rally provided compelling television.

One by one, politicians hoping to wrest control of Yugoslavia from longtime leader Slobodan Milosevic mounted the stairs, denouncing the Serbian president as a despot and promising democracy and greater freedom if they are victorious in federal voting on Sunday.

The Klieg lights were blinding. The sound system was thunderous. Cameras rolled from start to finish. But few if any Yugoslavs saw the footage. The only television crews filming the rally were from abroad.

“We are not visible anywhere, we do not even appear on television,” Vesna Pesic, leader of the Civic Alliance of Serbia, one of the opposition parties, told the crowd. “So we need you to help us, to go out and get others who are not here to vote for our coalition.”

Parliamentary elections in the rump Yugoslavia, which comprises Serbia and Montenegro, are the first electoral test for Milosevic since he abandoned his wartime goals in neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina and became a central figure last year in the Dayton, Ohio, peace process.

But as demonstrated by the news blackout at the recent rally in this industrial city nestled in a crook of the Danube River, it is hard to run a winning democratic campaign in a country sorely lacking almost everything democratic.

With Milosevic so firmly controlling the airwaves in Yugoslavia, it is difficult to know from watching television that the three-party ruling coalition is facing a challenge, let alone one that could give the country its first parliamentary alternative since the dissolution of the former, Communist-era Yugoslav federation.

“We are just going everywhere in the country, because it is the only way for us to get our message across,” said Zoran Djindjic, the handsome leader of the opposition Democratic Party who has been frustrated in efforts to play to his telegenic strength.

Djindjic and other opposition leaders, nonetheless, have forged a fragile alliance that for the first time gives them a shot at loosening the stranglehold on power that Milosevic has exerted for the last nine years.

Although the weak Yugoslav parliament has little authority, it is widely regarded as crucial to Milosevic’s long-term ambitions while also providing a possible chink in his hitherto impenetrable armor.

Some of Sunday’s regional and local elections will also provide important testing grounds for the newly organized opposition in advance of next year’s all-important Serbian elections--as well as probe Milosevic’s tolerance for democratic dissent.

“Because of the heightened level of international interest in this region, if the opposition does well and [Milosevic] challenges them legally or extra-legally, it will call attention to the problems here,” said a Western diplomat in Belgrade, the Serbian and Yugoslav capital. “A lot of this is about appearances, which are very important here.”

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Recent independent opinion polls, which are not always reliable, show the four-party opposition alliance running ahead of Milosevic’s coalition of his Socialist Party, the Yugoslav Left and New Democracy. The polls also indicate that the main opposition leader, former Central Bank Gov. Dragoslav Avramovic, is more popular than Milosevic, though Avramovic mysteriously dropped out of the campaign early this month.

The opinion polls, while welcome, frustrate opposition leaders: Imagine, they ask, if we had a level playing field?

A study by the Institute for Social Sciences in Belgrade of news broadcasts during a sample week in September showed that coverage of the ruling coalition’s campaign was 15 times greater than that of the opposition, even excluding “news stories” about the coalition’s nonelection activities. And when the opposition does get television time, it is so splintered among four dozen competing parties that it has little impact.

“People are being given a choice between reality and television in this election,” said Stojan Cerovic, a political analyst for the independent Vreme magazine. “People who don’t go out much are for the regime. If you do go out, the opposition is everywhere.”

The problem of controlled news media is not new in Yugoslavia, but it has become a particular sore point in this campaign because Sunday’s election is seen as a make-or-break point for the opposition. Having lost the last three elections, the so-called democratic alternative to Milosevic is in danger of becoming irrelevant at a time when Milosevic may be at his most vulnerable.

What irks many opposition leaders is that Western countries, including the United States, have done nothing to put pressure on Milosevic to free up the airwaves for the elections. After years of encouraging the development of a democratic voice in Yugoslavia, the West seems to have backed off at the most critical moment, they charge.

“If the West really wanted a fair election here, they should have provided for an independent television channel,” said Vladeta Jankovic, vice president of the Democratic Party of Serbia, a member of Together, the opposition alliance. “Voters have lost faith that things can change. If it just happens once, it would be very, very important for democracy.”

At the root of the problem, Jankovic and others suspect, is a sudden bout of realpolitik in the international community following the end of the war in Bosnia. After years of vilifying Milosevic, Western leaders have opted for stability over genuine democracy in Yugoslavia, the opposition leaders say.

“The prevailing opinion is that the West wants Milosevic to stay where he is so long as he is capable of delivering on his Dayton promises,” Jankovic said. “After investing so much in Dayton, the sense is that it would be destabilizing to change now.”

Western officials acknowledge that Milosevic has been a key to securing and keeping the peace in Bosnia, but they deny any favoritism among Western governments in the elections. “Milosevic is a business partner of necessity, we are not talking about ideological soul mates here,” one diplomat said.

But some opposition leaders and independent analysts say Western diplomats in Belgrade have given signals during the campaign that indicate their preference lies with the status quo. The most striking example involved a recent visit by Richard Miles, the U.S. charge d’affaires, to a financially troubled state-owned company with close ties to Milosevic.

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In true fashion, Belgrade television exploited the trip to the iron works in Smederevo, beaming images of Miles touring the facility and quoting his favorable remarks. Only months ago, Belgrade analysts said, Western diplomats would never have made a public appearance that could be so easily manipulated.

“The ruling coalition is emphasizing predictability in this election, and Western diplomats are supporting that image by the way they are traveling around,” said Predrag Simic, director of the Institute for International Politics and Economics in Belgrade.

As a sign of the opposition’s loss of faith in its onetime Western supporters, speculation among Together coalition leaders about the sudden departure of Avramovic, who resigned after less than two weeks as their leader, has focused as much on Western embassies in Belgrade as on the Serbian presidential office.

Avramovic, who recently turned 77, is a folk hero in Yugoslavia for having tamed the country’s hyperinflation two years ago. The longtime World Bank official was dumped as Central Bank governor in the spring by Milosevic. His decision to join the opposition led to widespread speculation that the hopelessly divided anti-Milosevic camp had finally found a formula for electoral success.

In a terse resignation letter, Avramovic cited chronic health problems, though on the day before his departure he appeared, in full makeup, with other opposition leaders for a campaign photo shoot. Djindjic, who was in almost daily contact with Avramovic, said the former banker has gone into seclusion and does not return phone calls.

Rumors have circulated in Belgrade that Milosevic pressured Avramovic to step down after threatening to disclose embarrassing information about his personal finances. But there has also been conjecture that Avramovic was encouraged to step down by U.S. and West European officials who, the theory goes, feared he might prove too great a threat to Milosevic.

U.S. and European officials have denied any involvement in Avramovic’s decision, but some opposition politicians are incredulous. Avramovic is not talking.