Maybe It Just Wasn’t in the Cards

It doesn’t take a lot of analysis.

It doesn’t require a call to the bizarre Bill James or those eclectic folks at the Society for American Baseball Research.

It’s simple.

In a five-game series, would you prefer facing Todd Stottlemyre, Andy Benes and Donovan Osborne or John Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine?

It may not matter the way the Dodgers are hitting, but the answer seems obvious.

Who wants to face the Atlanta Braves in a first-round playoff and that October-tested troika of Smoltz, Maddux and Glavine, baseball’s best?

The Dodgers get that dubious honor after appearing on their way to St. Louis and a less intimidating engagement with Stottlemyre, Benes and Osborne.

They blew that and the championship of the National League West by losing their final four regular-season games at Dodger Stadium, including three in a row to the San Diego Padres, who prevailed in 11 innings Sunday, 2-0.

Considering the first-round matchups--Padres against Cardinals and wild-card Dodgers against Braves--the Sunday finale now seems more meaningful than meaningless.

Citing the difference in pitching between St. Louis and Atlanta, Brett Butler said:

“My choice was to play St. Louis, but I think we have a better chance to beat Atlanta in a five-game series than a seven-game series because you might not have to face those three guys [Smoltz, Maddux and Glavine] twice. I mean, that’s the only real positive I can put on it.”

Said Eric Karros: “We’ve been saying from the start that the road to the World Series goes through Atlanta, but we’ve gotten there a little sooner than we’d have liked.”

Rolling to the Eastern title and their fifth consecutive playoff appearance, the Braves have won 10 of their last 14 games after a brief slump in early September. Smoltz, Maddux, Glavine and No. 4 starter Denny Neagle, were 9-1 in those games. Left-hander Neagle, who suffered the loss, will move to the bullpen for the division series. Left-hander Steve Avery, hammered in his last two appearances after a two-month struggle with a pulled rib-cage muscle, may not make the playoff roster.

The Dodgers were 8-4 against St. Louis during the regular season and would have caught the Cardinals without center fielder Ray Lankford, who tore a rotator cuff Friday and is expected to sit out two weeks. They were 7-5 against Atlanta, but Karros acknowledged October is a different matter.

“The Braves are the defending World Series champions and you’ve got to respect that,” he said.

“When we get an opportunity [against their pitching] we have to take advantage of it. Whether it’s one or two a game, we can’t pass it up.

“And our pitchers have to continue doing what they’ve been doing all year, keeping us in the game. We’re not going to score many runs against that staff.”

Dodger pitchers produced a 2.43 earned-run average against Atlanta during the season, but the hitters were restricted to a .221 batting average.

In losing the final four games to San Francisco and San Diego, two of which went extra innings, the Dodgers scored only five runs as the top of the order--basically Wayne Kirby and Todd Hollandsworth--failed to light a spark, Mike Piazza was a weary three for 15 in the middle, and Tim Wallach, Delino DeShields and Greg Gagne represented three innings of outs at the bottom.

The wild card carried one potential blessing: Two off days. Manager Bill Russell said the Dodgers would be a different team Wednesday.

However, five runs in four games doesn’t create much confidence heading into a duel with Smoltz (24-8, 2.94), Maddux (15-11, 2.72) and Glavine (15-10, 3.02)--three pitchers about to retire the Cy Young Award.

Glavine won it in ‘91, Maddux won the next four and Smoltz, who has set an Atlanta club record for victories and strikeouts this year, has a lock on the ’96 award.

Said Karros: “Some people say a short series is an advantage for us, but if Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux pitch their games, it’s see you later.”

The Braves, of course, are more than an arms factory. They finished second in the National League in runs and out-hit last year’s World Series champion by 20 points despite the early-season loss of David Justice for the year because of a broken collarbone, the absence of shortstop Jeff Blauser for two months because of a broken hand and the introduction of rookie outfielders Jermaine Dye and Andruw Jones.

Dye has taken over in right field and Blauser recently returned at shortstop, allowing manager Bobby Cox to return Chipper Jones to third base and put Terry Pendleton on the bench as insurance.

How will the Dodgers’ performance in the last four games affect the way they play Wednesday?

“We’ve either fallen off the cliff and are done, or it will have slapped us in the face and we’ll come back like gangbusters,” Butler said. “I don’t think there will be any in-betweens. The way we’ve overcome so much adversity this year, I think we’ll come back strong again. If we’re not embarrassed by getting swept in three games at home, something is wrong. I guarantee these guys are upset.”

Perhaps, but there’s still the matter of Smoltz, Maddux and Glavine.

“They’re good pitchers, but they’re human, too,” Kirby said, looking for one more positive. “There has to be a weakness somewhere. If they were perfect, they’d all be 30-0.”