Netanyahu Appears Headed for Close Victory in Israel

JERUSALEM —  With nearly all votes counted, right-wing Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu appeared headed for a bare-bones victory over Prime Minister Shimon Peres on Thursday after a hard-fought race on the issues of Middle East peacemaking.

The Central Elections Committee said that based on 99.9% of the regular ballots cast, Netanyahu had 50.3% to 49.6% for Peres--an advantage of 21,399 votes out of more than 2.8 million.

Neither candidate was declaring victory or defeat on such a narrow margin, particularly since a few regular ballot boxes and about 150,000 absentee ballots from soldiers, diplomats and prisoners still had to be tallied.

But Likud supporters began private celebrations, and Labor Party officials acknowledged that they expect Netanyahu’s advantage to stand in Israel’s first direct election for prime minister.

“If I have to make a fair analysis, it does not seem likely there could be a turnabout,” Raanan Cohen, Labor’s representative to the Central Elections Committee, said in a telephone interview.

“Theoretically it’s possible, but . . . in order to win, Shimon Peres needs 57% of the absentee votes, most of which are [from] young soldiers who are not with us,” Cohen said.

Secret service agents did not wait for final results to beef up their protection of the apparent prime minister-elect. Security was extremely heavy around Netanyahu, who was holed up in a Tel Aviv hotel with personal advisors and party leaders, reportedly discussing possible coalitions for a new government.

Israel Radio reported that Likud leaders had decided to open unofficial talks with the various religious parties with an eye toward forming a conservative government coalition, a move implying that a unity government with Labor would not be Netanyahu’s first choice.

Throughout the country, Labor Party activists and supporters appeared near tears in disappointment and anger. The mood of some was expressed by Leah Rabin, widow of slain Labor Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who said, “I feel like packing my suitcase and getting the hell out of here.”

Final results were delayed by the fact that the soldiers’ votes had to be checked against hometown registration lists to guard against double balloting. The Central Elections Committee said it hopes to have final figures today, but that if it does not finish its work by the beginning of the Jewish Sabbath at sundown, official results will not be released until Sunday morning.

Cohen said Labor had no plans to ask for a recount, but that he is investigating the fact that there are more than twice as many defaced or disqualified ballots in the votes for prime minister as in the votes for the Knesset, or parliament.

Netanyahu said through his advisor, Danny Naveh, that he will make no speeches before final results are announced. At the same time, Netanyahu tried to assure Israelis that he would work to mend the deep national schism reaffirmed by the vote, and he tried to calm international concerns about what the fate of the peace process would be in his hands.

“Benjamin Netanyahu is deeply committed to continuing the process for peace and security between Israel and its neighbors, including the Palestinians. He is committed to deepening the relationship of peace between Israel and those Arab countries with whom we already have an existing peace,” Naveh said.

During his election campaign, Netanyahu called Peres’ policy of trading land for peace with the Palestinians a failure and a threat to Israeli security. He homed in on Israelis’ fear of terrorism and guerrilla attacks by Islamic extremists.

Underscoring that danger, Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrillas killed four Israeli soldiers and wounded seven Thursday in an ambush near Marjayoun in Israeli-occupied southern Lebanon.

A colonel was among the fatalities in two military convoys hit by roadside bombs.

U.S. and Arab world leaders were cautious in their response to the returns that pointed to a Netanyahu victory. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat made no official statement and issued a directive to Palestinian Authority officials and Palestine Liberation Organization Executive Committee members to refrain from commenting.

Arafat, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s King Hussein reportedly are planning to meet next week to discuss the election results.

President Clinton, who had all but openly campaigned for Peres and seemed saddened by his apparent defeat, said he will continue to work for peace with any Israeli leader.

“I am going to wait for the votes to come in and a winner to be declared and a government to be announced, and then we’ll see where we go,” Clinton said at the White House.

Peres met with his Cabinet at the Defense Ministry early Thursday and made no public statements afterward. Cabinet members emerged from the meeting looking downcast. Party leader Nissim Zvilli described Peres as restrained but holding up well.

“He’s known suffering before, and he’s been through a lot in his life,” Zvilli said. “We shall wait for the final results . . . before deciding upon any moves.”

The vote is shaping up as a major personal failure for the 73-year-old Peres, for whom this would be the fifth electoral defeat. Rabin, Peres’ Labor Party rival turned partner in peace, used to tell friends that the dovish Peres was a dreamer and unelectable in Israel.

Rabin defeated Peres to become Labor’s candidate in 1992. He won that national election by promising to negotiate peace with strength and security, and he made Peres his foreign minister. Together they signed the peace agreement with Arafat in 1993, and the three shared a Nobel Peace Prize.

Last November, Yigal Amir, a right-wing Jewish law student, assassinated Rabin over that agreement. Peres took over the prime minister’s office and called early elections.

It is unclear whether Netanyahu’s apparent victory means that most Israelis reject the policy of conceding land, or if they believe that Peres moves too quickly, without sufficient guarantees for security.

A suicide bombing campaign by the militant Islamic group Hamas in February and March that killed more than 60 people turned many Israelis away from Peres and his brand of peacemaking.

“Too many Israelis saw the peace process as too dangerous on a personal level,” said Joseph Alpher, director of the Israel/Middle East office of the American Jewish Committee in Jerusalem.

Under the direction of his American campaign advisor, Arthur Finkelstein, Netanyahu hammered on those fears every day in speeches and television ads and, finally, in a dogged televised debate with Peres.

“People believed that Bibi [Netanyahu] would be tougher,” said a Labor government official who asked not to be identified. “He was tough on television during the debate. He came across as someone tougher, younger, who has a fighting spirit. The other guy seemed a little slow and old and moody.”

Peres started the election campaign with a non-campaign, believing that it was sufficient to run the government and act prime ministerial. Later, he ran a campaign, but it was a lackluster one that failed to drive home the political and economic benefits of peacemaking or to persuade voters that he could protect them as well or better than the inexperienced Netanyahu could.

Against the advice of his associates, Peres insisted on putting forth his vision of a new Middle East, one of peace and cooperation between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

“He put a high priority on integration with the Arab world, and it appeared to be a higher priority than security. He kept talking about the new Middle East,” Alpher said. “Most Israelis don’t buy this. They don’t see this as a warm peace. They don’t think the Arab world wants a warm peace, and they don’t want it.”

Exactly what Netanyahu would do with the peace process is difficult to discern. He has made statements, such as the one Thursday, that he would honor the internationally backed peace agreement and accept the facts it has created “on the ground.” Under the accords, the Peres government has handed over control of the Gaza Strip and West Bank cities, except for Hebron, to the Palestinians.

But Netanyahu has also made many statements that contradict the letter or spirit of the peace agreements. He has said he would bolster--and possibly expand--Jewish settlements on the West Bank, allow Israeli troops to reenter Palestinian-run cities when necessary for security and halt the withdrawal of troops from Hebron. He also has said he will not discuss any Palestinian claims to Jerusalem.

Any one of these issues is likely to infuriate the Palestinians.

A key to his intentions may be found in whatever government he forms if, as expected, he is declared the winner, and what posts his most extreme right-wing allies--Ariel Sharon, Rafael Eitan and others--are given. Sharon, who would like to be defense minister, wants to expand settlements rapidly and views the peace process as a sham. He says Arafat is “a war criminal,” not someone to negotiate with.

The new prime minister must submit his government to parliament for approval within 45 days of the announcement of final results.

Likud and Labor both took big losses in the 120-member Knesset, giving more clout to an array of small parties. According to the latest results, Labor dropped to 33 seats from 44, and the Likud coalition was left with 31 seats, down from 40.

The religious parties increased their total to 25 from 16, Natan Sharansky’s new immigrant party, Yisrael Ba-Aliya, won seven seats, and the two predominantly Arab parties increased from five to nine seats.

The leftist Meretz party lost its place as the third-largest party, losing three seats to keep nine. The new Third Way party won four seats and the ultra-conservative Moledet won two, down from three.

Political analysts said there are several options for a new government, including a coalition with the religious, immigrant and centrist Third Way groups. There was much speculation about the possibility of a unity government with Likud and Labor, but Likud leaders suggested that they would first try to form a government without Labor.

* REACTION: L.A emigres and Jews ponder the election in Israel. B1