Using the ‘Peanut Farmer Test’ to Predict Dole’s Choice

My credentials as a political prognosticator date to 1976, when I tabbed a peanut farmer from Georgia as the next president of the United States. The prediction was made before the first primary, when the farmer was under 5% in preference polls. You score a prediction like that, and you get a lifetime exemption from being ridiculed.

Not one to rest on my laurels, though, I’ve been predicting ever since.

The key to any meaningful political prediction is to pick against form. Call it the “Peanut Farmer Test.” Anyone who picked Geraldine Ferraro as Walter Mondale’s running mate in 1984 would qualify as a supreme prognosticator. By contrast, predicting that Jimmy Carter would pick Mondale in ’76 or that Michael Dukakis would tab Lloyd Bentsen in 1988 wouldn’t have been worth the effort--the choices were on everyone’s short list of likely nominees.

This year, the only worthwhile prediction involves Bob Dole’s choice for running mate. Keep a Colin Powell prediction to yourself, because everyone knows Dole would love to have him. On the other hand, predicting that Howard Stern will receive The Dole Phone Call would take the Peanut Farmer Test to new heights.

Remember, though, that making a daring prediction gets you no points if it turns out to be wrong.

With all those things in mind, I’m going with Pete Wilson as Dole’s choice.

I realize Wilson isn’t a daring choice. Just a few months ago, he wouldn’t have passed the Peanut Farmer Test. But he has slipped sufficiently to qualify. Predicting him doesn’t rise to the level of a Ferraro, but he’s no Lloyd Bentsen, either.

Wilson’s feeble presidential campaign hurt him, and he doesn’t add the one thing a Dole candidacy needs: pizazz. On top of that, the governor is one of those wimpy pro-choice Republicans, and you know how that goes over with the right wing of the party. Add to that that Wilson will be 63 and Dole 73 by summer’s end, and you don’t exactly have Chip and Dale here.

So, lots of things militate against Wilson. Which means he’s a prediction worth making.

Now, in defense:

Most pundits are mentioning various governors from the Midwestern states of Ohio, Michigan or Illinois, believing Dole needs one or more of those states to win. New Jersey Gov. Christine Whitman and Massachusetts Gov. William Weld both provide generational balance and, in Whitman’s case, gender balance. Wilson’s stock on the “most-mentioned” lists plummeted when Republicans considered California a lost cause.

But is it?

Wasn’t that the governor this week at an Orange County elementary school, talking about giving $50,000 to every public school in California? That followed quickly on his pronouncement that he wants the state’s reading curriculum to return to a more traditional phonics approach.

Suddenly, the governor who so crassly went after illegal immigrants in 1994 is looking like the counterbalance to those big bad Republicans the polls are decrying. Besides, if Clinton is said to be benefiting from a revitalized California economy, why not Wilson too?

Dole won’t do something off-the-wall with his vice presidential choice. No surprise candidate, like a Ferraro, would make sense with Dole. An open-necked sport shirt is about as far as this traditional guy can go. He’s eggs; he has to go with bacon.

Clinton scored points by taking a vice president almost identical to himself, philosophically. That eliminated any potential for charges he was trying to balance the ticket for political reasons. Dole could follow the same course by choosing Wilson.

It also plays well into concerns about Dole’s age and medical history. His vice president must inspire confidence. For Republicans, this is no time for a Quayle; it would be a good time for a Wilson.

In short, Wilson’s experience would override concerns that a Dole-Wilson ticket would be too old.

As for Wilson’s vote-getting pull around the country, it doesn’t matter. That’s Dole’s job. It’s enough that non-Californians see Wilson as competent. The critical factor in Wilson’s candidacy would be, pure and simple, could he carry California? When that answer was no, Wilson dropped off the V.P. radar.

Wilson’s public school forays tell me he’s either auditioning for vice president or that Dole has already tabbed him and told him to get his campaign off and running. If Wilson’s overtures soften the Dole candidacy enough that Californians are enticed to want a homeboy in the White House, Wilson is in.

Bottom line: Everyone knows that if Dole wins California, he wins the presidency. Could Dole and the governor of Ohio win California? The governor of Michigan? If I were Wilson, I’d pass those answers on to Dole.

A tough Bob Dole, and a tough but pro-choice and pro-education Pete Wilson. That’s how the Republicans will try to play it.

I made my Wilson prediction a couple weeks ago to a friend, and I like it more than ever this week. However, should it all turn out to be bunk, please remember my lifetime exemption from ridicule.

* Dana Parsons’ columns appears Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Readers may reach Parsons by writing to him at the Times Orange County Edition, 1375 Sunflower Ave., Costa Mesa, CA 92626, or calling (714) 966-7821.