As Free Agent, Dole Is Player in California

SACRAMENTO —  Before Sen. Bob Dole heaved the long ball Wednesday, most political players and spectators alike had suspected that the so-called presidential contest in California would amount to just a series of head fakes.

Quick little moves now and then--a short run of TV ads in a cheap market, a brief overnight trip for photo-ops, a ceremonial headquarters opening--just to keep the opponent off balance and wondering. Is he really going to make a big effort in California? Naw, but . . .

President Clinton’s aim, sources have confided, has been to do the minimum necessary to maintain a comfortable lead in polls and persuade Dole that California is not winnable. Then Clinton could avoid committing $10 million or more and countless cross-country trips to campaigning in California.

Similarly, Dole’s strategy--such as it was--has been to keep Clinton on guard in California and finesse the president into diluting his efforts in more competitive states, particularly the upper Midwest.

Both had game plans calling for head fakes toward California while making their best moves around the Big Lakes.

Now they’ll both be rethinking the head fake strategy. Freed from Senate quorum calls, Citizen Dole will have time to campaign all-out in California and test Clinton’s vulnerability in a state the President absolutely must win, based on any analysis of electoral votes. California offers 20% of the 270 needed for victory.

*

Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, a Dole California co-chairman, confessed that at first he doubted the wisdom of the senator resigning his seat. “Now I think it’s a great move,” he said. “This fits Bob Dole. He’s one of the most energized men I’ve ever met in politics, but people across the country haven’t been able to see that energy. Soon they will.”

As for California, Lungren surmised, “it certainly improves our chances greatly.”

Dole has not campaigned in California for nearly two months, since right before the primary that he won to nail down the nomination. Now he’ll be stumping here for three days at the end of the month, Gov. Pete Wilson announced Wednesday.

“I’m in a very buoyant mood,” Wilson told reporters after the senator’s announcement. “The polls are now meaningless. Things will change dramatically. There’s going to be a real fight. . . . You’re going to see California as a battleground.”

Perhaps. But time alone won’t do it for Dole in a state Clinton won handily in 1992 and where the president recently has led by roughly 20 points. The Kansan also will need a compelling message and a more unified California campaign than the hybrid organization that Wilson in February wrestled from Lungren in a nasty coup.

“The California organization is viewed [by Dole and the national GOP] as being a disaster,” said one Republican insider, echoing others. “Dole needs to go out there and impose discipline and now he can.”

Several sources say Dole lost confidence in Wilson’s campaign judgment after the governor led him on what has been widely derided as “the death tour”--the senator’s visit to San Quentin’s gas chamber and Richard Nixon’s grave.

Commented GOP state chairman John Herrington: “San Quentin is not an appropriate [event]. Dole needs to focus on the positive. There are criminals in cages there. If he went to the Youth Authority, he’d see a whole different story--programs that are beginning to have benefit. . . .

“Seriously, Dole can win out here.”

*

One person who strongly agrees is veteran GOP strategist Ken Khachigian, who is not part of the Dole campaign.

“Bob Dole is now Bob ‘Bold’,” Khachigian quipped. “He threw the long ball, which is the way you change things in politics. . . . Now I’d spend a lot of time out here and rally the troops, remove the gloom and doom and stop the panic.”

A political hardballer, Khachigian said Dole should campaign up and down the state talking about Clinton’s “bill of wrongs”--base closings, the gas tax hike, lack of federal reimbursements for illegal immigrant services, no welfare reform. . . .

“But a lot of it,” Khachigian added, “should be an emotional and moral message about lifting America and creating a sense of optimism that things can get right again. It’s not an easy message, but what Bob Dole has going for him primarily is that he’s truly an American giant.”

One Dole source said that the campaign conducted 13 focus groups and were stunned to learn that 80% of those surveyed knew little about the man, except he’s a senator. They didn’t even know he’s a wounded war hero.

Dole’s dramatic announcement guarantees that at least for awhile, he’ll have an attentive audience to tell his story. If he tells it well enough he can skip the head fakes.