Young Arms Give Braves Upper Hand

SARASOTA, Fla. —  It’s not too early to book hotel rooms in Atlanta for October. In fact, it may be too late.

That’s how certain it appears that the Braves will make a three-peat trip to the National League playoffs and World Series. It’s been a long time, perhaps since the New York Yankees won 14 of 16 pennants between 1949-1964, that a team went into a season as a more prohibitive favorite than the Braves are this year.

It’s not because manager Bobby Cox has an overpowering team -- his position players leave the Braves with some holes and question marks. But the pitching staff that general manager John Schuerholz topped off by adding free agent Greg Maddux is so strong it can again overcome the absence of a proven closer.

Left-hander Steve Avery could be the best of the talented bunch -- and he won’t be 23 until April 14. On that day Maddux turns 27, which will make him the same age as Tom Glavine and Pete Smith. And John Smoltz (where have you gone Doyle Alexander) is still three months shy of his 26th birthday.

All Cox has to do is keep his starters out of any arm-wrestling tournaments and off the same bus this spring. The Braves have four potential 20-game winners. If Mark Wohlers, who throws hard enough, can mature as a closer, the Braves won’t have to score a lot of runs. But with Terry Pendleton, David Justice, Ron Gant, Deion Sanders and Otis Nixon they have the ability to create enough offense. And the pitching is good enough to offset some defensive liabilities.

It would probably take at least two bad arms for the Braves to stumble, and if they do it’s hard to tell if there’s a team in the NL West good enough to win. Cincinnati? Rookie manager Tony Perez has seven players older than 31-year-old general manager Jim Bowden.

Left-hander Tom Browning has to come back from knee surgery and free agent John Smiley has to replace Greg Swindell. Norm Charlton is gone, and if the Reds have to depend on Jeff Reardon as their setup man, Rob Dibble may not come close to the 40 or 50 saves Perez thinks he can log.

The Reds are counting on Kevin Mitchell, obtained from the Seattle Mariners for Charlton, to regain his home run touch now that he’s back in the NL. But his totals have dropped from 45 homers four years ago to nine last season.

Houston has made the most dramatic turnaround in the division, on the field and in the front office. Hometown heroes Doug Drabek and Greg Swindell were signed as free agents to step in front of right-hander Pete Harnisch in the starting rotation.

Steve Finley, may be their best player, but the Astros still appear to be a little short.

Of the other teams, the Giants present the most interesting possibility, if only because of the addition of Barry Bonds. The new ownership hopes its $43.5 million investment is a team shelter, making Will Clark an even better hitter and helping Matt Williams to regain his home run stroke.

But the Giants have a lot of uncertainty on the pitching staff. Rookie Kevin Rogers, a phenom in the Arizona Fall League, could help in the bullpen, but the Giants might have to eat the last two years of Dave Righetti’s contract.

Despite three bona fide superstars -- Tony Gwynn, Gary Sheffield and Fred McGriff -- you can forget the San Diego Padres, and it’s hard to see how Tommy Lasorda can find enough pieces for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Colorado Rockies will add another scenic city to the division.

In the NL East, if Pittsburgh Pirates manager Jim Leyland is going to solidify his genius reputation, he’s in the right division. And, despite the loss of Bobby Bonilla, Drabek, Bonds and Jose Lind in the last two years, it might not be wise to dismiss the Pirates.

The organization has produced a lot of quality players the past 10 years, so it might be worth checking out the likes of left fielder Al Martin, first baseman Kevin Young and second baseman Carlos Garcia before making any rash predictions.

However, parity rather than quality is likely to be the division’s trademark.

Montreal is getting a lot of attention for the same reason that the Pirates can’t be dismissed -- because the Expos have been a very productive organization. If ex-Oriole Dennis Martinez can stay young at 37 and Towson State (Md.) product Chris Nabholz can become a veteran at 26, the Expos have a chance.

Manager Felipe Alou has put teams on notice that he’ll use exhibition games to experiment on things he feels will help win games during the season. It’s called a motion offense.

You learn all you need to know about the New York Mets’ defense last year by looking at their lineup changes. They’ll have new people at second (Jeff Kent), shortstop (Tony Fernandez), center field (Ryan Thompson) and third base (Howard Johnson).

After cavorting at shortstop and in center field, Johnson is back where he belongs. Kent and Thompson are the prospects the Mets got in return for David Cone. Kent is a good-looking hitter with questionable defensive skills while Thompson is a good defensive player with some offensive potential.

Ex-Oriole Eddie Murray remains the key to manager Jeff Torborg’s offense. Brett Saberhagen, who missed most of last year because of an injury to his index finger, should be the ace of the staff.

Dwight Gooden is coming off his first losing season and Sid Fernandez, despite what many say is the best stuff in the league, is still striving for consistency. General Manager Al Harazin felt compelled to add veteran left-hander Frank Tanana, 41, to the starting rotation.

If Bonilla can play as he did in Pittsburgh and Vince Coleman is inclined to generate something from the top of the lineup, the Mets might be able to make another run at the top. But they are a curious collection.

The Chicago Cubs lost Maddux and outfielder Andre Dawson to free agency and then did almost a complete reconstruction job over the winter. Mike Morgan is the best starter, but manager Jim Lefebvre is depending on free agent Jose Guzman.

A healthy Mike Harkey, who hasn’t had a full year in the big leagues, could give the Cubs a formidable rotation. General manager Larry Himes, who left himself vulnerable with the departure of Maddux and Dawson, is staking his rebuilding ability on the collection he has assembled.

St. Louis is another puzzling team, but manager Joe Torre nudged the Cardinals to third place a year ago. Gregg Jefferies, with his third team in three years, again finds himself the man on the spot.

He’ll be working on his third position (first base), which says something about his defensive skills. Todd Zeile, who started as a can’t-miss catching prospect and had to return to the minors last year, must produce at third base, and shortstop Ozzie Smith and closer Lee Smith need another big year for the Cards to compete.

Last year, the Phillies figured they could contend because of their pitching. Instead, they finished with the worst ERA in the league. They’ve added left-handers Danny Jackson, who won 23 games in 1988 and 21 in the next four years, and David West, the former Mets phenom who hasn’t fulfilled expectations. But that’s not enough to prevent another long year for manager Jim Fregosi.

Not to be outdone by their expansion twin, the Florida Marlins will provide a nice place to visit.