Area Analysts Say Early Census Count Missed 3,700 People

Entire housing tracts in Oak Park and the city of Ventura were missed during early census counts, so Ventura County’s population of 650,880 should be increased by at least 3,700 residents before the count becomes final in December, city and county analysts said Monday.

The analysts, who have pored over preliminary U.S. Census Bureau figures since the numbers were released two weeks ago, also said they question the bureau’s finding that more than 6% of the county’s dwellings are vacant. A recent state estimate was only 3.8%.

In general, however, planners in most area cities and at the county praised the bureau’s early work, saying that the large undercounts of 1970 and 1980 seem to have been avoided this year.

“In most of the places we’ve checked we’re finding they are quite accurate,” county senior planner Steve Wood said. But verification by local analysts is limited to comparing the number of dwellings reported by the census with local figures.

Using that method, area analysts found that the initial canvass failed to include up to 900 houses in suburban Oak Park east of Thousand Oaks and some 300 dwellings in a mobile home park and in Rancho Ventura in eastern Ventura.

Port Hueneme also has reported to the Census Bureau an undercount of about 140 dwellings, mostly in a newly completed subdivision on Victoria Avenue.

If the size of each of the 1,340 uncounted dwellings discovered so far matches the county average of 2.8 residents, about 3,700 people were not included in the preliminary population count.

That prompts concern, because Ventura County and its 10 cities all receive some tax money in proportion to their populations. Officials said each extra person brings the county $200 a year in state and federal subsidies, while an extra city resident brings it about $50 through vehicle fees and gas and cigarette taxes.

The extra residents in unincorporated Oak Park will bring the county about $500,000 a year. The uncounted residents in Ventura would mean a windfall of $42,000 for the city each year.

Geary-Ellen Williams, manager of the census office in Ventura, confirmed problems with the Oak Park preliminary count.

“People called in and said they didn’t receive our questionnaire,” she said. Census workers have since canvassed that community, counting residents in each unlisted home, she said.

“The whole point of giving the cities this preliminary information is so they can help us get an accurate count,” Williams said. When releasing the early figures Aug. 27, the Census Bureau said it expected upward revisions.

City and county planners have another week to complete their check of the figures and to file a challenge. But representatives of seven cities said Monday that they have seen little to indicate that the preliminary count is far off the mark.

In Thousand Oaks, where the census numbers were about 3,600 residents below state estimates, senior planner John Prescott said his check shows that the federal figures jibe with the city’s.

Thousand Oaks has 37,500 dwellings, the city estimates, while the federal count is 37,748.

“Right now it looks like the difference is going to be less than 1%,” he said. “You want zero percent, but in some of these areas we don’t even have a complete count ourselves for April 1.”

The 1990 census is intended to reflect population for April 1, 1990.

Part of the difference between federal and local figures reflects new dwellings completed between Jan. 1, when the census did its initial count, and April 1.

However, federal officials said they were not sure how hundreds of older homes were missed.

For example, in Ventura, the two uncounted subdivisions are well established, planner Mark Stephens said. “Those are the two most significant discrepancies we see,” he said, “but we’ll spend the next few days going back and checking our figures against theirs.”

Ojai Planning Director Bill Prince said about the only thing he has found to challenge is an undercount of 22 people. The city found 212 senior citizens in retirement homes instead of 190 as reported by federal canvassers.

Nonetheless, representatives of several cities said they question dwelling vacancy rates reported in the census. In Santa Paula, chief of planning Joan Kus said she knows of virtually no vacant houses or apartments, while the census says the city has 526 out of a total of 8,077.

“Their figure is kind of ridiculous based on common knowledge,” Kus said.

Under census guidelines, vacancy rates are not subject to challenge, Kus said. But she plans to ask Ventura County to file a protest on behalf of all area cities since the rate in the census is nearly double the state’s estimate.

Even before revisions upward, Ventura County’s population of nearly 651,000 is an increase of 122,000 over the past decade. That 23% rate of growth is slightly under the 24% rate for California during the 1980s.