Hunter Can’t Savor Victory Long as New Hurdle Nears

Even as she savored her victory in Tuesday’s special 76th Assembly District election, Republican Tricia Hunter conceded Wednesday that her elation is tempered by the knowledge that she faces a reelection campaign in only eight months--a race in which many believe she could be vulnerable to a challenge within her own party.

“I recognize I have to run again next June, so there’s not much time for a breather,” said Hunter, who drew nearly 49% of the vote in a four-candidate race to fill the vacancy created by the death last June of Assemblyman Bill Bradley (R-Escondido). “It would be nice to enjoy this (victory) longer before starting to think about the next race, but that’s the reality of running for office. I knew that when I got into this.”

As Hunter confronted the maxim that a politician’s next campaign begins the day after the last one, political consultants and others argued Wednesday that the results of Tuesday’s election indicate that Hunter has considerable work ahead of her to shore up her position in preparation for next spring’s primary.

With about 4,800 write-in votes remaining to be counted as of late Wednesday, Hunter, a first-time candidate whose pro-choice stance on abortion attracted traditional Democratic support in the heavily Republican district, had received 25,531 votes, giving her a comfortable margin of at least 10% over her nearest rival, GOP write-in candidate Dick Lyles.

Lyles, who lost to Hunter by only 197 votes in the eight-candidate August primary, had a tentative total of 14,863 votes, a figure that will increase when verification of the write-in ballots resumes today. Assuming that Lyles receives almost all of the remaining ballots--as he did of the approximately 10,000 counted Wednesday--his final vote total would be about 19,800, or 38%.

Democrat Jeannine Correia was a distant third with 6,654 votes, while another write-in candidate, Lakeside accountant Kirby Bowser, was a virtual nonentity in the race, drawing only 48 votes.

Although Hunter expressed satisfaction with her near-majority victory, others argued that Lyles’ performance raises concerns for the 37-year-old Bonita nurse as she looks ahead to next June’s GOP primary in the conservative San Diego-Riverside County district. In particular, many consultants concurred with Lyles’ own strategists in describing his 38% vote share as impressive, given the formidable obstacles that face any write-in candidate.

“I don’t think the result is one that gives Hunter a lot of comfort,” said David Lewis, one of San Diego’s leading political consultants. “Dick Lyles made a very respectable effort that might encourage some others to take a look at this race next time.”

“Anytime any write-in gets that many votes, you’d better expect a tough campaign next time around,” added another local consultant, Jack Orr. “Add that to her failure to get 50% as the Republican nominee in a very heavily Republican district, and those numbers signal a strong, tough primary next June.”

Disputing such analyses, Hunter attributed Lyles’ relatively strong showing primarily to Tuesday’s low 20% turnout and the nature of the special election, rather than voters’ dissatisfaction with her own candidacy.

Noting that Lyles’ staunch anti-abortion position was the cornerstone of his runoff campaign, Hunter, who made similar use of her pro-choice advocacy during the primary, argued that “single-issue candidates and voters have a much greater impact” in special elections than they do in normal campaigns. Complacency among Republicans who regarded her primary victory as tantamount to election--as it typically is in a district with a 55%-32% GOP registration edge--also held down her winning percentage, Hunter contended.

“I don’t think the lessons of this campaign carry over to next June,” Hunter said. “In a special election with only a 20% turnout, single-issue voters can make themselves felt more strongly than in a typical general election with a 60% turnout. The next election is going to be very different from this one. I’m not concerned at all.”

One critical way in which next year’s campaign is likely to differ involves the volatile abortion issue, which played a pivotal role in this year’s special election, a race that drew national attention as a referendum on the political fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court’s controversial July ruling giving states new authority to restrict abortions.

With Hunter’s pro-choice position providing a compelling contrast with the other anti-abortion Republicans in the race, activists on both sides of the emotional issue poured money and manpower into the contest, hoping to send a message to politicians in next year’s national elections.

Focus on Issues

Though Hunter’s pro-choice position clearly dominated the campaign--drawing equally passionate support and opposition--some political observers doubt that the same ideological battle lines will be seen in next June’s race. Not only will the passage of nine months remove the proximity between court ruling and campaign that riveted attention on an otherwise obscure state Assembly race, but also Hunter already has demonstrated that being pro-choice is not an insurmountable barrier, even in a strongly conservative district.

“If Hunter’s ever going to be beaten, it’s going to have to be on issues other than the ones Dick Lyles articulated,” said Herb Williams, a consultant who managed the campaign of one of Hunter’s chief primary opponents, Poway City Councilwoman Linda Brannon. “To try to use that same issue next time would be ridiculous.”

Although there was some disagreement over the import of Tuesday’s results for Hunter’s political future, there was no shortage of advice on what the new assemblywoman needs to do over the next eight months to strengthen her hold on the seat.

From Williams’ perspective, Hunter already has taken a significant step in that direction by reaching out to groups and individuals that initially opposed her. On Election Night, for example, Hunter invited many of her former primary opponents and their backers to her headquarters, the type of small, symbolic gesture that often pays major political dividends.

“She’s making the right moves,” Williams said. “Next year, when people look in the mirror and say, ‘I think I can beat her,’ a lot of the support they’re counting on won’t be there.”

A less desirable byproduct of the campaign, other consultants said, is an image problem for Hunter that stems from Lyles’ attempts to paint her as a moderate to liberal whose policies are to the left of mainstream Republicans.

During the race, Hunter vigorously disputed that allegation, pointing to, among other things, her support of the death penalty, opposition to public employee strikes and backing of a constitutional amendment to ban the burning of the American flag. Nevertheless, Lyles’ ideological attacks resonated with many conservatives in the district, leaving Hunter in the position of still having to prove her Republican credentials to many in her own party.

“Hunter’s true positions were never as far to the left as Lyles made them out to be, but now it’s up to her to prove that through her votes,” consultant Lewis said.

Orr added: “She has (eight) months to turn into the most serious Republican in history. If she’s smart, she’ll introduce every bill she can on issues like crime, drugs, education and other traditional values. My advice would be, go to Sacramento and turn to the right!”

Acknowledging that Lyles’ criticism did some damage, Hunter said she expects her voting record “to be very, very closely scrutinized,” both by her political allies and opponents, each searching for evidence to reinforce their respective confidence or skepticism.

“When people get to know me, any lingering doubts will disappear,” Hunter said. “By next June, all the rhetoric from this campaign will have been put aside. By then, people can judge me on a record and the facts, not rhetoric.”