But Aggressiveness Carries Risks : Negative Ratings Causing Bush to Step Up Attacks

WASHINGTON —  Vice President Bush’s political aides, concerned by polls showing him with high negative ratings and far behind Democratic presidential nominee Michael S. Dukakis, have advised him to step up attacks on Dukakis and flesh out a political agenda demonstrating his divergence from President Reagan’s more unpopular policies.

Although Bush’s advisers say an aggressive strategy is necessary to slow Dukakis’ momentum, they acknowledge its risks. By attacking Dukakis too harshly, Bush could solidify the extraordinarily high percentage of voters--40% to 45% in recent polls--who express negative opinions about Bush.

And, although dissociating himself from some of Reagan’s policies might help bring down his own negative ratings, it could also cost him the support of some of the President’s more ardent followers.

The attack on Dukakis has already begun in earnest. On Thursday, Bush leveled his harshest charges yet, saying a Dukakis presidency “would make the world not a safe place,” by leading the United States to effective “unilateral disarmament.” (Story, Page 16.)

Bush and other Republicans are also planning to assail Dukakis at the Republican convention in New Orleans, which begins Aug. 15, as a free-spending liberal who would return the country to double-digit inflation and high interest rates. But they insist that they will not resort to the tactics employed by the Democrats during their convention last month.

“The convention attacks will be pale in comparison to the Democrats’ attacks on Bush,” said a senior Bush political adviser who asked not to be identified. “There will be valid comparisons of records and comments on several issues, such as capital punishment and gun control,” he said, adding that he was sure the Democrats would make charges of “mudslinging” anyway.

Another senior adviser, pollster Robert Teeter, said that “about half” of Bush’s negative ratings were related directly to his role as Reagan’s vice president. Once Bush becomes the Republican nominee and the new party leader in New Orleans, he said, “I think you will see those institutional negatives decline a little.”

Bush has faced a delicate balancing act in trying to dissociate himself from some of Reagan’s policies while also identifying himself with the President’s successes and counting on the President to campaign for him.

‘An 800-Pound Gorilla’

“His problem is how to go about getting an 800-pound gorilla on the stage without being embraced by him,” said Doug Bailey, a Republican political strategist. “They’re doing the appropriate thing at the Republican convention by having Reagan speak first and be in and out of town before Bush even arrives.”

Bush’s problem, said one of his political advisers, is that “he would not be the Republican nominee if he was not carrying on the Reagan legacy, and he knows that. So, running on Reagan’s shoulders is the only credible way he can run.

“But how does he build on the Reagan legacy and yet show some independence? It’s a dilemma, and he hasn’t decided yet how to handle it.”

For about four months, Bush has been cautiously trying to spell out his own agenda and ease out from under Reagan’s far-reaching shadow.

Bush ‘Spelling It Out’

“George Bush has been in a secondary position for more than seven years, and he made a conscious decision to hide his agenda,” said Lee Atwater, Bush’s campaign manager. “Now, he’s slowly spelling it out--on child care, on defense, on ethics in government, on the environment in California--and he’ll continue to do that.”

On May 6, two of his top advisers--Teeter and Peter B. Teeley--called Atty. Gen. Edwin Meese III a “political liability” for Bush because of his legal problems. Although Reagan continued to defend Meese, Bush let his aides’ criticism of Meese stand and said he himself was “troubled” by allegations of conflict of interest.

Two weeks later, his staff disclosed that Bush favored ending the Reagan Administration’s negotiations with Panamanian strongman Manuel A. Noriega and was opposed to a plan being considered by Reagan to drop a drug-smuggling indictment against Noriega.

Policy on Oil Drilling

In subsequent weeks, the vice president:

--Broke with Reagan’s policies of expanding offshore oil drilling in California.

--Called for more substantial Soviet compliance with human rights accords before the United States would agree to another U.S.-Soviet summit.

--Proposed that federal education spending, which was sharply reduced in the early years of the Reagan Administration, be increased.

--Proposed two costly new tax breaks--a child-care credit for the poor and a 10% credit for oil and gas exploration--that would conflict with Reagan’s tax overhaul legacy.

--Endorsed a presidential AIDS commission’s recommendations, later rejected by Reagan, for legislation and an executive order barring discrimination against AIDS carriers.

For all this, some Republican political strategists say that Bush has failed so far to deliver a clear message about his agenda. Bush’s problem, said Edward J. Rollins, a political consultant who was Reagan’s chief political aide from 1982 to 1985, is that “his message is getting lost in the telling.”

“He has no consistent message,” Rollins said. “He says something on child care and then something on the environment. He’s coming out piecemeal. He needs three or four strong themes. But he sends a mixed message just like the (Walter F.) Mondale campaign of ‘84, when Mondale had about 25 different messages every week.”