Deadlock: Writers’ Strike Reaches the Crisis Stage : Sponsors in a Quandary Over Fate of Fall TV Season

By now, Richard Kostyra should have spent nearly $600 million.

That’s what his New York advertising firm, J. Walter Thompson, planned to spend during the next television season for ads on the major networks. By July, these are normally done deals.

“But for all intents and purposes,” said Kostyra, the agency’s U.S. director of media services, “I haven’t put down one dime yet.”

He expects eventually to spend every cent of it. But as the 17-week-old strike by the Writers Guild of America drags on, Kostyra and other media buyers from coast to coast all face similar headaches. Because they don’t know exactly what kinds of programming the networks are selling them, they’re putting off their buying decisions.

With no strike settlement in sight, the fate of the fall television season remains as fuzzy as the reception on a broken TV set. And that leaves plenty of confusion among ad agency media buyers. After all, these are the people who recommend where to place the ads--on television, radio or in print. At stake is an estimated $9 billion that advertisers annually spend on network television.

Generally, the executives who buy advertising say they still expect to spend most of their budgets on network television--even if the commercials just run alongside repeats of “Moonlighting” and “L. A. Law.” That’s because in most cases, advertisers are guaranteed a minimum number of viewers for the commercial time they buy. If the audience drops below a specific level, the networks must then provide additional advertising at no cost.

“It hasn’t turned into a crisis yet,” said Rance Crain, president and editor-in-chief of the trade magazine Advertising Age. “But if this drags on too long and network viewership drops precipitously, you’ll see advertisers trying all kinds of things like cable, print and, who knows, maybe even skywriting.”

Indeed, a number of advertisers are not only looking at alternatives--but they are also buying them. Some have purchased big blocks of time on cable television. Others have signed up with various talk shows, game shows and network news coverage that guarantee “fresh” programming. But among the most popular purchases is sports programming--particularly the World Series and the Summer Olympics, both on NBC.

In fact, some advertisers that have historically shied away from sporting events are now looking in that direction. Warner-Lambert, which makes such products as Listerine mouthwash and Trident chewing gum, has never been very big on Olympic advertising.

“But over the last few weeks,” said J. Walter Thompson’s Kostyra, “they’ve purchased a good chunk of Olympics time for corporate advertising. This is time they would not normally have bought.” Because of the writers strike, he explained, the Olympics will likely get a bigger audience than expected.

Joe Isuzu will also tell more lies this fall during some Olympic commercial breaks. When Isuzu’s ad firm--Della Femina, McNamee, WCRS--bought the commercial time last year, the possibility of a writers strike was just beginning to surface. “But you can bet that the people at Isuzu who decided to buy Olympics time are very glad they did,” said Ann Kalman, senior vice president and media director at the Los Angeles office of Della Femina.

Similarly, Transamerica Corp. has turned to the cable sports network ESPN, in hopes of finding an audience for its ads. Transamerica will advertise during ESPN’s Sunday night prime-time broadcasts of NFL football. “Because of the writers strike,” Kalman said, “ESPN has been able to sell a lot of time very quickly.”

The strike has also convinced Mattel’s ad agency, Ogilvy & Mather, to look at other options for its advertising. Normally, Ogilvy’s Los Angeles office spends about 85% of its total media budget on network television. That figure could drop below 75% this season, projects Ronald Reilly, senior vice president and executive media director.

Others, however, don’t have these options. Some clients have seasonal products that can’t wait to be advertised next winter. Others are locked into plans to roll out new products this fall and can’t delay their advertising either--even if the ads are shown with reruns.

For American Honda Motor Corp., “my client must have its ads on the air by Oct. 1,” said Gene Accas, director of network programming and purchasing at Rubin Postaer & Associates in Los Angeles. “We’ll be on with whatever programming the major networks offer, even if it’s 22 hours of old movies.”

Indeed, one New York ad firm tops all others by spending more than $1 billion annually for commercial time on the major networks. And it has no plans to change that. “Sure we could go to cable TV, but that’s already a mixture of repeat programming,” said Paul Isacsson, executive vice president and director of broadcast purchasing at Young & Rubicam. “Repeats on the major networks have an edge simply because they reach many more homes.”

Wherever they go to buy commercial time, media buyers say they can’t remember a season as confusing as this one.

“None of us have any idea when the new season will start,” lamented Charles Bachrach, senior vice president and director of network purchasing at Western International Media, one of the West Coast’s largest media buying companies. “Maybe,” he deadpanned, “it’s time to get into another business.”