The Times Poll : Dukakis Seen as Big Winner in California

Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis seems on the threshold of a lopsided victory in the California primary and in an early position to do what no other Democratic candidate has done in the last five presidential campaigns--carry the state in November.

The Los Angeles Times Poll has found Dukakis to be leading the Rev. Jesse Jackson by 2 to 1 among Californians likely to vote in the June 7 primary. The figures are Dukakis 61%, Jackson 30%, undecided 5% and other candidates 4%.

17-Point Edge

And, in the expected race between Dukakis and Vice President George Bush in November, the survey showed the Democrat to be running ahead by 17 points in California, 53% to 36% with 11% undecided.

Bush possibly could help himself a little in California by choosing Gov. George Deukmejian as his vice presidential running mate, the survey showed. But Bush would run almost as well in the state with New York Rep. Jack Kemp on the ticket.

The Times poll questioned 2,202 Californians by telephone in six days, ending Monday night. Of these, 1,486 were regarded as likely to vote in the primaries. They included 713 Democrats and 583 Republicans, plus 190 other registered voters. The margin of error for all likely voters is 3 percentage points in either direction. For Democrats, it is 5 percentage points.

The last time a Democratic candidate carried California in a presidential election, man had not yet walked on the moon, Ronald Reagan was only just beginning to think about running for governor and one-sixth of next month’s likely voters had not been born. The year was 1964 and the Democrat was President Lyndon B. Johnson.

A lot will happen politically between now and November, of course--nearly six months of highly visible campaigning, two national convention extravaganzas, the strategic selection of running mates--plus many non-political events that could shape voter opinions, such as the superpower summit meeting and the various twists and turns of the nation’s economy.

State Up for Grabs

But what the Times poll showed conclusively was that California no longer can be penciled automatically into the Republican victory column before the fall campaign begins. The state with the biggest prize of electoral votes is up for grabs in a Bush-Dukakis contest.

One major reason for the more level playing field is that, unlike five of the last seven presidential elections, no Californian will be heading the GOP ticket in 1988, as Ronald Reagan or Richard M. Nixon previously did. In fact, a Californian has been on the Republican ticket--either in the top spot or as the running mate--in eight of the last 10 elections.

There has been much speculation, therefore, that Bush might turn to California’s governor as his running mate. For months, Deukmejian has insisted that he could not accept such an offer because, if he were to be elected vice president, he would have to turn over the governor’s office to a Democrat. Bush has countered that Deukmejian’s reluctance will not deter him from seriously considering the governor.

Test Match-ups

But all the dialogue and jockeying aside, Deukmejian probably would be of only slight help to Bush, according to the Times’ survey. This was determined by matching Bush and Deukmejian against Dukakis and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. and then comparing that result with how Bush and Kemp would fare against Dukakis-Gore.

Placing Deukmejian on the ticket would help Bush by four percentage points, the poll showed. But the significance of this figure has to be measured against the poll’s 3-percentage-point margin of error. In the survey, a Bush-Deukmejian ticket would lose to Dukakis-Gore by eight points, and a Bush-Kemp combo would trail by 12.

One historical footnote: The last time the GOP chose a California governor for the vice presidency--Earl Warren in 1948--the ticket wound up losing the state to Democrat Harry S. Truman.

It is clear from this survey that Bush would run better against Dukakis when teamed with either Deukmejian or Kemp than he would in a hypothetical race against Dukakis with no running mates involved.

Jackson Would Cost Votes

The Times poll showed also that, if Dukakis were to choose Jackson instead of Gore as his running mate, it would cost him eight points in California. A Dukakis-Jackson ticket would beat Bush-Kemp by just four points, compared to a 12-point victory with Gore as the vice presidential candidate.

Based on the poll’s findings, Bush would seem to be carrying a lot of political baggage. He has high “negatives,” as the problem is referred to in political parlance.

Forty percent of those questioned viewed the vice president unfavorably--half of them “very” unfavorably. Among Democrats, who outnumber Republicans in California and therefore are vital to any GOP candidate’s chances in November, 61% looked on Bush unfavorably. Overall, 53% of those surveyed had a favorable impression of the vice president.

By comparison, Californians seem to have a very positive attitude toward Dukakis, with 67% viewing him favorably and just 17% unfavorably. And, although he is a newcomer politically to California, only 16% were not familiar enough with the New Englander to voice an opinion about him.

Also, in contrast to the Democrats’ highly negative attitude toward Bush, a solid majority of Republicans--56%--held a favorable impression of Dukakis, with only 24% stating an unfavorable opinion.

The attitude of Californians toward Jackson is about the same as it is toward Bush, according to the poll: 52% favorable, 39% unfavorable.

Reagan Popularity Down

And President Reagan, despite his being a Californian, now ranks alongside Bush and Jackson in “impression” ratings: 52% favorable, 41% unfavorable.

By comparison, Reagan was more popular in California when The Times conducted a statewide survey in October, 1986--before such controversies as the Iran-Contra scandal, the escalating problems of Atty. Gen. Edwin Meese III and all the “kiss and tell” books. His ratings then were 68% favorable, 29% unfavorable. And Reagan’s diminished esteem, if not turned around, could adversely affect his vice president in November.

In the Democratic primary campaign, the survey showed Jackson being favored by 18% of whites--and Dukakis by 19% of blacks. Latinos were siding with Dukakis over Jackson by 2 to 1.

The vast majority of whites who support Jackson regard themselves as liberals. But liberals support Dukakis by a 16-point margin--and moderates back him by a whopping 57 points.

When voters of both parties were asked what they regard as “the most important problem facing California today,” the overwhelming answer was “drugs.” It was chosen by 45% of those surveyed and nothing else came close--”gangs” and “education” followed at 11% each.

CALIFORNIA: GOP HAVEN NO LONGER? Although Democrats have carried California in a presidential election only once in the last 40 years (Lyndon B. Johnson beat Barry Goldwater in 1964), the Los Angeles Times Poll shows that the state in 1988 is anything but safe Republican territory.

The poll asked likely voters in California whether they would support Democrat Michael S. Dukakis or Republican George Bush if the election were held today. Then the two front-runners were paired with some prospective running mates--Dukakis with the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Sen. Albert Gore Jr., and Bush with Rep. Jack Kemp and Gov. George Deukmejian.

Dukakis vs. Bush (no running mate mentioned)

Dukakis 53%

Bush 36%

Undecided 11%

Dukakis-Jackson vs. Bush-Kemp

Dukakis-Jackson 47%

Bush-Kemp 43%

Undecided 10%

Dukakis-Gore vs. Bush-Kemp

Dukakis-Gore 51%

Bush-Kemp 39%

Undecided 10%

Dukakis-Gore vs. Bush-Deukmejian

Dukakis-Gore 49%

Bush-Deukmejian 41%

Undecided 10%