POLITICS 88 : Wooing Michigan Auto Workers : Dukakis Sets Sights on Blue-Collar Vote

FLINT, Mich. —  Jack Kreuger’s task is to shatter dreams: to convince auto workers that their high-wage, lifetime jobs may be gone forever.

“There’s so much denial--people thought General Motors would call them back and it’s just not happening,” said Kreuger, an adviser and counselor on job training and relocation for the United Auto Workers.

General Motors, the major employer in and around Flint, is following the lead of Chrysler and Ford in shrinking its operations to become a more efficient, more competitive company. The result is hard times. The jobless rate here is a staggering 18%, more than triple the national figure of 5.7%. “We need help from a President who can help good communities like Flint make a comeback,” said Daniel Kildee, chairman of the board of county commissioners and the grandson of a man who worked 30 years in a GM plant.

The ‘Miracle’ Message

Kildee was on the platform and Kreuger was in the audience at UAW local headquarters here recently to listen to a man they had not heard before, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, explain how he could be the President to lead Flint out of the economic wilderness.

Can the “Massachusetts miracle”--a jobless rate of 3.5%--be meaningful to Michigan? Dukakis, who proudly calls himself a full-employment Democrat, joked with the crowd about making the official presidential car a Buick LeSabre. (He drives a Chevrolet in Massachusetts.)

In this heavily unionized state, Dukakis must win the allegiance of blue-collar workers if he is to make a strong showing in the Democratic caucuses on Saturday. His goals are twofold: to win delegates and to demonstrate that he can revive the working class voters’ ardor for the traditional Democratic coalition.

Beyond Michigan lie New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, all with big blocs of blue-collar votes.

Economic Power Doubted

While the experts give Dukakis substantial praise for innovative policies in his own state, they see economic forces as often being too big for any governor to control.

Probably no governor, for example, could have done much to ease the pain in Michigan in recent years as the automobile industry, driving for greater productivity under the lash of foreign competition, has had to cut deeply into its work force. The Big Three companies produced about as many cars and trucks in Michigan last year as they did in 1979, but they did it with 116,000 fewer workers.

And Michigan still has some rough times ahead before any Massachusetts-like miracle can occur. In a sense, Massachusetts is a decade or more ahead in the transformation of its economy.

In 1975, both states had double-digit unemployment rates considerably above the national average. “Massachusetts was still going through the shakeout of the old New England economy, with textiles and leather and the old manufacturing base disappearing,” said Thomas Plewes, assistant commissioner at the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Massachusetts Advantages

But, thanks to its skilled work force and tremendous concentration of top-flight colleges and universities, Massachusetts was able to move into light manufacturing, service industries and high-technology work. Even during the deep recession of 1981-82, employment kept rising in Massachusetts.

Michigan, by contrast, has never fully recovered from the 1982 recession, Plewes said. Not until 1986 did total employment in the state rise above the level of 1979. The double whammy in Michigan was the economic slump nationwide--which cut demand for cars and trucks--combined with structural change, a permanent drive to raise productivity.

Manufacturing is still the principal engine that drives Michigan, but the focus now is on highly automated, high-value “smart “ manufacturing, said Mark Murray, director of research for the the state Department of Commerce. It means using robotics on the auto assembly lines, computer-assisted design and machines with “vision” to check the 35 holes in a door panel on a car.

Michigan is developing its own version of Silicon Valley, a region outside Detroit known as Automation Alley. High-wage engineering and business services are helping the economy expand and diversify, Murray said.

Long Way to Go

Yet there is a long way to go. Statewide, the jobless rate last month was 8.4%.

Dukakis expresses optimism that he can help Michigan and other “rust belt” states achieve a new prosperity by working closely with local and state officials to apply some of the techniques that succeeded in Massachusetts.

He has called for a $500-million special fund to help new and young businesses. The federal money would be leveraged as a small contribution to encourage much bigger private investment.

And he would cut military spending and redirect the funds to areas such as mass transit for communities and high-speed rail systems.

“If we cut out those two super-carrier task forces the President is asking for, we could do the equivalent of nine Los Angeles transit systems,” Dukakis said in an interview.

The federal funds newly applied to mass transit would give a boost to American manufacturing, said Dukakis, who complains that he must go abroad to buy subway cars for Boston’s system.

Recovery Up to State

Dukakis may be able to help somewhat, but Michigan still must rebound on its own no matter who is President, the experts believe.

“Government policies alone cannot transform economies in the way New England has been transformed,” said Richard Munson, executive director of the Northeast-Midwest Institute, a research organization sponsored by public officials.

He added, however, that “public policies can do a good deal to assure a favorable economic climate.”

The audience Dukakis was wooing in the UAW hall was looking for someone to help Flint bring down its unemployment rate but not yet willing to give their hearts completely to Dukakis or anybody else.

“I heard he helped things in Massachusetts,” said Annie Genske. “I saw a good handbill about him, but I don’t know how any person can provide jobs unless they help start a business.”

Robert A. Rosenblatt reported this story during a recent trip to Michigan.