GOP Nominating Process Gets Shaky Michigan Start

LANSING, Mich. —  The process of nominating the next Republican candidate for the presidency got off to its earliest start in modern political history in the Michigan primary Tuesday under a haze of confusion and controversy.

Hours after the polls closed at 8 p.m., none of the organizers for the three presidential prospects competing here--Vice President George Bush, television evangelist Pat Robertson and New York Rep. Jack Kemp--could provide significant returns in the contest for precinct delegates who will eventually shape Michigan’s delegation to the GOP national convention.

The confusion stemmed from the fact that several hundred thousand primary voters had no way of telling from their ballots what connection there was between this election and the three as-yet-undeclared presidential candidates.

The candidates were attempting to win more than 10,000 precinct delegates from all over the state, but, because the delegates are last on the ballot, returns on these races were slow to come in.

The only results of consequence Tuesday night were from an incomplete NBC sampling of precinct delegate contests, which showed 43% of the winners uncommitted, 34% for Bush, 17% for Kemp and 7% for Robertson.

But Robertson strategist Marlene Elwell claimed her side had scored some successes. She said that here in Lansing, the state capital, the Robertson organization had won 17 out of 30 delegate slots.

Together, the three presidential prospects and their supporters have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars and countless days trying to get the voters to elect precinct delegates favorably disposed toward their respective White House ambitions.

However, this proved to be a hard point to get across to the voters in an election whose main purpose was the nominating of a Republican candidate for governor to oppose Democratic Gov. James J. Blanchard.

A statewide exit poll of Republican voters by WDIV-TV of Detroit showed that only 28% of the voters surveyed knew which precinct delegate was associated with which presidential candidate.

When asked whether they had even bothered to vote for precinct delegates, 28% said no and 8% did not remember.

Controversy developed even before the polls closed, when Bush’s managers here released to the press a list of more than 1,900 precinct delegate candidates in contested races who were said to be favorable to Bush. At a subsequent press conference, Robertson’s strategist contended that, after reviewing part of Bush’s list, about 15% of the delegates claimed by the Bush forces were actually loyal to Robertson.

Bush Ranks High

The precinct delegate contests aside, exit polls suggested that Bush ranked high among the state’s Republicans. In an NBC exit poll, about 2,000 voters were asked their choice for presidential nominee, and about 40% favored Bush. None of his potential opponents scored in double figures.

For Robertson, on the other hand, some of the exit poll results were strikingly negative. The NBC survey of more than 2,500 voters indicated that 45% rated Robertson unfavorably, compared to only 20% who viewed him favorably.

Moreover, of the one-third of those surveyed who described themselves as “born-again” Christians, 37% voted for Bush, as against only 23% for Robertson.

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Blanchard easily won nomination to a second term. In the GOP contest, William Lucas, the black former Democrat who is the elected executive officer of Wayne County (Detroit), was victorious. With 39% of the precincts reporting, Lucas had 43% of the vote, followed by millionaire Richard P. Chrysler--no relation to the Big Three auto family--with 35%, state Rep. Colleen Engler of Mount Pleasant 12% and Oakland County Executive Daniel Murphy, with 10%.

The collision in this state between supporters of three prospective presidential candidates two years before the national nominating convention was a result of a combination of circumstances, some calculated and some accidental.

To begin with, Michigan Republican leaders were determined to increase their influence in the GOP presidential competition by getting an early start in the nominating process. Their resolve was strengthened by memories of the 1980 campaign, when the Michigan primary was held in May. In that primary, Bush defeated Ronald Reagan, but the result turned out to be meaningless because Reagan had by then clinched the nomination.

Activity Helps Fund Raising

Another reason for turning the state primary into an early 1988 presidential battleground was financial. With the party low on funds, Michigan GOP leaders reckoned--correctly as it turned out--that offering an early opportunity to win convention delegates and media attention would attract presidential candidates, whose appearances in the state would put money in the party’s coffers.

At first, it was generally assumed that Bush would capture most of the delegates in Michigan with ease, but Bush’s supporters became concerned about indications that Kemp was seeking to organize his support in Michigan.

To avoid being ‘blind-sided,’ as Bush put it, the vice president’s backers stepped up their efforts and Bush made frequent trips to the state, ostensibly to help other GOP candidates.

Meanwhile, backers of Robertson began recruiting conservative Christians to run as precinct delegate candidates. Robertson’s organization achieved a stunning surprise and projected Robertson on the national scene by enlisting nearly as many delegate candidates as Bush and substantially more than Kemp.

Kemp Recedes

The Robertson and Bush organizations became the dominant forces in the campaign, pushing Kemp into the background.

Despite all the activity and expense, the meaning of the contest remained ambiguous because of the confusion over delegate loyalty.

Adding to the confusion was the malapportionment of precinct delegate slots among Michigan’s 83 counties.

Each county’s weight in the ultimate selection of the national convention delegation will be determined according to the county’s share of the statewide Republican vote. But party leaders in each county were allowed to create as many precinct delegate slots as they wished to put on the ballot in Tuesday’s vote.

Party leaders in Genesee County (Flint) took the greatest advantage of this option so that the county, which contributed only 4% of the total vote in the state for President Reagan in 1984 has more than 3,800 precinct delegate slots--nearly 25% of the total number.

Thus each delegate elected in Genesee County will have proportionately much less influence on the nominating process than delegates elected in most other counties.

There were a number of delegate slots with no candidate on the ballot, and the next stage in the selection process will take place next week when delegates elected Tuesday will assemble at county conventions, at which the vacant precinct delegate slots will be filled.

At subsequent county conventions, to be held early in 1988, delegates to the state convention will be selected. It is this state convention that will select the 77-vote Michigan contingent to the national convention.

Voting in Other States

Voters went to the polls Tuesday in Missouri and Kansas also. In Missouri, they nominated Democratic Lt. Gov. Harriett Woods and former Republican Gov. Christopher Bond to vie for the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Thomas F. Eagleton.

In Kansas, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole easily defeated political newcomer Shirley Landis, a Kansas City housewife, to win nomination for a fourth term. Five little-known Democrats were seeking a chance to face Dole, and Guy MacDonald, an unemployed schoolteacher was leading with 31% of the vote. In the gubernatorial race, seven Republicans sought to run against Lt. Gov. Tom Docking to succeed Democratic Gov. John W. Carlin. Larry Jones, a Wichita businessman was leading with 36% of the vote, followed by state House Speaker Mike Hayden, with 31%.