Wall Street counts its winnings from 2009, and wonders: What’s the encore?
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Wall Street today closed out a wild year with a last-minute bout of apprehension -- fitting enough, given the gigantic questions that loom for the economy and financial system in 2010.
The Dow Jones industrial average finished the last session of 2009 with a loss of 120.46 points, or 1.1%, to 10,428.05. More than half of the decline occurred in the final 15 minutes of trading.
For the year the Dow gained 1,651.66 points, or 18.8%, the biggest annual advance since it rose 25.3% in 2003.
Broader indexes had a better year: The S&P 500 rose 23.4%, the Russell 2,000 small-stock index surged 25.2% and the Nasdaq composite jumped 43.9% (thank you, Apple and Google, in particular).
But of course, those returns make the year look far easier than it was on many investors’ psyches.
We had to endure the abject desperation of January and February, when the market was gripped by fear that recession would turn into depression and that some huge chunk of the banking system would be nationalized.
By March 9 the Dow and other indexes were at 12-year lows, and Wall Street was bereft of hope.
Then, for reasons known only to the market gods, the selling wave that began in September 2008 exhausted itself and buyers began to get the upper hand. They’ve pretty much been in control since.
If what the bulls saw was a turnaround coming in the global economy, they got it right, of course: Growth has revived worldwide since the second quarter, thanks in no small part to the trillions of dollars in financial support supplied by governments and central banks from Washington to Frankfurt to Beijing.
The Dow has soared 59.3% from its March 9 closing low of 6,547.05. The S&P is up 64.8% since then, the Nasdaq is up 78.9% and the Russell 2,000 has rocketed 82.2%.
Though investors have to be grateful for stocks’ comeback, the rally since March -- which hasn’t suffered even a 10% pullback along the way -- has been agonizing for the unknown numbers of people who sold out during the market’s collapse and have been too terrified to get back in. You know who you are.
And even with this year’s spectacular surge, stocks remain deep in the red when factoring in the 2008 meltdown. The Dow still is off 26.4% from its record high in October 2007; the S&P 500 is down 28.8% from its peak that same month.
Now, what about 2010?
In the last few months of this year nearly every money manager I know was highly confident about the rally continuing through today. But that’s where the consensus ended.
Come January, the onus will be on the bulls to show why stocks should go higher. Can the economic recovery -- and rebound in corporate earnings -- continue even if governments and central banks begin to pull back on their support? Will companies begin to hire again, putting a dent in the horrendous unemployment rate? Will the housing market show more signs that it has indeed bottomed? Can the financial system withstand the coming shocks from bank losses on commercial real estate loans?
All of these questions, and more, will be in sharp focus beginning Monday.
Until then – happy new year to all.
-- Tom Petruno