O.C.’s high-paying jobs and job growth are in decline, Chapman economic forecasters say

There is job growth in Orange County, but conditions are not as sunny as that might suggest.

Since 2007, the county has been losing high-paying jobs in favor of lower-paying ones and, overall, is lagging behind the rest of the United States in cumulative job growth, economists from Chapman University announced during their 38th annual Economic Forecast Update conference Tuesday in Orange.

The event, meant as an update and a revision to the university’s predictions announced in December, suggested that since just before the Great Recession, Orange County has been steadily losing portions of its strong labor fields, such as manufacturing and information technology, but gaining in lower-paying ones, such as hospitality, education and health.

While the county lost about 16% of those IT jobs between 2007 and this year, statewide, the sector has increased by 4% during the same period, with Silicon Valley a particular stronghold. Chapman forecasters dubbed the Bay Area tech and start-up hub a “pocket of strength” that contradicts shortcomings apparent elsewhere in the Golden State.

They noted that average annual wages in Silicon Valley are nearly $188,000, compared with about $57,000 statewide.

Orange County is expected to see a decline in overall job growth – 2.6% this year compared with 3.2% last year. A similar decline is expected for personal income growth.

The high cost of living in Orange County is contributing to a small but noteworthy departure of residents, according to Chapman.

“Like Los Angeles, more people are leaving Orange County for other parts of the U.S. than those from the U.S. moving to the county,” forecasters said in a news release. “Although the number of people leaving each year is relatively low, the rate of outflow has doubled in the last two years.”

Chapman forecast that prices in a relatively tight supply of unsold housing will push up by 4.6% by the end of this year, higher than last year’s 2.7% bump.

Tuesday’s update conference was dedicated to Chapman economics professor Esmael “Essie” Adibi, who died in April at age 63. Adibi co-ran Chapman’s economic conference with the university’s president, Jim Doti.

The conference was held at the private university’s newly unveiled Marybelle and Sebastian P. Musco Center for the Arts. It marked the event’s departure from Costa Mesa, where it had been held at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts for many years.

--

Bradley Zint, [email protected]

Twitter: @BradleyZint