Hansen: How many people visit Laguna? Good question

As with economics and divorce court, any city project hinges on one simple requirement: Give me a number.

How big should a new parking structure be? Give me the number of cars.

How should we redesign a dusty downtown for more housing and life? Give me a height limit.

How can we optimize our business mix to accommodate residents and tourists? Give me the visitor statistics.

Unfortunately, all of these hypothetical scenarios start with a clear understanding of how many people actually visit Laguna Beach.

But no one really knows for sure.

The city website says Laguna gets 3 million visitors a year.

The marketing group Visit Laguna Beach says about 6 million.

For comparison, the Grand Canyon — in all its legendary glory — doesn’t even get 5 million.

“During the summer, several million visitors are drawn to the resort environment for its picturesque beaches, art festivals and the Pageant of the Masters,” the city writes. Later it gives the number 3 million, which apparently qualifies as “several” million.

The point is not to be persnickety, but the facts are a little loose — surprisingly so.

From hotel occupancy tax to restaurant bar tabs, the numbers are important to Laguna, which survives on tourists. Stay with me here while we crunch some numbers.

According to the California State Board of Equalization, Laguna Beach gets a whopping 75% of its taxable sales through retail and food services.

By comparison, Seal Beach gets 63% through those means. Irvine, with a large mall, gets 64%.

It’s no surprise that Laguna does not have a diversified tax base because of its size. There are no major industries or significant general merchandise outlets.

In Laguna, it’s all about hotels and restaurants. Four of the top 10 employers are hotels, with the Montage topping the list with nearly 800 employees, representing almost 5% of the city’s total employment, according to the city’s 2014 annual report.

Which brings us back to the number of visitors.

Visit Laguna says that out of the 6 million annual visitors, 94% of them are “day-trippers,” meaning they drive in and stay only for the day. Here are the stats based on a 2007 consultant report:

• Total number of visitors: 6.13 million.

• Day visitors: 5.76 million.

• Hotel visitors: 261,489

• Private residence visitors: 85,010

It’s important to note too that Laguna has only 1,300 total hotel rooms, which is why during the summer its hotels are at capacity (and able to charge the rates they do, by the way).

So the 6 million-plus visitors equals an average of 16,794 people per day. We know, however, that most people visit during the summer. So if we spread the average accordingly and assign 75% of the visitors to May through September, we’re up to nearly 30,000 visitors a day.

Add the 22,000 people who live here, and you have the usual summer gridlock.

In fact, the city’s Transportation, Circulation and Mobility Element, which was written more than 15 years ago, says the summer daily counts are much higher.

“It is estimated by the Laguna Beach Marine Safety Department that beach attendance in this community reaches approximately 3 million visitors annually,” the city says. “On a summer day, beach attendance can approach 70,000 individuals.”

But here’s where it gets even more complicated — and suspicious.

Let’s continue to do the new math. If on any given summer day we have roughly 70,000 people, where are they parking? We only have 1,970 total parking spots in downtown and the canyon.

Even if we count only visitors and are generous with the extended parking, that’s about 20 people per car. Apparently, most people who drive to Laguna arrive in party buses.

Furthermore, the actual traffic counts do not support these 5.76 million “day-tripper” numbers. Coast Highway and Laguna Canyon carry about 36,000 to 40,000 daily trips. It’s pretty consistent, meaning people are either passing through, or they are actual residents commuting to their jobs.

The bottom line is that no one is denying that Laguna Beach is crowded, especially during the summer. Most of its key intersections are at a level of service known as “F” in traffic terms, which means exactly how it sounds.

But we could help ourselves start to solve these issues by coming up with better core statistics to define the real scope of the problems.

In other words, give me a number — a real number.

Only then can we turn a number into a value with meaning, context and vision.

DAVID HANSEN is a writer and Laguna Beach resident. He can be reached at [email protected].