A gentler el nino

WEATHER TIDBITS

It’s now official, el nino is back. Sort of.

The first atmospheric/oceanic phenomena of the new millennium does

meet the minimum requirements for an el nino designation. It’s

actually more of a nino in name only since it lacks the explosive

potential of it’s predecessors.

The neo-nino really can’t compare to the ninos we’ve known in the

past. It’s not nearly as powerful as the el ninos of ‘82-’83 or

‘97-’98 with their unprecedented influence on world-wide weather. It

is considerably weaker than the more moderate scale el ninos, (‘66,

‘72, ‘76, ‘85, ‘90, ‘92) which have had less wide spread but still

locally impressive impact.

No, the 2002 el nino is a kinder gentler nino. It’s more of a

good-natured and neighborly nino, one that you might not even notice.

It is true that the new nino has raised tropical ocean temps and

decreased tropical trade winds like all ninos must do, but the water

isn’t that much warmer than normal now, nor the wind that much

lighter than average.

So what can we expect from this normal nino? Not much. Maybe the

nouveau nino will warm the water a bit more, generate a few more

storms and whip up some extra waves. But for overall effect el nino

2002 is looking like a minor event.

* DENNIS McTIGHE is a Laguna Beach resident. He earned a

bachelor’s degree in Earth Sciences from UC San Diego and was a U.S.

Air Force weatherman at Hickman AFB, Hawaii.