Open primary has county politicos guessing

Greg Risling

In its heyday, a beauty pageant was known as a grand affair, pitting

gorgeous woman wearing the latest fashions and featuring their favorite

talents. The crown went to the contestant with the best overall

performance.

That may not be the case come March 7, when California residents are

asked to make their choice for president in the state primary.

Because the state allows registered voters to cross party lines and

choose any listed candidate, political insiders have dubbed this year’s

primary as a newfangled beauty contest where the real winner may not be

the one who garners the respective majority.

The grand prize is delegates, the political version of a diamond-studded

tiara. Get enough delegates in the primary and a candidate will likely

win the party’s nomination.

In California, where the stakes are high and delegates are many, voters

crossing party lines may be stunned to learn their say may not mean much.

Under state guidelines, the popular vote will be counted and a winner

will be determined. However, the ballots will also be coded with voters’

party affiliations and a second tally will be taken. The candidate who

wins the delegates hinges on the result of the vote among registered

party members.

The tighter of the two party races appears to be the battle for the

Republican nomination. Texas Gov. George W. Bush is hoping to stave off

the advance of Arizona Sen. John McCain, who scored a double victory

Tuesday in his home state and Michigan.

But both Democrats and Republicans are worried that many residents are

unaware of the voting process.

“It’s a double-edged sword, really,” said Tom Fuentes, chairman of the

Orange County Republican Party. “It’s an invigorating process to get more

voters out. But there is a lot of misunderstanding about the primary

process. Unfortunately, that makes it all the more complex.”

The opportunity to cross political lines during the state primary was

pushed by Rep. Tom Campbell (R-San Jose) several years ago.

Campbell, who is running for a U.S. Senate seat, lost a primary in 1992

and may have benefited from voters outside his party. Voters in 1996

approved a state proposition to hold open primaries. Opponents tried to

block the open primary, but a U.S. District Court judge upheld the

voters’ decision.

Michael Schroeder, an Irvine attorney and past chairman of the state’s

Republican Party, testified four years ago about the hazards of an open

primary where crossover is allowed.

Given the importance of this year’s presidential race, Schroeder

predicted people may be disenfranchised after they learn the results.

“We have been trying to get out the word about the primary,” he said.

“The respective parties weren’t responsible for this.”

Schroeder conducted a survey in 1996 and found that the crossover into

other parties was less than 5% among voters. He figures the primary won’t

be adversely affected by the relatively new law.

“I expect a big turnout of voters, but I think there will be little

crossover,” he said. “I don’t think you will see any effect on the final

results.”

Other political activists don’t agree.

Jim Toledano, a leading member of the Orange County Democratic Party,

said the opposition has the most to lose in this election. Toledano said

McCain may win the popular vote in California, but thinks Bush will

receive the party’s 162 delegates.

“The Republican Party is headed for another train wreck,” he said.

“Voters don’t pay a whole lot of attention to technicalities. McCain will

draw a lot of crossover votes. And, when people realize their votes don’t

have anything to do with the delegate aspect, there is going to be a

major backlash.”