Showers expected through weekend; heaviest rainfall expected Monday

Orange County residents may want to stay indoors this weekend as scattered rain showers are projected to begin Saturday, according to the National Weather Service.

As of Thursday afternoon, forecasts indicate that rain is expected to roll in in waves, said Brian Adams, a meteorologist with the San Diego station. The first wave will sweep through Southern California early Saturday morning, bringing with it scattered showers all the way through evening that same day.

Adams said there may be a chance for thunderstorms throughout the night into early Sunday morning, but that Sunday by and large would stay dry. Monday is predicted to see the heaviest downpour, with rain projected to last most of the day.

Rainfall is expected to be around 1 to 2 inches with the heaviest precipitation in the foothills of the Santa Ana Mountains and in the southernmost part of the county. Wind gusts should remain relatively low at around 15 to 20 mph in coastal Orange County, making for a breezy weekend though not much more than average.

“We have a large area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the core of it will be lifting towards Northern California and the Pacific Northwest; but because it’s so strong, it will be generating waves [of rain] down to Southern California,” Adams said. “There will be a little bit of moisture from that, and the real axis is split between the Northwest, Southern California and parts of Baja California.”

Adams said no two storms are alike this time of the year, but this January is drier than last year, where rain fell anywhere from 150% to 230% higher than average at sites throughout the county. Comparatively, this January has been dry, with National Weather Service sites reporting in at half of what is typically expected at this point in the “wet year,” a complete inverse of what meteorologists expected based on the La Niña-El Niño cycles.

“Last year, we were in the La Niña phase, where it’s expected to favor typically drier weather. This year, we’re in the El Niño phase, where it’s supposed to be wetter, but that hasn’t been the case so far,” Adams said.

The weather is expected to be dry in the two weeks following Monday’s rain.