Oscar contest: Take your pick

My Oscar prediction for this year: No matter which of the many nominees take home the gold, hard feelings will abound.

Within hours of the nominations being announced Jan. 15, Entertainment Weekly posted a story with the headline “Everything is not awesome” — an overt reference to the shocking omission of “The Lego Movie” from the Best Animated Feature Film category, but also a dig at the acute lack of diversity among the nominees. Slate began its Oscar nominations story with the exact same sentence. It seems that that “Lego” tune — which, ironically, is used in the film as a parody of complacency — has provided the one-liner of the moment.

The 20 acting nominees didn’t include a single non-white performer, not even David Oyelowo for his acclaimed turn as Martin Luther King Jr. in “Selma.” That film’s director, Ava DuVernay, who some expected to make history as the first black female nominee in her category, went unnamed. For that matter, all the eight Best Picture nominees focus on male characters, with the closest to a woman-centric story being “The Theory of Everything,” for which Felicity Jones scored a Best Actress nod for playing Stephen Hawking’s long-suffering wife.

If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that all the surprises hint at the possibility of a few upsets — always the most fun part of Oscar night. (And remember, for all their puffed-up importance, the Oscars are a show, as notable for the host’s performance and the accidental flubs as they are for the films that actually win.) Will “The Grand Budapest Hotel” trump “Boyhood” for Best Picture? Will a film you’ve never heard of take the prize that might have gone to “Lego”?

No and no, probably. But if you think you can handicap the Oscar race, then step up and cast your votes in our annual Times Community News competition. Between now and Feb. 22, we’ll accept your guesses at [email protected], with “Oscar picks” in the subject line.

When Oscar night rolls around, we’ll find out if you topped my predictions for Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress. And if you’d rather just complain about who or what didn’t get nominated, we’re always up for letters to the editor.

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Best Picture

A year ago, I would have sworn that “Selma” was unstoppable. But politics and timing seem to count a great deal for Oscar voters (consider Paul Newman and Al Pacino going winless for decades, then finally copping Best Actor for career-non-highlights “The Color of Money” and “Scent of a Woman,” respectively), and since the similarly themed “12 Years a Slave” took the top prize last year, the Academy will likely honor a much different film that has led the pack for months: Richard Linklater’s innovative “Boyhood.”

With DuVernay’s period piece garnering just two nods, only “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” and “Budapest” look to have an outside chance of pulling an upset. The former, though, may be too dark and surreal for some, while Wes Anderson’s stylized caper saga, clever though it is, lacks the emotional pull of Linklater’s epic portrait of childhood.

The pick: “Boyhood”

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Best Director

Unlike schoolteachers, Oscar voters don’t give separate marks for quality and effort — meaning that the two sometimes factor equally on the ballot. In that case, Linklater, who spent 12 years tracking the same group of actors, dwarfs all competition for “Boyhood.” Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s dazzling work on “Birdman” is certainly award-worthy, and few filmmakers have a style as distinctive as Anderson’s. But when it comes to wooing Academy voters, sometimes size does matter, and 12 years sounds big enough.

The pick: Richard Linklater

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Best Actor

Here’s the least predictable category, with Michael Keaton (“Birdman”) and Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”) having taken the Golden Globes. Keaton has seniority — and a comeback story — on his side, while Redmayne pulled off an astonishing physical transformation. Since Keaton has paid more dues, I’ll give him a slight edge. That said, while we’re on the subject of snubs: Couldn’t the Academy have spared a nomination for “Boyhood’s” Ellar Coltrane, who donated most of his, well, boyhood to playing a single role?

The pick: Michael Keaton

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Best Actress

With only one performance in a Best Picture nominee, this category might seem up for grabs — if Julianne Moore hadn’t been nominated unsuccessfully four times in the past. A win for her turn as the Alzheimer’s patient in “Still Alice” will serve as a career prize as well, and none of the other four nominees seems to have the momentum to topple her.

The pick: Julianne Moore

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Best Supporting Actor

This is a particularly strong batch of nominees, with Edward Norton doing flashy but nuanced work as the egotistical actor in “Birdman” and Ethan Hawke pulling off an impressive character arc as the wayward father in “Boyhood.” Still, J.K. Simmons has steadily racked up honors as the sadistic music teacher in “Whiplash,” so to anyone who predicts a win for him on Oscar night, I can only say: good job.

The pick: J.K. Simmons

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Best Supporting Actress

Meryl Streep won Best Actress recently for “The Iron Lady,” so she may be back to perennial-nominee status until 2045 or so. Emma Stone’s monologue in “Birdman” about the relevance of Keaton’s washed-up character is a tour de force. But the moment Patricia Arquette delivered her heart rending speech late in “Boyhood” about the disappointments of life, I thought she had the Oscar all wrapped up, and I still do.

The pick: Patricia Arquette