These battleground states will decide our next president

Florida is where close presidential contests are won or lost, sometimes by razor-thin margins. (See: Bush vs. Gore and the hanging chad).

Out of all the battleground states, it has the most electoral votes, and there are signs that Clinton is positioned to edge out a victory here. For starters, the state’s significant Latino population is changing — there are more Puerto Ricans, who often lean Democratic, and fewer Cuban Americans, who are more reliable Republican voters.

And then there are the get-out-the-vote efforts. So far registered Democrats are returning mail ballots at almost the same rate as registered Republicans, an improvement from four years ago, according to the Elections Project at the University of Florida.

Could Trump still win here? The part-time Floridian, whose Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach has been the site of numerous campaign events, needs turnout among black and Latino voters to lag behind previous elections. That’s unlikely to happen.

Ohio has a well-earned reputation as a political bellwether — it’s voted for the winner in every presidential contest except one since 1944.

But this year could be different. First, the state’s population is less representative of the nation than it used to be, becoming older and whiter as the rest of the country diversifies. That should be a boost for Trump, and he’s made a relentless appeal to blue-collar workers anxious about the long decline in manufacturing jobs.

At the same time, Trump is running into other political headwinds in Ohio. The state’s popular Republican governor, John Kasich, has refused to endorse him, and even the state party chairman only recently said he’ll vote for Trump.

North Carolina tends to be out of Democrats’ reach in presidential elections — Obama won, barely, in 2008, then lost in 2012.

But Clinton seems intent on turning the state blue, returning there repeatedly after the first debate and dispatching high-profile supporters such as President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama. 

A major issue in the state has been protests in Charlotte after police fatally shot a black man, pulling the city into a nationwide debate over race and criminal justice. It’s possible the political ripples could benefit Clinton, who has pushed for policing reforms and is counting on strong support from black voters.

Trump, on the other hand, has stuck to a law-and-order message that could prove appealing to white voters upset by the unrest.

The vast cornfields of Iowa are fertile terrain for Trump. It’s one of the whitest states in the country, a boost for a candidate who has struggled with black, Latino and Asian voters.

Trump could also benefit from a united Republican front that has eluded him in some other battlegrounds. The state’s governor and religious leaders have embraced him despite his most controversial comments about women, Muslims and Mexicans. 

Clinton doesn’t have a strong track record in the state. She lost the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses in 2008 when she ran against Obama, then narrowly edged out Bernie Sanders this year. Now she’s hoping a strong voter turnout effort helps her grind out a victory, but so far her early voting numbers have lagged behind Obama’s in 2012. 

Pennsylvania has been a blue state for more than two decades, reliably supporting Democratic presidential candidates since 1992. But when the general election started, there were concerns that Trump could boost his numbers with white, working-class voters in places that haven’t felt the benefits of the recent economic rebound.

That doesn’t seem to have materialized, and Clinton has maintained a strong base of support among black voters in places like Philadelphia. The city is such a Democratic bastion that Mitt Romney didn’t earn a single vote in 59 precincts in 2012.

In addition, Clinton’s campaign has set its sights on the Philadelphia suburbs, where Republicans are usually more competitive. But Trump is struggling to get the support of white women and college-educated voters, giving Democrats a chance to run up their numbers.

It wasn’t long ago that Democrats were ready to write off Colorado. Before 2008, Republicans had won the state nine out of the previous 10 presidential elections.

But Colorado has been rapidly transformed by an influx of Latinos and young, highly educated transplants — demographics that make it a much safer state for Clinton.

Also hurting Trump is his low support among women disgusted with his sexist remarks. Even though he may be able count on support from conservative strongholds like Colorado Springs, the growing suburbs around Denver could be slipping out of Republicans’ reach.

The Trump name has been big in Las Vegas — it looms over the glittering city from the facade of the candidate’s hotel.

Winning the state is another matter, however. Nevada is home to an increasing number of Latinos who have been turned off by Trump’s hard-line immigration stance and his derogatory comments about Mexicans and other immigrants.

The Clinton campaign has invested heavily in a state organization to balance out the enthusiasm among Trump supporters. Voters here have a strong anti-establishment streak, something the New York businessman and first-time candidate could turn to his advantage.

Democrats have regarded Georgia like a big, fat, juicy peach, just waiting to ripen and fall.

Their expectation has been the increased clout of the state's growing black, Latino and Asian populations would turn this reddest of states blue sometime over the next decade or so.

The presence of Donald Trump atop the GOP ticket, and his poor standing among women voters, has convinced Democrats that Hillary Clinton has a shot to win in November, though it remains something less than an even-money bet.

The last Democrat to carry the state was Bill Clinton, who was Arkansas governor at the time — and his winning margin, .59% — was blink-and-you’ve-missed-it small.

Arizona is not usually a place people talk about at this point in a presidential election. Republicans have won the state nearly every time since 1952. The lone exception: Bill Clinton’s victory there in 1996.

But Donald Trump’s steady slide in the polls has made Arizona vulnerable to turning blue this year. He’s lost the support of Sen. John McCain, and he was never endorsed by the state’s other senator, Jeff Flake.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is trying to take advantage of a rare opportunity, with appearances by First Lady Michelle Obama, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Chelsea Clinton. A Democratic victory in the state would likely rely heavily on Arizona’s growing number of Latinos, who have heavily favored Clinton over Trump.